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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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You sure the winds were strong enough?  

 

I know for certain that BUF verified a blizzard in the January 2008 wind storm but there was no warning issued.  Also, places east of Lake Ontario verified a blizzard in February 2007, but there wasn't one issued then.  The general set-up and conditions look similar to January 1985, to me.  

Here is the obs for that day.

2mot6r8.png

29dz4us.png

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pretty cool that Dec. 1995 shows up in the objective analogs.  

 

I lived on the west side of Buffalo during that storm. I actually have pictures of it somewhere I have to find them. I was 8 years old. That storm was the reason I became fascinated with the weather. Me and my uncle jumped off the 2nd story of our house into a huge snowpile. 38 inches of snow in 24 hours. ^_^

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I lived on the west side of Buffalo during that storm. I actually have pictures of it somewhere I have to find them. I was 8 years old. That storm was the reason I became fascinated with the weather. Me and my uncle jumped off the 2nd story of our house into a huge snowpile. 38 inches of snow in 24 hours. ^_^

Can't remember ****,i was only 3 lol.

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pretty cool that Dec. 1995 shows up in the objective analogs.  

 

 

DURING MONDAY WE WILL SEE THE TRANSITION OF THE DEEPENING LOW

SHIFTING NORTH INTO QUEBEC AND A STRENGTHENING 260 DEGREE WESTERLY

FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE FORECAST

TO DROP WELL BELOW -20C...EVEN TO -30C OVER WESTERN PA...CREATING

EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...LAKE INDUCED CAPE GREATER THAN

1200 J/KG...WITH OVER LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 12KFT ON

LAKE ERIE AND 15KFT ON LAKE ONTARIO. MUCH OF LAKE ERIE AND MOST OF LAKE

ONTARIO REMAINS ICE FREE SO THE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE WILL NOT

BE LIMITED BY ICE COVER. MEAN WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER OF AROUND

30KTS OR SO WOULD EXTEND LAKE BANDS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH

BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS

APPEARS TO BE YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT

EVENT FOR THE SNOW BELTS EAST OF THE LAKES. SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY

CIPS ANALOGS SHOW A STARTLING SIMILARITY BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING STORM

AND A LAKE EFFECT STORM FROM 12/9-11/1995 WHICH DELIVERED MORE THAN

THREE FEET OF SNOW TO METRO BUFFALO...ALTHOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL

PLACE THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE CITY.

 

 

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE

POSSIBLE WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT BEING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND

EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL

BE EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH

FORECAST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK ABOVE ZERO FROM THE NIAGARA

FRONTIER EAST TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER REGION

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE NEGATIVE READINGS THROUGH THE

DAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW YORK BETWEEN A DEEP LOW OVER

HUDSON BAY AND STRONG HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL KEEP 20 TO 30

MPH WINDS GUSTING THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS

WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY BUT

HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS KEEPING

WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND ZERO.

MID TO LATE WEEK MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TRACKING

FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK WOULD

KEEP NEW YORK ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM BRINGING A CHANCE OF

SNOW TO NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN IN THE MID 20S AND

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

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The latest Lake Effect Snow Watch update from 3:42 pm now has snow accumulating 2 feet of more off lake Erie.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

342 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

NYZ012-019-020-085-050445-

/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/

/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140106T2000Z-140108T1500Z/

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

342 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND

WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WATCH. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

FOR THE WIND CHILL WATCH.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 2 FEET

IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 40 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW

ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL

POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE

FOR EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THERE REMAINS SOME

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT

SNOW BANDS.

To me it certainly sounds like at least a Blizzard Watch should be issued, I mean what else could possibly warrant one? Temperatures well below zero, winds sustained in the 30mph range with total whiteouts and wind chills near -40F ! I understand they only want to use a Blizzard Warning for the most rare of cases but to me this upcoming even sure sounds like the one. A lot more significant than the Blizzard Warning that was issued on Long Island for winter storm "Hercules" a few days ago.

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The latest Lake Effect Snow Watch update from 3:42 pm now has snow accumulating 2 feet of more off lake Erie.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

342 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

NYZ012-019-020-085-050445-

/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/

/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140106T2000Z-140108T1500Z/

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

342 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND

WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WATCH. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

FOR THE WIND CHILL WATCH.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 2 FEET

IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 40 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW

ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL

POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE

FOR EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THERE REMAINS SOME

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT

SNOW BANDS.

To me it certainly sounds like at least a Blizzard Watch should be issued, I mean what else could possibly warrant one? Temperatures well below zero, winds sustained in the 30mph range with total whiteouts and wind chills near -40F ! I understand they only want to use a Blizzard Warning for the most rare of cases but to me this upcoming even sure sounds like the one. A lot more significant than the Blizzard Warning that was issued on Long Island for winter storm "Hercules" a few days ago.

