Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

[jamesnichols1989]

I'm traveling to BUF hopefully tomorrow, but my dad doesn't want to leave tomorrow, he wants to come on Wednesday instead, however looking at the models I advise him to leave tomorrow, but he just doesn't want to leave and travel during the night, he would rather be stuck in a blizzard.

[OSUmetstud]

I don't really see Allegany County changing over to freezing rain.  I'm surprised BUF hasn't upgraded to warnings down there yet.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

Already have 4.7" here for the month of November. Im figuring if I land up with about 10" from this event that'd put me at about 15" for the month of November which would be the most snow Ive seen in the month of November since November of 2005 when we saw 17.9". If we somehow get more than 13.2" for the rest of the month that would make this the snowiest November for me since November 2000 when we saw 45.6".

[kulaginman]

Man, is western New York ever riding the razor's edge with this one! 00z NAM brings the h85 0C isotherm (implying change to rain/fzra) all the way into Cattaraugus County from 06-09z tomorrow night. Not sure the outcome will end up quite that mild...but that has been the trend so it definitely bears watching.

 

I'm still liking the idea of a two-part event in western New York - the initial WAA snow developing tomorrow afternoon and continuing through most of tomorrow night, then a second round of accumulating snowfall later on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a weak mid-level deformation zone attempts to take shape along with some upslope and lake enhancement (but not true lake effect as boundary layer winds will likely have too much of a northerly component). I don't ever see snowfall rates going gangbusters on us, but this will be a nice long duration event that will have a higher-than-normal impact due to the fact that: 1) it is going to be a very heavy wet snow, 2) it is the first widespread significant event of the season, and 3) it just happens to coincide with two of the busiest travel days of the year.

 

It's been talked about already, but things could get really gnarly for those of you in the BGM-SYR corridor perhaps extending west into the Finger Lakes Wednesday afternoon/evening as temperatures crash from h85 down to the surface while a TROWAL feature pivots northward across the region. Yeah, you guys will have to contend with some rain (possibly a prolonged period of rain even) but the final stage of this event could be pretty dramatic in the 18z-00z timeframe Wednesday afternoon/evening, and snowfall rates at that time will likely exceed anything that we get to experience during the entire event in western New York.

 

Looking forward to this, but now it's bedtime. Gotta wake up at 3AM to catch my flight out of Logan...

[Syrmax]

I like the potential for Part 2 in/around the I-81 corridor, we will have to be patient because it will be disappointing to changeover to...whatever tomorrow night. Hard to believe this thing will change over w/ an H850 low track just to our east (though maybe it will be right overhead the I-81 corridor).  However, it looks like that will happen unless the sfc low can get its act together quicker...but even that has its possible downside from a snowfall potential standpoint.  At least it will be interesting from a met standpoint to see how this unfolds.  Usually when warm air intrusion is involved I take the 'over' on temps/changeover/rain but not so sure on this one.  Good start to the snow season and hopefully this signals a trend reversal from the past several winters where areas near the coast have seen the best synoptic snowfall.  We are due for a return to the years where the coast blowtorches and rains w/ significant snows well into the interior - which was the norm for about 30 years until recently.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Man, is western New York ever riding the razor's edge with this one! 00z NAM brings the h85 0C isotherm (implying change to rain/fzra) all the way into Cattaraugus County from 06-09z tomorrow night. Not sure the outcome will end up quite that mild...but that has been the trend so it definitely bears watching.

 

I'm still liking the idea of a two-part event in western New York - the initial WAA snow developing tomorrow afternoon and continuing through most of tomorrow night, then a second round of accumulating snowfall later on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a weak mid-level deformation zone attempts to take shape along with some upslope and lake enhancement (but not true lake effect as boundary layer winds will likely have too much of a northerly component). I don't ever see snowfall rates going gangbusters on us, but this will be a nice long duration event that will have a higher-than-normal impact due to the fact that: 1) it is going to be a very heavy wet snow, 2) it is the first widespread significant event of the season, and 3) it just happens to coincide with two of the busiest travel days of the year.

