BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Only in this region can you have a freezing rain,high winds,LES and windchill warnings at the same time 0z HIRES NAM is beautiful for this area. Hammers a line from Metro to Eden for 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 NAM Bufkit soundings have ramped up the wind potential for tomorrow night and especially Tuesday throughout western NY. Winds are progged to reach 56kts at 850mb from 18-21z Tuesday at KBUF, and momentum transfer should be pretty ideal given the steep lapse rates. Even with minimal directional shear, that's really pushing the limit for what can maintain organized lake plumes IMO...and the wind is my #1 greatest concern for what might prevent storm totals from reaching 30"+ totals east of Lake Erie. Others here may disagree, but the sample size of lake effect events that have occurred with such a wind profile has to be pretty small. On the flip side, this thing has blizzard written all over it. I know they won't pull the trigger, but the NWS would be totally justified issuing a blizzard warning for western NY IMO. Some say they only reserve blizzard warnings for synoptic events, but it should be impact-driven regardless of synoptic or mesoscale - the public doesn't care about that. This could truly be a crippling event, even for storm-savvy western New York. Thanks for your analysis. Blizzard warnings issued in Indiana. The Buffalo NWS is extremely stringent with issuing blizzard warnings. However the duration of this event just might put this over and top and allow for them to issue them. All day Tuesday looks absolutely brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 0z HIRES NAM is beautiful for this area. Hammers a line from Metro to Eden for 24-36 hours. Just keeps getting better eh? even the RPM mike showed has moved the band right into the heart of the city and s.buffalo on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 NAM Bufkit soundings have ramped up the wind potential for tomorrow night and especially Tuesday throughout western NY. Winds are progged to reach 56kts at 850mb from 18-21z Tuesday at KBUF, and momentum transfer should be pretty ideal given the steep lapse rates. Even with minimal directional shear, that's really pushing the limit for what can maintain organized lake plumes IMO...and the wind is my #1 greatest concern for what might prevent storm totals from reaching 30"+ totals east of Lake Erie. Others here may disagree, but the sample size of lake effect events that have occurred with such a wind profile has to be pretty small. On the flip side, this thing has blizzard written all over it. I know they won't pull the trigger, but the NWS would be totally justified issuing a blizzard warning for western NY IMO. Some say they only reserve blizzard warnings for synoptic events, but it should be impact-driven regardless of synoptic or mesoscale - the public doesn't care about that. This could truly be a crippling event, even for storm-savvy western New York. A rare LES snow advisory is up for Monroe county for 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Just keeps getting better eh? even the RPM mike showed has moved the band right into the heart of the city and s.buffalo on Tuesday. Also adding to that, when the flow goes up the entire fetch of the lake the band is at its strongest. So even though the residence time in Metro Buffalo might not be as long as those areas just to the south...The snowfall rates could be 3-4 inches per hour in comparison to 1-2 inches per hour like we saw a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Also adding to that, when the flow goes up the entire fetch of the lake the band is at its strongest. So even though the residence time in Metro Buffalo might not be as long as those areas just to the south...The snowfall rates could be 3-4 inches per hour in comparison to 1-2 inches per hour like we saw a few weeks ago. Wow, I have seen some pretty impressive snowfall rates with synoptic scale events, such as the Blizzard of 2005, and other events were lift in the snow growth region was optimal. However LES events I have never seen better dendrites then the ones from a Lake Effect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Not rare for rochester to have lake snow advisory. Even of off lake erie it happens once a year. Now its rare there is this much lead time for it. Usually one is not issued till a couple inches has already fallen. Now ofcoure roc gets warnings from lake ontario all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 NAM Bufkit soundings have ramped up the wind potential for tomorrow night and especially Tuesday throughout western NY. Winds are progged to reach 56kts at 850mb from 18-21z Tuesday at KBUF, and momentum transfer should be pretty ideal given the steep lapse rates. Even with minimal directional shear, that's really pushing the limit for what can maintain organized lake plumes IMO...and the wind is my #1 greatest concern for what might prevent storm totals from reaching 30"+ totals east of Lake Erie. Others here may disagree, but the sample size of lake effect events that have occurred with such a wind profile has to be pretty small. On the flip side, this thing has blizzard written all over it. I know they won't pull the trigger, but the NWS would be totally justified issuing a blizzard warning for western NY IMO. Some say they only reserve blizzard warnings for synoptic events, but it should be impact-driven regardless of synoptic or mesoscale - the public doesn't care about that. This could truly be a crippling event, even for storm-savvy western New York. Yeah, the 00z GFS has a 700 mb shortwave and associated wind speed max rotating around the PV and entering WNY by 18z Tuesday. The 00z NAM