BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That's the old run,the new one has the band just right by the city even gets it to north towns for a while,like you said alot of times they underestimate how much backing occurs so will see... This is the newest run as far as I see. You have a link to the new run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This is the newest run as far as I see. You have a link to the new run? Here are the ones that i use.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Here are the ones that i use.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ I see the same thing as the one I posted. Also that second link is only good for synoptic events, its virtually useless for mesoscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This is pretty epic * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES MONDAY...8 TO 16 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...9 TO 17 INCHES TUESDAY...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I see the same thing as the one I posted. Also that second link is only good for synoptic events, its virtually useless for mesoscale. Look closer the 3z was a tad south compared to the 9z run,it has downtown get into the heavy accumulation but nonetheless this is LES so it all comes down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Look closer the 3z was a tad south compared to the 9z run,it has downtown get into the heavy accumulation but nonetheless this is LES so it all comes down to nowcasting. Agreed nearly all LES events do. High Wind Warning, Wind Chill Warning, and Lake Effect Snow Warning. This has probably happened 3-5 times in Buffalos history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The high res WRF NMM and ARW show virtually nothing coming off lake Erie. Guess they are counting on the lake being mainly frozen over as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agreed nearly all LES events do. High Wind Warning, Wind Chill Warning, and Lake Effect Snow Warning. This has probably happened 3-5 times in Buffalos history. They are going to run of colors soon if they don't stop posting warnings!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 They are going to run of colors soon if they don't stop posting warnings!! Haha seriously! Very fun times for weather enthusiasts! That synoptic storm is pretty amazing as well. If we weren't getting this LES event, I'd be pretty mad we missed that thing by 100 miles. Places in Indiana are getting 2 inches per hour and some places there along with Michigan will get around 18 inches snow totals....Pretty rare event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 lol that is weird maybe I should clear my cache. Euro isn't working for me now either. They have been having problems with that model since the new year. Not exactly sure what is going on as the other models seem to be working fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Haha seriously! Very fun times for weather enthusiasts! That synoptic storm is pretty amazing as well. If we weren't getting this LES event, I'd be pretty mad we missed that thing by 100 miles. Places in Indiana are getting 2 inches per hour and some places there along with Michigan will get around 18 inches snow totals....Pretty rare event for them. Wow nice! btw i use wxbell to get the euro model,i signed up for that free trial a year ago when they first came out and ever since then i have been getting the models for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wow nice! btw i use wxbell to get the euro model,i signed up for that free trial a year ago when they first came out and ever since then i have been getting the models for free. =0 teach me your ways young padawan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Updated NWS Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Tough call on this one whether to chase or not. If the band stays just to my south, it will certainly be tempting to take a short drive to experience and document the conditions with some photos/video. On the other hand, I'm always annoyed by people who intentionally put themselves in bad situations and put other people at risk to bail them out. Actually, if conditions are as bad as predicted on Tuesday, I wouldn't be surprised to see travel bans for at least central to southern portions of Erie County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Tough call on this one whether to chase or not. If the band stays just to my south, it will certainly be tempting to take a short drive to experience and document the conditions with some photos/video. On the other hand, I'm always annoyed by people who intentionally put themselves in bad situations and put other people at risk to bail them out. Actually, if conditions are as bad as predicted on Tuesday, I wouldn't be surprised to see travel bans for at least central to southern portions of Erie County. You might not have to. NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA1256 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAYTO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PMEST TUESDAY...* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE WIND CHILL WARNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES MONDAY...6 TO 12 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...9 TO 17 INCHES TUESDAY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Tough call on this one whether to chase or not. If the band stays just to my south, it will certainly be tempting to take a short drive to experience and document the conditions with some photos/video. On the other hand, I'm always annoyed by people who intentionally put themselves in bad situations and put other people at risk to bail them out. Actually, if conditions are as bad as predicted on Tuesday, I wouldn't be surprised to see travel bans for at least central to southern portions of Erie County. But if you have 4 wheel drive, come pick up me, ayudd, devin, and OSU and lets go chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 But if you have 4 wheel drive, come pick up me, ayudd, devin, and OSU and lets go chasing! 5 winter weather freaks driving around WNY in a blizzard. Sounds fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 OMG LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THISEVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL WATCH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* TIMING AND HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE THISAFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWINGSNOW WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROMLATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LATETHIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATING 3 TO 5 INCHESMONDAY...MORE THAN 2 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...MORE THAN 2 FEETTUESDAY...5 TO 10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESSWEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5 FEET INPERSISTENT BANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 5 winter weather freaks driving around WNY in a blizzard. Sounds fun.... Would be the best chase ever! I usually go by myself or with my wife. I still haven't gone with Devin yet, even though we've trained together at worlds gym a few times. By the way where is Devin...He has been MIA the day before what might be a historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 OMG Awesome GIF btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What was that again about global warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 These next few days should make for some interesting drives and observations in the big rig... