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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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First time since 1985?

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* HAZARDS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING  SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 15 INCHES TONIGHT...9 TO 17 INCHES  TUESDAY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM  TOTALS OF MORE THAN 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 45 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW.
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I wonder if the somewhat unexpected snow this afternoon in the more highly populated northtowns and metro area tipped the scales.  Even if those areas stay out of the heaviest snow the rest of the time, the few inches of powder that fell are still capable of producing whiteouts with these winds.  

 

Metro and areas just north are going to get hit tomorrow. Most models have been showing it the last few runs.

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...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...

CURRENT OBS SUPPORT LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. KBUF HAS

ALMOST VERIFIED THE NWS DEFINITION FOR THE EVENING AND THE

STRONGEST BAND HAS YET TO GET STARTED. WINDS TOMORROW LOOK

STRONGER WITH A CORE OF 50+KTS OVERHEAD. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH EXPECT THE LAKE BAND TO FULLY ENERGIZE...SOMETIME

AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE GOING FULL FORCE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS

THE BAND CONSOLIDATES AREAS OUTSIDE THE 20-30 MI WIDE BAND WILL

SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL BUT CONTINUED WHITEOUTS DUE TO

ONGOING WINDS/GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION THE

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY PART OF BLIZZARD

CRITERIA...WARRANT THE DANGEROUS TO LIFE THREATENING NATURE OF

THIS EVENT. FOR THE AREAS OF CONCERN...HAVE SIMPLY SWITCHED THE

LAKE EFFECT WARNING TO BLIZZARD WARNING THOUGH 6AM WED. WIND

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE A BIT TO SUB-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL CONSIDER BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS

COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER OFF

OF LAKE ONTARIO.

IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS...THE PRIMARY TARGET AREA OFF LAKE ERIE

REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY ALONG WITH EXTREME

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES EXTENDING

INLAND INTO GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE

UPWARDS OF 2 TO 3 FEET FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS BANDS BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH INLAND

PENETRATION TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES AS FAR AS

THE SOUTHWESTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER AND FAR NORTHERN LIVINGSTON

COUNTY. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF LONGER FETCH DOWN

THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW MEANS THAT WE COULD SEE STORM TOTALS TO

AROUND 6 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED

THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS ON THE TUG. THE VERY

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR NEAR

ZERO VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT

BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THE OTHER ISSUE

WE WILL BEING DEALING WITH REGION-WIDE IS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE POLAR AIRMASS DESCENDING UPON THE REGION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES

INTO THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS THAT SHOULD ONLY

LIMP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY. COUPLED WITH

PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 30

TO 40 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUNGE AS LOW

AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH MANY AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER

POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

 
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Complete whiteout as the band is moving southward,Here is a link to a HD webcam not too far from my place.Enjoy!

 

http://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/elmwood-avenue-panos-restaurant

 

How far are you from Buff State? I have some family that lives really close to Buff state. Also Panos has some incredible soulvakis! ^_^

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Had a burst about an hour ago that lasted a few minutes and left a dusting.

 

 

 

18z NAM are more for the southtowns still but edges the Metro. It's close. But, the negative is it's weakening at that point and winds are at their highest then so it may get sheared up. RAP stinks, too. Stays south and weak off Erie. If I get 6" in S Buffalo at this point, I'd be pleased.

Don just ran the RPM model and it does bring it to the city and northtowns for a while tomorrow,btw he has us on the 8-16" range and said there is a chance the city could get more than that.

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Don just ran the RPM model and it does bring it to the city and northtowns for a while tomorrow,btw he has us on the 8-16" range and said there is a chance the city could get more than that.

 

From my memory, when the winds are aligned such as in this event, there was often more movement than when the bands set up further south over Chautauqua county and Erie, PA. 

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My wife is driving on the 90 home from work in this, I hope she is okay. =(

I was one of the last cars getting out of the skyway earlier,accidents all over the place..even a dusting will seem like a heavy snow with this winds!

 

Getting thundersnow in Parkside

Can you say whiteout? Wow..

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It looks like there are 2 bands currently. 1 main band across metro buffalo and points just north which is the stronger one. And also a secondary band across the southtowns also producing pretty heavy snow. It looks like they are gonig to merge into one single epic band. Maybe I was a little to fast in dismissing this one earlier. ^_^

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Thunder snow within the band currently with 50+ mph winds and temperatures in the single digits. This is absolutely insane. I've never seen anything like this.

I honestly haven't experienced conditions like this since the 93 blizzard, when I lived in Weedsport.  I've been in plenty of insane lake effect snow bands since, but nothing with sustained winds of 35 mph and gusts to 50 mph.  Has to be snowing 3"/hour here right now.  

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