 

The winds were much stronger on Long Island during that storm. The rest of the watches:

 

Northern Erie/GEN:

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE  EFFECT SNOW WATCH. MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  THE WIND CHILL WATCH.* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT  CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE FOOT OR MORE  IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

Southern Erie/Southern Tier

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND  WYOMING COUNTIES.* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE  EFFECT SNOW WATCH. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING  FOR THE WIND CHILL WATCH.* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT  CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 2 FEET  IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 40 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

Tug Hill counties:

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY...MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS.* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE  EFFECT SNOW WATCH. MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  THE WIND CHILL WATCH.* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT  CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 3 FEET  IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
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The latest Lake Effect Snow Watch update from 3:42 pm now has snow accumulating 2 feet of more off lake Erie.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

342 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

NYZ012-019-020-085-050445-

/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0001.140106T1600Z-140108T1100Z/

/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.140106T2000Z-140108T1500Z/

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

342 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND

WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WATCH. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

FOR THE WIND CHILL WATCH.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 2 FEET

IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 40 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW

ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL

POSE A RISK FOR FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE

FOR EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THERE REMAINS SOME

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT

SNOW BANDS.

To me it certainly sounds like at least a Blizzard Watch should be issued, I mean what else could possibly warrant one? Temperatures well below zero, winds sustained in the 30mph range with total whiteouts and wind chills near -40F ! I understand they only want to use a Blizzard Warning for the most rare of cases but to me this upcoming even sure sounds like the one. A lot more significant than the Blizzard Warning that was issued on Long Island for winter storm "Hercules" a few days ago.

Watch also still in effect for Northern Erie and Genesee, although it looks like focus on this event will be to the south.  Hopefully a shortwave or 2 can back the flow enough to at least get the band up to the airport for a time.  

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A nearly perfect NWS Forecast Discussion for snow lovers. I think we all will get our fair share of LES from this event. It starts Monday and does not end until Wednesday Evening.

 

THOUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE BELOW THE LAYER OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...HEAT FLUX FROM THE LAKES AS WELL AS GOOD UPWARD LIFT OVER
THE LAKES SHOULD ENABLE HEALTHY BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OFF BOTH LAKES.
THE EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS RISING TO OVER 10K SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOWBANDS OFF BOTH LAKES
TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OVER SEVERAL INCHES PER HOUR. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL OSCILLATE THE
SNOWBANDS...WITH THE SNOW BANDS LARGELY OVER THE SNOW BELTS AND AT
TIMES LIFTING TOWARDS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY OFF LAKE ERIE...FOCUSING UPON SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THIS
EVENT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3 FEET OF
SNOW WITH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE HIGHLIGHTED TIME
PERIOD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL DRIVE THESE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
REACHING THE GENESEE VALLEY ON THE WESTERLY FLOW.

COUPLED WITH THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE EXTREME COLD THAT WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES 20
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TOWARDS 40 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. WIND CHILL WATCHES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT.

 

IT WILL REMAIN COLD TUESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS...AND ON
WEDNESDAY THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ALLOWING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE
TEENS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LIKELY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY.

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Re: the blizzard question, I wonder if that would be reserved for synoptic systems b/c of the comparative localized nature of lake effect.  I don't recall any blizzard flags for lake effect events.  Seems NWS just uses the standard lake effect warnings/advisories for lake effect events, regardless of wind/temp conditions.  

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Re: the blizzard question, I wonder if that would be reserved for synoptic systems b/c of the comparative localized nature of lake effect.  I don't recall any blizzard flags for lake effect events.  Seems NWS just uses the standard lake effect warnings/advisories for lake effect events, regardless of wind/temp conditions.  

 

January 19-23, 1985, "The Blizzard of '85", legendary lake effect blizzard that crippled the Buffalo area, which still had '77 fresh in their memory, wind chills at times approached -60F, winds gusted to 50mph or more, and drifts reached 8 feet, it was one of the greatest Buffalo storms ever. Can we see another one of these? After the Blizzard of 1977, this is known as Buffalos 2nd most severe storm. Credit goes to WNYLakeEffect who put together one of the best databases of local LES events ever. He must have spent hours on this thing...Here is the post, bookmark this for future references I am sure you guys will enjoy it.

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15060

 

http://easternlakeerieweatherhistory.wikia.com/wiki/WNY_and_NWPA_Weather_History_Wiki

 

post-16475-1264297607.png

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January 19-23, 1985, "The Blizzard of '85", legendary lake effect blizzard that crippled the Buffalo area, which still had '77 fresh in their memory, wind chills at times approached -60F, winds gusted to 50mph or more, and drifts reached 8 feet, it was one of the greatest Buffalo storms ever. Can we see another one of these? After the Blizzard of 1977, this is known as Buffalos 2nd most severe storm. Credit goes to WNYLakeEffect who put together one of the best databases of local LES events ever. He must have spent hours on this thing...Here is the post, bookmark this for future references I am sure you guys will enjoy it.

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15060

 

http://easternlakeerieweatherhistory.wikia.com/wiki/WNY_and_NWPA_Weather_History_Wiki

 

 

Didn't know those were still around. I've still got all of the data (probably in excess of a million lines worth), but don't have the time to do it anymore. Sometime in the coming years I'd like to put together a program to sift through the data and map it all, day by day. Unfortunately I'm only proficient in Python at this time (though I'm going to pick up C++ soon), which I don't think will cut it, or at least do it most efficiently.

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Didn't know those were still around. I've still got all of the data, but don't have the time to do it anymore. Sometime in the coming years I'd like to put together a program to sift through the data and map it all, day by day. Unfortunately I'm only proficient in Python at this time (though I'm going to pick up C++ soon), which I don't think will cut it, or at least do it most efficiently.

 

Wow...Its you! haha! That would be an amazing project if you truly completed it. The 2nd website you began on seems like it would be proficient enough to use? Some type of database program like SQL seems like it would be the most efficient.

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