vortmax Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The pattern looks quite cold for the next 1-2 weeks as pieces of the polar vortex split off from the Eurasian vortex and rotate around in the general area of southeast Canada to Greenland. It actually becomes a somewhat blocky pattern as a significant ridge and at times, a high over low or rex block, persist over the Pacific west coast. There are also indications seen in the 12z Euro and GFS runs that there will be some positive height anomalies extending from the Pacific through the north pole and into Siberia. That will also help to keep the polar vortex from retreating back towards the north pole. So at times, the pattern will likely become quite favorable for lake-effect snow. Exact wind directions are impossible to determine at this stage, but just having the PV in southeast Canada and the very cold air around significantly improve those odds. BUF has a great discussion about all of this...folks here should give it a read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 December'01 redux per 0z op gfs. Snow wise at least. Hopefully not temperature wise. One of the worst Decembers in my memory for winter in Toronto. We had insects flying around in mid December that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 NWS posted winter weather advisories, but local weather guys aren't seeming to buy it. The advisory says 4-6", but i find it odd neither 9wsyr, nor cnycentral are mentioning anything more than flurries? it would be nice to whiten things up around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 NWS posted winter weather advisories, but local weather guys aren't seeming to buy it. The advisory says 4-6", but i find it odd neither 9wsyr, nor cnycentral are mentioning anything more than flurries? it would be nice to whiten things up around here.... HPC agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I think we can actually get some pretty decent totals over the next 2 weeks from these clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 From KBUF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 After we get 3" or so around here they issue a winter weather advisory haha. Nice little storm if that's what you call it lol. Still coming down but has let it a little. The ugly brown/green grass is gone. 26* and a little windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 After we get 3" or so around here they issue a winter weather advisory haha. Nice little storm if that's what you call it lol. Still coming down but has let it a little. The ugly brown/green grass is gone. 26* and a little windy. Here in Skan one of our better performing storms actually...6", snowing good here still. Really beautiful out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 After we get 3" or so around here they issue a winter weather advisory haha. Nice little storm if that's what you call it lol. Still coming down but has let it a little. The ugly brown/green grass is gone. 26* and a little windy. That's the difference between being in the Buffalo forecast area or the Binghamton forecast area. Just across the Onondaga County line from you we've been under a WWA since yesterday afternoon with a forecast of 4 to 6 inches. We're close to verifying the low end of that already. Even channel 9 was on the low side with their 2 - 4 inch forecast for most of the area. They placed the area of heaviest accumulation further east over Madison County. At 8 AM the snow hadn't even started in Rome so the bullseye seems to be further west than what was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Here in Skan one of our better performing storms actually...6", snowing good here still. Really beautiful out NIce pics! That area reminds me of a hike I took a couple winters ago at Bear Swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 That's the difference between being in the Buffalo forecast area or the Binghamton forecast area. Just across the Onondaga County line from you we've been under a WWA since yesterday afternoon with a forecast of 4 to 6 inches. We're close to verifying the low end of that already. Even channel 9 was on the low side with their 2 - 4 inch forecast for most of the area. They placed the area of heaviest accumulation further east over Madison County. At 8 AM the snow hadn't even started in Rome so the bullseye seems to be further west than what was forecasted. Yeah i knew the counties to the south of me were in a WWA... and also noticed the heavier snow is further west than what channel 9 had forecasted. The snow hit a brick wall it seems like it's not moving much at all. It stopped here for a bit but has picked back up again. I'll take what we have got but need a lot more to get the snowmobile out to ride. Guess i'll get the 4 wheeler out and plow the drive out though haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Just measured exactly 4 inches here. Snowing lightly with small flake size. I think most of the accumulation is over as the best dynamics moves off to the east with the developing low pressure on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Bust here in Otsego County. Still snowing lightly but we will be lucky to get to 2 inches. The snow looked like it was coming in early this morning from our south and west but it just hit a wall. Nothing actually fell here until after 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 5-1/4" IMBY...not bad for a relative synoptic surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Thanks for the info. Very frustrating snowmobile season around here this year so hoping some snow is on the way along with the cold. yeah, if I see another W or WSW flow event off of Lake Ontario I'm gonna hurl. Of course that is climo here, but we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 ended with 7" or so here in Skaneateles. Beautiful...heavy, sticking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 ended with 7" or so here in Skaneateles. Beautiful...heavy, sticking snow That's an awesome picture. Thanks for posting. We received 1.4 inches from the initial burst that went through, and another few inches since that. I'd eyeball around 4 inches total since last night but will take accurate measurement later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Picked up 1.4 from the initial burst last night and another 2.9 from the lake enhanced snow. Total of 4.3 inches since last night. Not to bad for an unexpected event. Brings my total over 100 on the year! The lake is definitely not completely frozen as we saw today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Is it my imagination or does KTYX radar tend to be OOS only during periods when it could be of some value. Mild and/or dry wx...fully operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 About 6" here for event....finally an over performer, or at least a top end accum. from the NWS's overnight prog. BTW, OT, but I haven't been posting a lot lately. Going through some sort of health (and or anxiety or both) issue that hopefully will resolve over the next few weeks. Sucks knowing (or thinking) that a headache/stiff neck lasting on and off for 3.5 months can drive one up the wall. All tests are negative (MRI's cervical and head) but still have a couple more appointments to go. I have good days and bad ones, (today pretty good). Hope to be contributing more soon!! For all in good health (both physical and mental) ....never take it for granted!