 

It's been talked about already, but things could get really gnarly for those of you in the BGM-SYR corridor perhaps extending west into the Finger Lakes Wednesday afternoon/evening as temperatures crash from h85 down to the surface while a TROWAL feature pivots northward across the region. Yeah, you guys will have to contend with some rain (possibly a prolonged period of rain even) but the final stage of this event could be pretty dramatic in the 18z-00z timeframe Wednesday afternoon/evening, and snowfall rates at that time will likely exceed anything that we get to experience during the entire event in western New York.

 

Looking forward to this, but now it's bedtime. Gotta wake up at 3AM to catch my flight out of Logan...

safe travels Justin! Looking foward to you arriving in Orchard Park for this event as your an extremely good luck charm haha

[kulaginman]

The 06z NAM has pretty much taken Western NY out of the game with respect to "round two" later tomorrow into tomorrow night - an indication that there is still plenty of uncertainty with this forecast. Sure there could be some upslope snowfall and perhaps a little bit of weak lake enhancement for the Boston Hills and especially the Chautauqua Ridge, but the deeper synoptic scale moisture associated with the mid-level deformation zone misses us to the east...pretty much ending the show in the greater BUF area by 12z tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out.

 

Meanwhile, the signature for heavy snowfall associated with the TROWAL is better than ever for the BGM-SYR corridor in the 18z-00z timeframe tomorrow afternoon/evening - this continues to look more impressive on the meso models as the event draws closer. It'll be interesting if you guys actually do end up competing with western New York for the higher total snowfall amounts, in spite of the bulk of "round one" being rain.

 

Finally, I'm starting to become interested in the possibility of a lake effect event affecting parts of the BUF metro area later Thursday night into Friday morning as the flow backs around to the SW and moisture/instability remain healthy enough to support LES. Obviously predicting LES a few days out is a futile exercise, but this will be something to watch once we get the big synoptic system out of the way... 

[Flying MXZ]

I don't have much hope for the main storm, but it was nice to wake up to an inch of new snow this am with it still falling light-moderate.  That makes 7" so far this November which I will take no questions asked.

[heavy_wx]

Looks like about an inch here as well.

[LakeEffectKing]

I think jackpot area (for the entire 2 part event) will be the highest elev. of the central Finger Lakes region. However, the latest Euro and NAM seemed to shift the critical profiles/thicknesses a tad east which could imply a hint that the E. F.Lakes could have a bit of a shorter duration of just plain rain. Hpoefully, I can get back to SYR from Disney on T-day...lay over at DCA.

[Blizzard92]

1.0" of snow overnight here on campus in Ithaca, NY

[Stash]

1.5"  overnight to help soak up some of the 1.5" + of rain we'll get later on tonight and tomorrow.    

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Driving out to Syracuse tomorrow afternoon. Probably will hit Albany around 4-5pm then driving through the transition zone from there. Hopefully the thru-way is well treated as temperature crash. 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

12z NAM made a pretty sizeable jump east with that secondary batch of wrap around snows. Bad for SYR and points west, especially for those that mix with the initial deformation shield. There of course will still be some lake enhanced snow showers. Good trend for places like BGM though. Unfortunately a shift east with that secondary batch does not equate to less mixing concern and a colder solution...at least not on the NAM. Still looks to torch and mix back to ROC. We'll see what the rest of the 12z suite does. 

[heavy_wx]

12z NAM made a pretty sizeable jump east with that secondary batch of wrap around snows. Bad for SYR and points west, especially for those that mix with the initial deformation shield. There of course will still be some lake enhanced snow showers. Good trend for places like BGM though. Unfortunately a shift east with that secondary batch does not equate to less mixing concern and a colder solution...at least not on the NAM. Still looks to torch and mix back to ROC. We'll see what the rest of the 12z suite does. 