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Awesome GIF btw. Thanks don just posted this on the blog:I think that might have to do with the bumped accumalations for Nrn.Erie.. NAM winds for the lower 35mb of the atmosphere (just under 300 m or around 975′ altitude) are at 250 almost all the way through, with brief backing to 240 Tuesday. That 35 mb section of the atmosphere is less than 1/3 the depth of the entire boundary layer, so it’s inconclusive vs the wind direction at about the top of the boundary lyr, or about 1km up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 OMG One uppin' the 5' forecast for the Tug....latest BUF discussion goes to a "never before heard of" (at least in my lifetime) forecast (in a discussion or otherwise) of possibly 6'!!!!!!!!!!!!! NAM12 BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE LAKES SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA FORECAST WITHIN THE BANDS LASTING 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WERE MORE SUBJECTIVE BASED ON EXPERIENCE THAN UPON ANY PARTICULAR MODEL OR BLEND OF MODELS. OVERALL WE EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES OFF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES OFF THE LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE DURATION OF THESE EXTREME SNOW RATES WILL YIELD THE EXPECTED SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A MAX OF AROUND 36 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO FROM THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND THROUGH THE EVENT AND POSSIBLY OVER 5 OR 6 FEET ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THE ADDITIONAL UPLIFT FROM THE TUG HILL AND MORE STEADY ORIENTATION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS REASONING FOR SUCH HIGH SNOW TOTALS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE ERIE BAND LOOKS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE SO SNOW TOTALS WHERE CUT SOME DUE TO THIS FACTOR. THERE WILL BE VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ON BOTH BAND FROM THE CENTER TO THE OUTER EDGES WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE ACROSS METRO BUFFALO. WHILE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 One uppin' the 5' forecast for the Tug....latest BUF discussion goes to a "never before heard of" (at least in my lifetime) forecast (in a discussion or otherwise) of possibly 6'!!!!!!!!!!!!! NAM12 BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE LAKES SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA FORECAST WITHIN THE BANDS LASTING 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WERE MORE SUBJECTIVE BASED ON EXPERIENCE THAN UPON ANY PARTICULAR MODEL OR BLEND OF MODELS. OVERALL WE EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES OFF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES OFF THE LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE DURATION OF THESE EXTREME SNOW RATES WILL YIELD THE EXPECTED SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A MAX OF AROUND 36 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO FROM THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND THROUGH THE EVENT AND POSSIBLY OVER 5 OR 6 FEET ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THE ADDITIONAL UPLIFT FROM THE TUG HILL AND MORE STEADY ORIENTATION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS REASONING FOR SUCH HIGH SNOW TOTALS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE ERIE BAND LOOKS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE SO SNOW TOTALS WHERE CUT SOME DUE TO THIS FACTOR. THERE WILL BE VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ON BOTH BAND FROM THE CENTER TO THE OUTER EDGES WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE ACROSS METRO BUFFALO. WHILE Beat me to it! Certainly a historic LES will be underway in less than 24 hours,Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Beat me to it! Certainly a historic LES will be underway in less than 24 hours,Can't wait Hoping you guys can get into the cross hairs! Love seeing BUF metro get crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 According to the NWS forecast discussion, Lake Erie is 56% ice-covered as of 18z today. I'm sure this is also factoring into why the WRF isn't as robust with the QPF off Lake Erie. I wish there was some way we could tweak the model to ignore ice coverage, just to see what kind of output it would yield! We've seen plenty of LES events in the past dump major snowfall totals with considerable ice coverage; sometimes a completely ice-covered lake can still produce significant LES due to frictional convergence between the ice/land surface. I must say I'm really jealous of you guys. This looks like a fun event, but please...be smart/safe if you intend to chase this thing. The extreme cold means you can suddenly find yourself in way over your head. Mis-judging the edge of the road and finding yourself stuck in a ditch in -40F wind chills can become life-threatening very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 According to the NWS forecast discussion, Lake Erie is 56% ice-covered as of 18z today. I'm sure this is also factoring into why the WRF isn't as robust with the QPF off Lake Erie. I wish there was some way we could tweak the model to ignore ice coverage, just to see what kind of output it would yield! We've seen plenty of LES events in the past dump major snowfall totals with considerable ice coverage; sometimes a completely ice-covered lake can still produce significant LES due to frictional convergence between the ice/land surface. I must say I'm really jealous of you guys. This looks like a fun event, but please...be smart/safe if you intend to chase this thing. The extreme cold means you can suddenly find yourself in way over your head. Mis-judging the edge of the road and finding yourself stuck in a ditch in -40F wind chills can become life-threatening very quickly. I know it's a tough call but how much do you think the west side area will get? updated zone forecast only mentions areas south and along route 5 receiving the most accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Would be the best chase ever! I usually go by myself or with my wife. I still haven't gone with Devin yet, even though we've trained together at worlds gym a few times. By the way where is Devin...He has been MIA the day before what might be a historic storm. Been super busy the past few days. I am super pumped for this storm though as it very well could be a storm I tell my kids about someday. Btw if I can pick up 24.1" from this storm that will put me over 100" for the season. Very exciting times ahead and may we all cash in on this event! Everyone stay safe out there with the brutal wind chills of near -40F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 According to the NWS forecast discussion, Lake Erie is 56% ice-covered as of 18z today. I'm sure this is also factoring into why the WRF isn't as robust with the QPF off Lake Erie. I wish there was some way we could tweak the model to ignore ice coverage, just to see what kind of output it would yield! We've seen plenty of LES events in the past dump major snowfall totals with considerable ice coverage; sometimes a completely ice-covered lake can still produce significant LES due to frictional convergence between the ice/land surface. I must say I'm really jealous of you guys. This looks like a fun event, but please...be smart/safe if you intend to chase this thing. The extreme cold means you can suddenly find yourself in way over your head. Mis-judging the edge of the road and finding yourself stuck in a ditch in -40F wind chills can become life-threatening very quickly. I would feel much better about this event if you were in town, given your recent track record of being a snow magnet... How did you make out with the coastal last week? 1-2 feet in that area of Mass seemed pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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