has the same feature which increases the downward flux of higher momentum air to the lower levels. The NAM actually gets winds between 900 and 850 mb above 50 kts by 14z Tuesday which could be disruptive enough to prevent an organized band from maintaining itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Are we supposed to have a rise in temps before the front comes through in the AM? Niagara Falls is at 32 with freezing rain and I'm at 33 with a north wind. Last thing we want is any build up of ice on trees/power lines before 50 mph gusts blast through tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Are we supposed to have a rise in temps before the front comes through in the AM? Niagara Falls is at 32 with freezing rain and I'm at 33 with a north wind. Last thing we want is any build up of ice on trees/power lines before 50 mph gusts blast through tomorrow... Yeah that's a little surprising, but the low level cold will definitely mix out for at least a brief period when the front comes through. Right now it looks like FROPA will be occurring around 4AM with the strongest winds happening in the 4AM-7AM period as the post-frontal isallobaric couplet moves through. My Dad texted me from 1100' in Orchard Park shortly after 10PM and it was 43F there at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Enjoy your snow! It's been actually rather lame in the immediate CNY area this winter IMO. We get nickeled and dimed and then lose all our snow 2 days later to torches....and for the most part the lake effect is all to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Enjoy your snow! It's been actually rather lame in the immediate CNY area this winter IMO. We get nickeled and dimed and then lose all our snow 2 days later to torches....and for the most part the lake effect is all to our north. Yupp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Yes once again the torch outperforms. 47 here, just off our overnight high of 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 LES is getting an early head start.Cameras off the ripley exit are showing lane covered snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 =0 teach me your ways young padawan. Just checked and they still have the free trial going on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 LES is getting an early head start.Cameras off the ripley exit are showing lane covered snow. Snow already started here. Roads already covered. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Snow already started here. Roads already covered. Here we go! Kinda looks disorganized on radar atm but i see the band is starting to organize on a wsw orientation per CLE radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Lived in Buffalo until I was 21 (moved away in 98) and oh, how do I miss the LES!! I was just in town last Monday so it pains me to miss such an extreme event by 1 week. I unfortunately missed that crazy Christmas week when they had nearly 8 feet of snow in 2001. My most memorable event happened when I was in college when a band dropped 3+ feet of snow overnight. It had to be in the mid to late 90's but I don't remember the exact year. In any event, it will be fun to watch things unfold over the next 48 hours. I don't recall the NWS using the term "blizzard" to in conjunction with a LES event too often as they did in their recent AFD. I always thought that intense winds off Erie would keep the activity disorganized but that appears not to be the case with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Light to at times moderate snow pretty much all morning at my office in Lancaster. Looks like a double-band coming off the lake at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I hope this hits for the Metro because this is likely the last significant LES shot for the season, and Thursday's storm dying now with the torch burning this all next week. Don't like that models keep the band south of here tonight now in recent runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I hope this hits for the Metro because this is likely the last significant LES shot for the season, and Thursday's storm dying now with the torch burning this all next week. Don't like that models keep the band south of here tonight now in recent runs... They show a direct hit for the metro from 15z-21 Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 We're already rollin with heavy radar reflectivity at Lake Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like the Ontario band is getting some help from the upper lakes already? The Tug is gonna get slammed. I have some friends that plan on riding snowmobile on the tug tomorrow thinking the might wanna cancel them plans haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like the Ontario band is getting some help from the upper lakes already? The Tug is gonna get slammed. I have some friends that plan on riding snowmobile on the tug tomorrow thinking the might wanna cancel them plans haha. Why would you wanna cancel riding through 4 feet of new snow? Isn't that like heaven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Not fun riding when you can't see 5 feet in front of you. Plus the wind and cold makes it even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Yeah who wants negative wind chills. Ride snowmobile when it is 20 something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Which mesoscale/short term models do you guys recommend to follow the LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Dang that erie band heading straight toward buffalo,let the show begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Complete whiteout here. Visibility 20 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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