 

Could be interesting to watch. It all depends on where the best combination of moisture and frontogenesis occurs. You can definitely see on the 12z NAM how the isotherms become closer together between 0 and 3z Thursday over the eastern third of NY.

[eduggs]

1.5" in downtown Albany.  The roads were as bad this morning as they were at any time last winter.  Feels like February.  Looks like the City and most commuters were caught off guard.  Pretty well forecast though.  Nice wintry stretch since Saturday.

[ayuud11]

The 06z NAM has pretty much taken Western NY out of the game with respect to "round two" later tomorrow into tomorrow night - an indication that there is still plenty of uncertainty with this forecast. Sure there could be some upslope snowfall and perhaps a little bit of weak lake enhancement for the Boston Hills and especially the Chautauqua Ridge, but the deeper synoptic scale moisture associated with the mid-level deformation zone misses us to the east...pretty much ending the show in the greater BUF area by 12z tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out.

 

Meanwhile, the signature for heavy snowfall associated with the TROWAL is better than ever for the BGM-SYR corridor in the 18z-00z timeframe tomorrow afternoon/evening - this continues to look more impressive on the meso models as the event draws closer. It'll be interesting if you guys actually do end up competing with western New York for the higher total snowfall amounts, in spite of the bulk of "round one" being rain.

 

Finally, I'm starting to become interested in the possibility of a lake effect event affecting parts of the BUF metro area later Thursday night into Friday morning as the flow backs around to the SW and moisture/instability remain healthy enough to support LES. Obviously predicting LES a few days out is a futile exercise, but this will be something to watch once we get the big synoptic system out of the way... 

What do you think total snowfall accumulation would be Justin for the BUF metro area ? 6-8"?

[kulaginman]

What do you think total snowfall accumulation would be Justin for the BUF metro area ? 6-8"?

 

I think getting into the mid-level deformation zone this far west is a long shot tomorrow, so any snow that falls after 12z will likely be orographically-driven (i.e. not favorable for the metro area). I'm thinking 4-6" is most likely at BUF...maybe an outside shot at 7" if we can briefly get into the wraparound snows tomorrow AM. The 7"+ amounts will likely be reserved for the hills of Cattaraugus, southern Erie, and Wyoming Counties...and maybe the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope/lake enhancement that'll keep the snow going there into tomorrow night.

[ayuud11]

I think getting into the mid-level deformation zone this far west is a long shot tomorrow, so any snow that falls after 12z will likely be orographically-driven (i.e. not favorable for the metro area). I'm thinking 4-6" is most likely at BUF...maybe an outside shot at 7" if we can briefly get into the wraparound snows tomorrow AM. The 7"+ amounts will likely be reserved for the hills of Cattaraugus, southern Erie, and Wyoming Counties...and maybe the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope/lake enhancement that'll keep the snow going there into tomorrow night.

4-6" will bring us right into avg snowfall for the season so far...12z nam has too much shear for the Thursday night to Friday LES..

[Syrmax]

12Z GFS looks good for the second part of the storm, trowal, from ROC-SYR-BGM, maybe BUF. Gonna be a lot of close calls w/ this storm.  Just N of SYR, I'm optimistic we limit any plain rain period to 4-6 hrs. Actually, would rather have that and some lessened precip rates than have it hang in as ZR.  Wed afternoon travel looks to be a problem on I-90 and I81 and wouldn't surpised if ALB gets into SN wed eve.  I90 pretty flat terrain wise...always an easier ride to negotiate in SN than SYR to BGM on I-81.

[steffen]

Light snow started about an hour ago, picking up a bit now. Currently at 32F. About an inch on the ground from last night.

[the minister]

Same observation here in Spencer, NY which is 20 minutes south of Ithaca.  I wonder if we're really going to get hammered with the backside snow tomorrow?

[Mr. Windcredible!]

