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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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Looks like L. Erie has about 80% ice cover as of yesterday.  We're not expected to go below freezing again until at least Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see how much melting, if any, occurs over the next few days.  Also, I wonder if the placement of ice cover had anything to do with the double-band structure of the lake effect we saw this week.....?

 

 

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Time to give this thread a bump....

 

Hoping we get a good satellite shot of Lake Erie today to check out ice cover.  Models are showing some decent cold air building back in by the end of the week with plenty of shortwaves/clippers moving through.  Maybe we can sneak in a couple more moderate lake effect events in WNY and hopefully build up the snow pack again throughout the region.  

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Hello all,

 

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Really appreciate the info you guys provide.

 

Went to the top of the roller coaster at the amusement park I work at about 20 minutes ago (park is located at the entrance of Presque Isle State Park, about 4 miles west of the city of Erie, PA). From about 140' in the air, as far as I could see north, west and east, water was TOTALLY OPEN.  I took some pictures, maybe my better half  can help me post them when I get home due to my lack of tech ability.

 

Hopefully some LES in the not too distant future...bring on that 280 to 290 flow!

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Hello all,

 

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Really appreciate the info you guys provide.

 

Went to the top of the roller coaster at the amusement park I work at about 20 minutes ago (park is located at the entrance of Presque Isle State Park, about 4 miles west of the city of Erie, PA). From about 140' in the air, as far as I could see north, west and east, water was TOTALLY OPEN.  I took some pictures, maybe my better half  can help me post them when I get home due to my lack of tech ability.

 

Hopefully some LES in the not too distant future...bring on that 280 to 290 flow!

Waldameer!  Love Presque Isle.  We camp at sara's.  Just one question, what are you doing climbing rollercoasters in January?

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Just a typical fall / early spring day here - breezy & warm, upper 40's.  Snow is gone off the ride structure and the first lift hill has basically just a giant staircase to the top - so just snuck up there to take a quick peak at the lake!

 

Glad to hear you are familiar with Wally World at PI state park.

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Hello all,

 

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Really appreciate the info you guys provide.

 

Went to the top of the roller coaster at the amusement park I work at about 20 minutes ago (park is located at the entrance of Presque Isle State Park, about 4 miles west of the city of Erie, PA). From about 140' in the air, as far as I could see north, west and east, water was TOTALLY OPEN.  I took some pictures, maybe my better half  can help me post them when I get home due to my lack of tech ability.

 

Hopefully some LES in the not too distant future...bring on that 280 to 290 flow!

Looks like the ice has retreated from the shorelines and is breaking up in the middle.  Look forward to seeing those pics if you can post them!  

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Just a typical fall / early spring day here - breezy & warm, upper 40's.  Snow is gone off the ride structure and the first lift hill has basically just a giant staircase to the top - so just snuck up there to take a quick peak at the lake!

 

Glad to hear you are familiar with Wally World at PI state park.

Today had that upstate NY mud season feel.

Not that I don't love mud season but I'm really not feeling it in the middle of January.

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Think (I hope) this works.  

 

The first is looking northeast up the shoreline toward you lucky folk recently experiencing the LES Blizzard.  The camera you see there is the Ravine Flyer Cam - can be seen on WICU / WSEE news website if interested. Also, the bay is still iced over pretty well on the right side.

 

The second photo is looking due north,  

 

The third horribly blurred photo is looking westward.

 

Like I said earlier, not a chunk of ice to be seen.

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Think (I hope) this works.  

 

The first is looking northeast up the shoreline toward you lucky folk recently experiencing the LES Blizzard.  The camera you see there is the Ravine Flyer Cam - can be seen on WICU / WSEE news website if interested. Also, the bay is still iced over pretty well on the right side.

 

The second photo is looking due north,  

 

The third horribly blurred photo is looking westward.

 

Like I said earlier, not a chunk of ice to be seen.

 

Great photos - nice to have a birds-eye view of the lake.  

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I would agree with you. ^_^

 

Lake Erie has been good to me this year, she can go dormant until the Spring.

Blasphemy!  Agree with you guys, looking like most of the lake will be locked up in another week or so.  

 

Starting to look like a prolonged cold but relatively dry pattern coming up.  I figured we were in for a decent dry spell with all the big precip events we've had since December.  The well has to run dry sooner or later...

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Other than clipper after clipper what else do we have to talk about in the next week or so? Since I am near Lake Ontario what are the chances of some LES heading into the week next week? Looking at green grass in mid January SUCKS.

 

The pattern looks quite cold for the next 1-2 weeks as pieces of the polar vortex split off from the Eurasian vortex and rotate around in the general area of southeast Canada to Greenland. It actually becomes a somewhat blocky pattern as a significant ridge and at times, a high over low or rex block, persist over the Pacific west coast.

 

There are also indications seen in the 12z Euro and GFS runs that there will be some positive height anomalies extending from the Pacific through the north pole and into Siberia. That will also help to keep the polar vortex from retreating back towards the north pole.

 

So at times, the pattern will likely become quite favorable for lake-effect snow. Exact wind directions are impossible to determine at this stage, but just having the PV in southeast Canada and the very cold air around significantly improve those odds.

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The pattern looks quite cold for the next 1-2 weeks as pieces of the polar vortex split off from the Eurasian vortex and rotate around in the general area of southeast Canada to Greenland. It actually becomes a somewhat blocky pattern as a significant ridge and at times, a high over low or rex block, persist over the Pacific west coast.

 

There are also indications seen in the 12z Euro and GFS runs that there will be some positive height anomalies extending from the Pacific through the north pole and into Siberia. That will also help to keep the polar vortex from retreating back towards the north pole.

 

So at times, the pattern will likely become quite favorable for lake-effect snow. Exact wind directions are impossible to determine at this stage, but just having the PV in southeast Canada and the very cold air around significantly improve those odds.

 

Thanks for the info. Very frustrating snowmobile season around here this year so hoping some snow is on the way along with the cold.

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