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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

lakeeffectkid383

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

I think they will probably pop lake effect snow advisories for the South Shore of Lake Ontario (at least wayne to Oswego...and likely the whole shore) because this will be the first real snow fall of the year and it certainly looks to be quite wintery/windy and unseasonably cold Sat night into Sunday.  The still quite warm lakes are also a wild card even though synoptic moisture is lacking. 

 

We're one ingredient away from a real nice dump, such a shame.

Where do you think the Georgian Bay band will setup?

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scottmartin49

scottmartin49

Posted
Posted

I've been trying to recall any year that violated the old adage, "Ice in November that will float a duck, no more to winter than snow, sleet, and muck"- you know, not a cold one- and have been following the brouhaha over on the 'Big Boys' pages trying to predict the entire winter AO from October alone :maphot: ; or is it snow in Siberia (?)- eh, whatever...

....and just sat down for a bit to look for analogues for the precipitous drop going on in the AO. IF (big if  :unsure:) the AO slides neutral to negative for its December average, the only strong candidate is 1978-9....

 

(I'll let that sink in for a bit :snowing: )  ......ENSO and PDA are in line as well. Other options were Dec./Jan. 2011-12, and the Jan./Feb. 1957, 1993, and 2007 AO drops, but all had other tele's in the way- so there you go! Had to try something 'extra' this year; the woolybears were pretty non-committal, and more inconsistent than usual.

 

Happy Thanksgiving!  

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

That's a major hit midweek for most of Upstate NY N/W of the Hudson Valley on the 0Z ECMWF. A foot plus in  wide swath. The low tracks over NYC/LI.

 

Exception..western NY too far west.

 

12z Canadian looks decent IMO,3-6" for wny.You get hammered though..

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

That's a major hit midweek for most of Upstate NY N/W of the Hudson Valley on the 0Z ECMWF. A foot plus in  wide swath. The low tracks over NYC/LI.

 

Exception..western NY too far west.

 

Have you checked boundary layer temps? Looks like a rainstorm to me. Very marginal conditions unless you have some decent elevation. Lots of model discrepancy with this one, even the ensembles are all out of whack. Going to be a few days before we know the track of this storm. Some decent eye candy though. ^_^

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Hey everyone! It's the time of year when I make my annual trek to Western New York, and some of you may recall that it likes to snow when I come home. Direct computer model output of snowfall amounts should always be taken with a grain of salt (doesn't take things like ground temps/snow growth/CSI into consideration)...but having said that, the projected amounts from the 12z EC are quite impressive regarding the midweek storm:

 

post-619-0-69967700-1385254640_thumb.png

 

From what I understand, the op EC has generally good support among the ensembles...though this is only what I have been told as I do not have access to the ensembles myself. Regardless, this could turn into a rather nice event for many reading this thread.

 

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, though...I'd watch for a sneaky band of LES to impact the immediate BUF metro area early Monday morning as boundary layer winds quickly back around to the SW while the inversion remains high enough and the cold air marginally deep enough to allow a short-lived band to take advantage of the increased fetch across Lake Erie. Probably wouldn't last for more than an hour or two, but snowfall rates could briefly hamper the Monday AM commute especially considering most have not really had to exercise their winter driving skills yet.

 

I'll be at the folks' place in Orchard Park from Tuesday through Friday...

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Hey everyone! It's the time of year when I make my annual trek to Western New York, and some of you may recall that it likes to snow when I come home. Direct computer model output of snowfall amounts should always be taken with a grain of salt (doesn't take things like ground temps/snow growth/CSI into consideration)...but having said that, the projected amounts from the 12z EC are quite impressive regarding the midweek storm:

 

attachicon.gifeuro_snowfall.PNG

 

From what I understand, the op EC has generally good support among the ensembles...though this is only what I have been told as I do not have access to the ensembles myself. Regardless, this could turn into a rather nice event for many reading this thread.

 

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, though...I'd watch for a sneaky band of LES to impact the immediate BUF metro area early Monday morning as boundary layer winds quickly back around to the SW while the inversion remains high enough and the cold air marginally deep enough to allow a short-lived band to take advantage of the increased fetch across Lake Erie. Probably wouldn't last for more than an hour or two, but snowfall rates could briefly hamper the Monday AM commute especially considering most have not really had to exercise their winter driving skills yet.

 

I'll be at the folks' place in Orchard Park from Tuesday through Friday.

That midweek storm is starting to look good for our area but any further westward track and we will be dealing with some mixed precip..NWS BUF also mentions possibility of some LES Monday night into Tuesday.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

Pretty ugly Euro/CMC runs for the Albany area. The forecast discussion from ALY completely throws out the GFS, as they probably should.

 

OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAINS OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN PVS
RUNS. ITS AN OUTLIER IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE AND WILL NOT BE USED.