12Z GFS looks good for the second part of the storm, trowal, from ROC-SYR-BGM, maybe BUF. Gonna be a lot of close calls w/ this storm.  Just N of SYR, I'm optimistic we limit any plain rain period to 4-6 hrs. Actually, would rather have that and some lessened precip rates than have it hang in as ZR.  Wed afternoon travel looks to be a problem on I-90 and I81 and wouldn't surpised if ALB gets into SN wed eve.  I90 pretty flat terrain wise...always an easier ride to negotiate in SN than SYR to BGM on I-81.

 

4-6 hours during the heaviest precip could do some damage to whatever falls on the front end. BUFKIT for NAM and GFS puts out around 1" of rain. Not pretty. Good news is so far NAM seems to be the least aggressive on the wrap around snows...so I think 2-4" after any mixing seems like a good bet to preserve white Thanksgiving dreams. We'll see what the Euro says.

 

Yeah, I'm more worried about traffic volume on I-90 tomorrow afternoon evening than I am conditions. I'm guessing we can make it to Utica before we flip to frozen on the drive...and we're on the home stretch at that point. As long as the DOT is on top of things, which they should be given the heavy volume of traffic and the lead time they've had...I'm not too worried about the interstate.

[kulaginman]

34/29 and overcast in Orchard Park with a few stray flakes floating down here and there. Thinking we get into the initial burst of snow around 2PM but the consistent snowfall won't really start around here until 6-7PM this evening. The bulk of the accumulation with "part one" (and likely the bulk of our accumulation...period) should occur between 7PM-4AM.

[battlebrick]

Moderate to heavy snow here in Ithaca. Flakes are small in size. Temp is 31. 

[Syrmax]

4-6 hours during the heaviest precip could do some damage to whatever falls on the front end. BUFKIT for NAM and GFS puts out around 1" of rain. Not pretty. Good news is so far NAM seems to be the least aggressive on the wrap around snows...so I think 2-4" after any mixing seems like a good bet to preserve white Thanksgiving dreams. We'll see what the Euro says.

 

Yeah, I'm more worried about traffic volume on I-90 tomorrow afternoon evening than I am conditions. I'm guessing we can make it to Utica before we flip to frozen on the drive...and we're on the home stretch at that point. As long as the DOT is on top of things, which they should be given the heavy volume of traffic and the lead time they've had...I'm not too worried about the interstate.

fortunately, we have 2-3" on ground from the weekend lake effect IMBY so if we can double that with the leading snowfall before it mixes and rains/sleets, white Turkey day seems pretty assured.  It would be the first one I can remember w/ more than a T of SN on ground in several years.  SN- here now, borderline moderate. Still above 32F so not really having much impact as far as accums.

[jiksports]

Moderate to heavy snow here in Ithaca. Flakes are small in size. Temp is 31. 

I'm in Ithaca too.  I wouldn't call it near heavy; it is light-moderate.  The snow seems to be having trouble sticking on pavement.

[Buffalo Bumble]

34/29 and overcast in Orchard Park with a few stray flakes floating down here and there. Thinking we get into the initial burst of snow around 2PM but the consistent snowfall won't really start around here until 6-7PM this evening. The bulk of the accumulation with "part one" (and likely the bulk of our accumulation...period) should occur between 7PM-4AM.

Right on schedule - light snow started falling a bit before 2PM.  These synoptic systems from the south are always interesting to watch for WNY.  I learned long ago to temper expectations as 6" plus in the immediate BUF area from these storms is very rare.  Happy to take anything over 4" and run with it, especially after slow start to last couple winters.  

[Blizzard92]

Freezing rain/sleet versus snow line is flying northward. Mixed precipitation now being reported on a west to east line along I-80 near Williamsport. Rates better increase here in the southern tier or else accumulations will be minor at least before the changeover today.

[cny rider]

BGM snow map now has my area upped to 4-6 inches.  Previously 2-4.

And the snow map is only through 7 pm Wednesday.  I'm hoping for another couple of inches after that.

This is getting more interesting.

And some serious cold to follow on Thursday.