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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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Just measured a hair under 4" here in Orchard Park. Some of the lightest, fluffiest snow I have experienced in a long time! Can't really say I expected this. Steady snow continues to fall, but it has lightened considerably in the last 30 minutes. Maybe we can eek our way up to 5" by the time all is said and done.

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they should probably upgrade to a les advisory in central erie county too.  Nice band running from Hamburg to Blasdell through Lackawanna into Elma visible on the composite radar.  Maybe 3 to 4" here?  Just a guess.  

 

 

AS FLOW VEERS NORTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ENCROACHING

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO

BAND TO MOVE ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS BAND MOVE ONSHORE...WE

COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES OF

NIAGARA/ORLEANS/MONROE COUNTIES TO PICK UP A QUICK FEW INCHES OF LOW

DENSITY SNOW...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A MESOSCALE LOW OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE IS

SPREADING SNOW INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT

SNOW TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO OVER HE NEXT COUPLE OF

HOURS WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF FLUFF. FARTHER

SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING

COUNTIES...THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AS THE MESOLOW MAKES ITS WAY

ONSHORE SHOULD ADD ENOUGH TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO PUSH TOTALS

ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE UPSLOPE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...AS

SUCH THE LES ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO WYOMING COUNTY.

~NWS BUF

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they should probably upgrade to a les advisory in central erie county too.  Nice band running from Hamburg to Blasdell through Lackawanna into Elma visible on the composite radar.  Maybe 3 to 4" here?  Just a guess.  

 

Dumb question, do they ever advise for central Erie? I see Northern and Southern Erie on forecast zones and advisories. Driving south into the immediate S suburbs from where we live, the sensible weather is so often dramatically different that it would make sense to issue advisories separately.

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it's being missed on the base reflectivity...but it's more noticeable on the composite.  

Thanks, I guess WIVB's radar really isn't the best ;)

 

Dumb question, do they ever advise for central Erie?

I don't think so, I've never seen it. It's probably too much of a pain to get so specific with warnings, etc...

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November 2013 is likely to go down as the coldest November since 1997 at least, and making a run at the coldest since 1996.  It will not be possible to be colder than 1996.  It should be approximately between 3 and 3.2F below normal.

and the snowiest November since 2005 where 17.9" of snow fell. I have a shot in OP of breaking that record, with my November total here as of 9:45pm standing at 16.8" .
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and the snowiest November since 2005 where 17.9" of snow fell. I have a shot in OP of breaking that record, with my November total here as of 9:45pm standing at 16.8" .

well given that OP might have gotten more than 17.9" in November 2005, I'm not sure that's a fair comparison lol.  2005-2006 was a pretty crappy winter, if it means anything.  

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Looks like the band has finally contracted closer to the lakeshore thanks to the diminishing boundary layer winds, per the original expectations. I think 4" will do it for my location. Maybe places farther west can score a little more overnight.

 

It was nice to come home and witness 10" of total snowfall over the last three days (6" synoptic, 4" lake effect). It's deep winter out there right now with approximately 9" of snow on the ground and a temp of 23F. Not bad for November!

 

Tomorrow I'm flying out to Fargo ND for a work trip, but I'll be back in Western NY from 12/22-12/26. Hoping for a real whopper of a lake effect storm around then! This week was a nice jump start to the season. 

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Looks like the band has finally contracted closer to the lakeshore thanks to the diminishing boundary layer winds, per the original expectations. I think 4" will do it for my location. Maybe places farther west can score a little more overnight.

 

It was nice to come home and witness 10" of total snowfall over the last three days (6" synoptic, 4" lake effect). It's deep winter out there right now with approximately 9" of snow on the ground and a temp of 23F. Not bad for November!

 

Tomorrow I'm flying out to Fargo ND for a work trip, but I'll be back in Western NY from 12/22-12/26. Hoping for a real whopper of a lake effect storm around then! This week was a nice jump start to the season. 

You should visit more often. :whistle:

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Haha, my visits home always do seem to coincide with a snowy period...at least within the last few years. I'll try to keep it going!

we welcome you back with open arms for Christmas! And New Years, and Martin Luther King Day, and Groundhog Day, and Lincons Birthday, and Valentines Day, and Presidents Day, and Mardi Gras, and Saint Patricks Day and April Fools day and Easter. I know its alot of traveling but it will be well worth it, and with all your stops we should have a well above average snow season :)
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we welcome you back with open arms for Christmas! And New Years, and Martin Luther King Day, and Groundhog Day, and Lincons Birthday, and Valentines Day, and Presidents Day, and Mardi Gras, and Saint Patricks Day and April Fools day and Easter. I know its alot of traveling but it will be well worth it, and with all your stops we should have a well above average snow season :)

 

LOL. As I mentioned, I'm heading up to North Dakota for work through early next week. Check out this headline from the local NWS:

 

post-619-0-99019600-1385743744_thumb.png

 

Everyone seems to benefit when I'm in town  :snowing:

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