 

Areas in WNY/NNY may still do pretty well.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Well Euro/Canadian/NAM seem to be in agreement that central and western NY get into action on the Tue/Wed storm. GFS is playing catch up as usual. Traveling to Syracuse to the in-laws for Thanksgiving on Wednesday. Will likely miss most of the event myself, but hoping it works out so I can take the kids out sledding Thursday and/or Friday.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Feeling more confident today that WNY does get into the action with the midweek storm. 12z NAM sort of hinting at a two-part event with an initial burst of wet snow associated with WAA Tuesday evening...then a second and potentially more significant period of snow later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a mid-level deformation zone takes shape once the low finally closes off at 700mb (confidence is lower that this actually happens).

 

If a mid-level low closes off and we manage to get a deformation zone over WNY during the latter stages of the storm, it could get particularly nasty with falling temps/icy roads, increasing N/NW winds with blowing and drifting concerns, and terrain enhancement south/east of BUF-ROC which could really hammer places like the Chautauqua Ridge. But a lot can still change between now and Wednesday so right now this is only a possibility and I'm still concerned that the low either: 1) does not close off at mid-levels, and/or 2) tracks farther to the east.

 

I do agree that the GFS should be tossed at this point...

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

the 00z ecm looks quite ominous for many in NY and Ontario

 

 

wild evening here in N VT tonight with the frontal snow and flash freeze, what a mess on I-89 and local roads, in and around BTV.

I'm hoping Toronto can get 2-4" out of this at least. What a great start to the season! Best start since 2008, possibly 2007.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

My point and click, from BGM, CWA calling for snow and ZR Tuesday night.

1-2 inches of precipitation.

That's going to make for one hell of a travel day Wednesday if it plays out that way.

 

Not sure I'm buying into the fzra threat, but I do believe there is nasty flash freeze potential with this system...somewhere in central and/or eastern New York. The last couple runs of the NAM have brought the h85 0C isotherm up to roughly an ELM-RME-SLK line by Wednesday morning...only to have that line collapse southeastward as the second "wave" ripples up and deepens along the front Wednesday afternoon/evening. I think you may have to endure a period of rain with temperatures possibly nudging into the mid 30s for a time on Wednesday, only to flip back to snow as temperatures crash into the 20s later in the day.

 

Again, not sure if this is going to happen in the ELM-BGM corridor or perhaps closer to ALB instead (this will fluctuate from run to run over the next couple of days) but the signal is definitely there, and it could be nasty wherever it happens to occur. The fact that this will be happening on the busiest travel day of the year is certainly not helping matters.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

there could be a quick burst of snow in BUF tomorrow morning with the les.  Too dry for something impressive.  (That's probably why this NW lake-effect event was so-so.)  The Tuesday LES looks more impressive for BUF..potential for advisory accumulations. 

 

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed...

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed...

 

there could be a quick burst of snow in BUF tomorrow morning with the les.  Too dry for something impressive.  (That's probably why this NW lake-effect event was so-so.)  The Tuesday LES looks more impressive for BUF..potential for advisory accumulations. 

Flow looks a bit southerly,maybe a northtown special?

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

 

 

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

WHILE THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE STORM THAT

WILL BE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SOME

LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IMPACTING AREAS NORTHEAST

OF THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS

ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL

PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF

THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ATTENDANT

SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH BETWEEN THE EASTERN

SEABOARD AND THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...REACHING THE VICINITY

OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PROJECTED PATH OF THE LOW WILL

KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE COLD

SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH WILL FAVOR SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PCPN

TYPE. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA

FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT THIS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL COULD

HAVE ON TRAVEL RIGHT BEFORE THANKSGIVING...A WINTER STORM WATCH

REMAINS IN EFFECT.

NWS BUF

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Well Rochester west to Buffalo looks like the place to be for this. Thought GFS may have been bringing a bit too much warmth into this yesterday…but NAM and Euro now supporting the idea of rain all the way into Syracuse. Some bookend snows still likely for places like Syracuse and Binghamton…but Rochester may end up the big winner here. 

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Stash

Stash

Posted
Posted

Not a typical track, but when they do come up through Eastern NY State, Rochester tends to be the place to be.  Decent spot for any banding in this setup, as well as influence from Lake Ontario (I'm thinking specifically of a big March storm for them some years ago where this happened). 

 

Out here in Eastern Upstate NY, this will not be decimating any mid-winter snowpack, so I'll sit back and enjoy the rain, sandwiched by maybe a brief slop on the front end, then flurries/flash freeze as it moves by.  Sometimes I get lucky and get dryslotted too...

 

 

Well Rochester west to Buffalo looks like the place to be for this. Thought GFS may have been bringing a bit too much warmth into this yesterday…but NAM and Euro now supporting the idea of rain all the way into Syracuse. Some bookend snows still likely for places like Syracuse and Binghamton…but Rochester may end up the big winner here. 

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed...

A few years back I flew out of BUF in heavy snow with about 9" on the ground in December...right on time lol.  

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed...

 

Seriously every-time you come up here snow is in the forecast. Quite hilarious! ^_^

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