Syrmax Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Good luck out in WNY. Looks like a memorable event shaping up! Envious. Next week + plus looks meager in most of CNY for snow fans. Borderline disasterous for snowpack by mid month if medium range NWP verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I probably shouldn't reach much into models, but LES QPF off Erie isn't impressive on NAM/GEM and gives little to the Metro area. I was expecting to see crazy NAM clown maps at this point since I think it has the best setup for Metro dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 and notice thats only through 7pm Tuesday, with a good deal more coming after 7pm Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 and notice thats only through 7pm Tuesday, with a good deal more coming after 7pm Tuesday night. I doubt accumulations get much higher than this for storm totals. If they are I'd be shocked, growing ice concerns will remain a huge possibility with how cold its going to be. Also the smaller ice crystals will limit the rate at which the snow accumulates. The best shot at heavy LES for metro looks to be right after the front goes through, and than after the shortwave comes through which shifts the winds to SW from Tuesday Night into Weds evening. Although by that time the LES should be weakening with increased ice coverage and warm air advection from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lake Erie is completely wide open. The ice on the southwestern portion of the lake is not even solid yet. With temperatures in the 30s-40s today and tomorrow I'd expect no problem with ice coverage during the duration of this event. It does build fast and by Wednesday it may hinder the strength of the band, but will probably have very little impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wow, lots of discussion in here recently (though I'm not surprised)! I've been extremely impressed with this arctic outbreak in the Midwest/Lakes for several days now. One thing I've noticed, however, is that the high resolution WRF has backed off considerably on the expected QPF with the LES east of Lake Erie. Has anyone checked on the percentage of the lake that is now ice-covered? I would imagine the ice pack has rapidly increased over the last two weeks, and I'm wondering if that will steal some of the thunder from this event. I'm not even really sure if that matters, though. Any snow that falls with such arctic temperatures and 45-50 mph winds will essentially produce blizzard conditions. Does it really matter if this is a 3 foot event versus a 1-2 foot event? It's going to be incredibly high impact either way. Edit: I see BuffaloWeather is one step ahead of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The reduced QPF could actually be the result of the high winds...which can sometimes cause more of a "spray" off the lake rather than a consolidated lake band. The pre-Christmas event in 2008 was accompanied by high winds, and rather than one consolidated band there ended up being two or even three single bands embedded within a broad 20-30 mile wide area of lake snows. I could totally see something like that happening with this event. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The reduced QPF could actually be the result of the high winds...which can sometimes cause more of a "spray" off the lake rather than a consolidated lake band. The pre-Christmas event in 2008 was accompanied by high winds, and rather than one consolidated band there ended up being two or even three single bands embedded within a broad 20-30 mile wide area of lake snows. I could totally see something like that happening with this event. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html Scroll a few pages back. We had a discussion about that event. There was more than just strong winds with that event. The winds were sheered throughout the atmosphere. OSU stated he doubts that happens with this storm. Don Paul a local met also commented on this. "Not much directional shear currently visible going out into Monday. Disruption could occur, but unless we start getting sustained winds up near 40, not expecting much. Nor is the air progged to be dry. Dendritic growth still limited, but impressive snow in extreme instability is still likely." There was also the Blizzard of 1985 that we talked about earlier with 50 mph winds and the area received 2-4 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Scroll a few pages back. We had a discussion about that event. There was more than just strong winds with that event. The winds were sheered throughout the atmosphere. OSU stated he doubts that happens with this storm. Don Paul a local met also commented on this. "Not much directional shear currently visible going out into Monday. Disruption could occur, but unless we start getting sustained winds up near 40, not expecting much. Nor is the air progged to be dry. Dendritic growth still limited, but impressive snow in extreme instability is still likely." There was also the Blizzard of 1985 that we talked about earlier with 50 mph winds and the area received 2-4 feet of snow. The winds look like they will be around or just above 40 kts for most of the event, based on the GFS bufkit profile for BUF. There will also be some boundary layer shear with surface winds near 25 kts and 850 mb winds at times reaching around 40 kts. The cap height does get very favorable by 06z Tuesday, getting up to 700 mb and above. However, most of the profile is colder than the dendritic snow growth zone so snowflake production will be less effecient and ratios will be a bit lower than average for lake-effect. This still should be a solid event with the extreme instability but there are a few concerns. It will be interesting to see how the partially frozen lake will effect things as well. I'm not sure it will be too much of a hindrance since there is still a large area of open water to provide latent and sensible heat fluxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 NAM HIRES hours 48-60 as the lake effect gets going. It begins to drift northward at hour 60 towards Metro Buffalo. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 NAM through 84 hours keeps snow south of Buffalo still though. Maybe the data it has is that Erie is frozen because I think it would extend further inland with strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think the big issue on the NAM-WRF is that the profile is relatively dry, that's why it's producing lackluster bands. The GFS is much more moist which makes sense given that we are located well within the PV circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think the big issue on the NAM-WRF is that the profile is relatively dry, that's why it's producing lackluster bands. The GFS is much more moist which makes sense given that we are located well within the PV circulation. Agreed. The Euro is also very moist in the Monday Night to Tuesday Night frame. It weakens as it gets into Wednesday but primarily due to warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agreed. The Euro is also very moist in the Monday Night to Tuesday Night frame. It weakens as it gets into Wednesday but primarily due to warm air advection. Where are you seeing the Euro output? Wunderground has had a problem since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 yeah Buffaloweather, that's a good shot of ice cover. We shouldn't see anymore consolidation of ice given the winds forecasted through the event. Lake Erie ice is always susceptible to breakup from wind. Look at January 1977, the lake was frozen but we still received our second snowiest month on record at 68", a good portion of which was still lake-effect/enhancement with the parade of arctic clippers that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Where are you seeing the Euro output? Wunderground has had a problem since yesterday afternoon. Wunderground wasn't working for me from January 1st to the 3rd, but started working again with last nights run...Weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wunderground wasn't working for me from January 1st to the 3rd, but started working again with last nights run...Weird! lol that is weird maybe I should clear my cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 lol that is weird maybe I should clear my cache. Don Pauls take on the moisture availability. Thought it was a well thought out post. There will be more than enough open water for full tilt lake effect, dependent on shear (still looking minimal most of the time) and Rh. Speaking of Rh, the NAM shows considerably less than the GFS much of the time. The GFS shows very abundant Rh at the 850mb level throughout, and at the 700mb level, Rh becomes abundant at 48 hr (00z Tue) through Tues night. The NAM is less aggressive with the Rh. My own thoughts are early on, during Monday AM, Rh may come up shy in the wake of the cold front, but gradually increase in the afternoon becoming rich in supply by Monday evening. The NAM output shows winds in the bottom 35mb of the atmosphere at 250 much of the time. However, the RPM shows–as expected–heaviest amts to the south. Even so, it also shows some limited accum north and more near the City & ern ‘burbs. At this early point, odds continue to favor 1-2′ amts on the hills with lesser but not inconsequential amts closer to the City out to Batavia. Too close to call right now, and the embedded short waves will probably prove to tell the story of still difficult-to-pin-down oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Don Pauls take on the moisture availability. Thought it was a well thought out post. There will be more than enough open water for full tilt lake effect, dependent on shear (still looking minimal most of the time) and Rh. Speaking of Rh, the NAM shows considerably less than the GFS much of the time. The GFS shows very abundant Rh at the 850mb level throughout, and at the 700mb level, Rh becomes abundant at 48 hr (00z Tue) through Tues night. The NAM is less aggressive with the Rh. My own thoughts are early on, during Monday AM, Rh may come up shy in the wake of the cold front, but gradually increase in the afternoon becoming rich in supply by Monday evening. The NAM output shows winds in the bottom 35mb of the atmosphere at 250 much of the time. However, the RPM shows–as expected–heaviest amts to the south. Even so, it also shows some limited accum north and more near the City & ern ‘burbs. At this early point, odds continue to favor 1-2′ amts on the hills with lesser but not inconsequential amts closer to the City out to Batavia. Too close to call right now, and the embedded short waves will probably prove to tell the story of still difficult-to-pin-down oscillation. Reasonable take. Usually you don't have RH problems when you're embedded within the PV and north of the upper level jet. I'd favor the Boston/Colden area for the heaviest amounts in this event..but the immediate southern burbs of Buffalo and even Buffalo itself should do quite well. This band should be quite wide given the strong winds and the extreme instability. I don't know if you remember, but on February 4th-5th, 2007, the peak of that LES storm, but the Ontario band was nearly half as wide as the lake. There was also a very wide band in January 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Reasonable take. Usually you don't have RH problems when you're embedded within the PV and north of the upper level jet. I'd favor the Boston/Colden area for the heaviest amounts in this event..but the immediate southern burbs of Buffalo and even Buffalo itself should do quite well. This band should be quite wide given the strong winds and the extreme instability. I don't know if you remember, but on February 4th-5th, 2007, the peak of that LES storm, but the Ontario band was nearly half as wide as the lake. There was also a very wide band in January 1985. Yeah, I don't have much radar imagery of the 1985 band, but it seems judging by this picture that it was also quite a wide band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The 1995 band in comparison was much thinner. Probably due to virtually no wind during that storm? Its my avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 NYZ010-011-051730- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140106T2300Z-140108T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0003.140106T2300Z-140107T2300Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...9 TO 17 INCHES TUESDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 20. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR EVEN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING COLD FOR THOSE NOT IN SHELTER. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 NYZ007-008-051730- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.140105T2100Z-140106T0600Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140107T0500Z-140108T1500Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING AND HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...ICE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SNOW 2 TO 4 INCHES MONDAY...8 TO 16 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...11 TO 22 INCHES TUESDAY...AND UP TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TUG HILL. * WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 30 BELOW ZERO. * VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS WILL RESULT IN SLICKS ROADS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED. * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 NYZ006-051730- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140107T0200Z-140108T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0003.140107T0500Z-140107T2300Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY...8 TO 16 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...11 TO 21 INCHES TUESDAY...AND UP TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 BELOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED. * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR EVEN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING COLD FOR THOSE NOT IN SHELTER. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 NYZ012-019-020-085-051730- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140106T2000Z-140108T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0003.140106T2300Z-140107T2300Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 427 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES MONDAY...8 TO 16 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...9 TO 17 INCHES TUESDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. INTERSTATE 90 WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED. * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR EVEN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING COLD FOR THOSE NOT IN SHELTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'll be at Sandy Creek launching weather balloons... this looks just about perfect Hope it doesn't trend north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z nam looks **** for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 it has the wind pretty much in the 255-260 range on Tuesday when the LES is at it's peak,there could be a sharp cut-off line on the northern extent of the band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z nam looks **** for the metro area. I think the NAM has been initializing with the fact of lake Erie being mostly ice covered with this event. I have been using the NAM HIRES with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The SREF keeps the band mainly just south of Buffalo as well, this is going to be a really close call. But from past experiences when the wind gets to a WSW component it nearly always drifts farther north than modeled. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROBNE_3z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The SREF keeps the band mainly just south of Buffalo as well, this is going to be a really close call. But from past experiences when the wind gets to a WSW component it nearly always drifts farther north than modeled. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROBNE_3z/probsnwloop.html That's the old run,the new one has the band just right by the city even gets it to north towns for a while,like you said alot of times they underestimate how much backing occurs so will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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