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 About 6" here for event....finally an over performer, or at least a top end accum. from the NWS's overnight prog. BTW, OT, but I haven't been posting a lot lately. Going through some sort of health (and or anxiety or both) issue that hopefully will resolve over the next few weeks. Sucks knowing (or thinking) that a headache/stiff neck lasting on and off for 3.5 months can drive one up the wall. All tests are negative (MRI's cervical and head) but still have a couple more appointments to go. I have good days and bad ones, (today pretty good). Hope to be contributing more soon!! For all in good health (both physical and mental) ....never take it for granted!!! Get better soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Get better soon! Thanks, Ottawa. I'm a scientist at heart, and it is fascinating when the brain goes into overdrive when things get a little out of whack physically. My headaches/neck are never bad (about 2 or 3 outta 10)....but a little lightheadedness and a feeling of "unwell" when sitting for some periods of time (but not all the time) usually at work....but just enough of to be a constant reminder that something's up.....Dr. of course just says "stress/anxiety"...which maybe it is or now is certainly is a contributing factor....It started in late Sept...but completely disappeared for 3 one week periods (in Oct., in Nov (when down in Disney) and once in mid-Dec.)...since then, no real breaks other than usually the afternoons. It really does point to anxiety....which freakin' sucks!!! Enough of that........looks really cold the next 10 days or so after tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Thanks, Ottawa. I'm a scientist at heart, and it is fascinating when the brain goes into overdrive when things get a little out of whack physically. My headaches/neck are never bad (about 2 or 3 outta 10)....but a little lightheadedness and a feeling of "unwell" when sitting for some periods of time (but not all the time) usually at work....but just enough of to be a constant reminder that something's up.....Dr. of course just says "stress/anxiety"...which maybe it is or now is certainly is a contributing factor....It started in late Sept...but completely disappeared for 3 one week periods (in Oct., in Nov (when down in Disney) and once in mid-Dec.)...since then, no real breaks other than usually the afternoons. It really does point to anxiety....which freakin' sucks!!! Enough of that........looks really cold the next 10 days or so after tomorrow! It sure does. Wouldn't be surprised to see Lake Erie freeze over and lake Huron start to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not quite the blizzard of a couple weeks ago, but getting light to at times moderate snow here with winds gusting up to 35 mph. Another awesome winter day here on the Niagara frontier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 About 6" here for event....finally an over performer, or at least a top end accum. from the NWS's overnight prog. BTW, OT, but I haven't been posting a lot lately. Going through some sort of health (and or anxiety or both) issue that hopefully will resolve over the next few weeks. Sucks knowing (or thinking) that a headache/stiff neck lasting on and off for 3.5 months can drive one up the wall. All tests are negative (MRI's cervical and head) but still have a couple more appointments to go. I have good days and bad ones, (today pretty good). Hope to be contributing more soon!! For all in good health (both physical and mental) ....never take it for granted!!! Sorry to hear that George...Hope it turns out ok...I had my stress related heart issues a cpl years ago. I'm still kicking and working out 5x a week now...I also had prolonged stiff neck and weird rear head pain several years ago...finally went to an MD and for me it just took a couple visits to a chiropractor to fix it. Damnedest thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sorry to hear that George...Hope it turns out ok...I had my stress related heart issues a cpl years ago. I'm still kicking and working out 5x a week now...I also had prolonged stiff neck and weird rear head pain several years ago...finally went to an MD and for me it just took a couple visits to a chiropractor to fix it. Damnedest thing. Thank's Brian....check your mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 KART is on a roll as of late. 000NOUS41 KBUF 201407PNSBUFNYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-210207-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY907 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ERIE COUNTY...1 N CLARENCE CENTER 1.6 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHSBUFFALO 1.0 700 AM 1/20 NWS OFFICEESE KENMORE 0.7 750 AM 1/20 COCORAHS1 NW KENMORE 0.6 600 AM 1/20 COCORAHS1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE 0.5 830 AM 1/20 COCORAHS3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 0.5 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...1 WSW WATERTOWN 9.9 730 AM 1/20 COCORAHS3 S THERESA 9.0 800 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...6 N CROGHAN 5.5 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHSHIGHMARKET 4.8 253 AM 1/20 CO-OP OBSERVER1 SSW GLENFIELD 4.0 600 AM 1/20 COCORAHS5 SSW HARRISVILLE 3.8 530 AM 1/20 COCORAHS1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 3.0 500 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...AVON 0.6 737 AM 1/20 CO-OP OBSERVER...MONROE COUNTY...2 ENE BROCKPORT 0.5 829 AM 1/20 COCORAHS5 WNW ROCHESTER 0.5 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHSROCHESTER INTL ARPT 0.5 700 AM 1/20 ASOS...NIAGARA COUNTY...1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 1.0 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...OSWEGO COUNTY...1 NE PULASKI 9.0 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHSSE MINETTO 2.4 715 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...1 E NEWARK 4.5 700 AM 1/20 CO-OP OBSERVER$DK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 About 6" here for event....finally an over performer, or at least a top end accum. from the NWS's overnight prog. BTW, OT, but I haven't been posting a lot lately. Going through some sort of health (and or anxiety or both) issue that hopefully will resolve over the next few weeks. Sucks knowing (or thinking) that a headache/stiff neck lasting on and off for 3.5 months can drive one up the wall. All tests are negative (MRI's cervical and head) but still have a couple more appointments to go. I have good days and bad ones, (today pretty good). Hope to be contributing more soon!! For all in good health (both physical and mental) ....never take it for granted!!! Sorry to hear that, i hope you get better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hate to lose hope but i highly doubt will go above avg in the snowfall department with a frozen lake Erie,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hate to lose hope but i highly doubt will go above avg in the snowfall department with a frozen lake Erie,. The average date over the last 30 years for when Lake Erie reaches the freezing point is Jan. 21. Late January is the time in which Lake Erie Normally freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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