WNYLakeEffect Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Temp here has fallen to -5, a good bit lower than the forecast 3. BUF has brought our forecast high on Tuesday down to -7, which would undoubtedly be the all-time record low high recorded in Jamestown (temp data goes back to ~1893). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If trends stay similar, I think BUF will have to consider the B word for Monday and Tuesday. I was thinking that too. The NWS point n' click has Buffalo with sustained winds over 30 mph the majority of Tuesday. Requirement is 35 for 3 hours here, I think. And it would force Don Paul to stop saying we haven't had a blizzard warning since 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I was thinking that too. The NWS point n' click has Buffalo with sustained winds over 30 mph the majority of Tuesday. Requirement is 35 for 3 hours here, I think. And it would force Don Paul to stop saying we haven't had a blizzard warning since 1993. We haven't had one in BUF since January 1985. ROC and east had blizzard warnings in March 1993. The requirement is frequent gusts of at least 35 mph in snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 straight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We haven't had one in BUF since January 1985. ROC and east had blizzard warnings in March 1993. The requirement is frequent gusts of at least 35 mph in snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 straight hours. Back in December of 08 we had similar conditions with a LES event and they never issued it,this guys are pretty strict when it comes to blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like we've bottomed out at -9, temp now rising steadily, up to -5 with a light south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Back in December of 08 we had similar conditions with a LES event and they never issued it,this guys are pretty strict when it comes to blizzard warnings. You sure the winds were strong enough? I know for certain that BUF verified a blizzard in the January 2008 wind storm but there was no warning issued. Also, places east of Lake Ontario verified a blizzard in February 2007, but there wasn't one issued then. The general set-up and conditions look similar to January 1985, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 With the light winds, it wasn't that bad today. Tuesday is scary, I'm not going outside. Don't ban me, but I'm looking forward to the above average temps CPC is projecting long-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 With the light winds, it wasn't that bad today. Tuesday is scary, I'm not going outside. Don't ban me, but I'm looking forward to the above average temps CPC is projecting long-range. lol I don't blame you. I work outside nowadays, so it kinda makes me hate winter weather more than I ever have before. I work at Tarantino's in South Buffalo. I deliver produce to restaurants. I'm training on a bigger Rochester run next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Any chance the strong winds and increasing ice on lake erie will hinder organized bands from forming. I remember a few years ago the NWS calling for 12-18 inches across the metro, but because of the 30-40 mph winds the band never got going and KBUF received like 3-4 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The last few frames of the 0z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the jackpot might be just south of buffalo with this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 HPC QPF (Days 4-5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Latest NAM and RGEM models have shifted Sunday's storm way to the northwest. May be rain for both Buffalo and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The tail end of the SREFs catch on to the Lake Effect as well. It also shows a few inches immediately following the cold front going through. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREFPROBNE_3z/probsnwloop.html Also plumes: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Latest NAM and RGEM models have shifted Sunday's storm way to the northwest. May be rain for both Buffalo and Toronto. Yeah it sure does look that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah it sure does look that way. What a huge disappointment if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Any chance the strong winds and increasing ice on lake erie will hinder organized bands from forming. I remember a few years ago the NWS calling for 12-18 inches across the metro, but because of the 30-40 mph winds the band never got going and KBUF received like 3-4 inches total. Given the huge instability in the sounding, I don't think the strong winds will be all that much of hindrance for the band. It could be a situation where the band is a bit wider than normal and maybe like 1-3"/hr. instead of 3-5"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We'd rather have the storm as far west as possible for LES in BUF....If the low cut too far east...it would tend to pull the PV further east and cause a predominantly west flow instead of west-southwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We'd rather have the storm as far west as possible for LES in BUF....If the low cut too far east...it would tend to pull the PV further east and cause a predominantly west flow instead of west-southwest flow. I figured this to be the case, hence why I am kinda happy it is going more northwest. I remember distinctly the 2010 Lake effect event doing the same thing. The low cut up west of us and intense lake effect set up immediately following the passage of the low in east aurora/hamburg area then drifted northward into west seneca/south buffalo and stayed there for 24+ hours. Also did you get my PM message in your inbox? The event began quickly and evolved from a departing major synoptic storm which drenched the region with 1 to 2 inches of rain early on Wed. Dec 1st. Temperatures started the day in the 50s but fell rapidly as the storm departed. Cold air wrapped in fast enough to change the rain to a period of synoptic snow during the morning, dropping 2 to 4 inches. Then a lake plume developed by early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it rolled into the Buffalo South Towns. The band then lifted north a bit on a 255 flow during the early evening and remained pretty much locked in place for the next 30 hours or so. None of the parameters for lake effect were outstanding, but they were all quite favorable for a near perfect early season lake effect plume off Erie 850 mb temps of -11c, a fairly high equilibrium level/inversion (10k ft), very good moisture fields below the inversion, good snow growth, no shear and moderate winds. There was the typical thunder and lightning we see during early season events but nothing extreme. The wind fields finally weakened with increasing shear as a surface ridge built in by Friday morning (3rd), disrupting and dissipating the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We'd rather have the storm as far west as possible for LES in BUF....If the low cut too far east...it would tend to pull the PV further east and cause a predominantly west flow instead of west-southwest flow. Agree...as depicted by the NAM, I would envision a better opportunity for the ART and BUF metros to cash in nicely...instability super high and long axis trajectory over Erie....any prog. showing SLP track east of BUF/ART would hit the southtowns and northern Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not to mention that with this super cold airmass, I'd think the micro ridge behind the front would be sharper than depicted by the NAM, thus a more pronounced southerly component behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I figured this to be the case, hence why I am kinda happy it is going more northwest. I remember distinctly the 2010 Lake effect event doing the same thing. The low cut up west of us and intense lake effect set up immediately following the passage of the low in east aurora/hamburg area then drifted northward into west seneca/south buffalo and stayed there for 24+ hours. Also did you get my PM message in your inbox? The event began quickly and evolved from a departing major synoptic storm which drenched the region with 1 to 2 inches of rain early on Wed. Dec 1st. Temperatures started the day in the 50s but fell rapidly as the storm departed. Cold air wrapped in fast enough to change the rain to a period of synoptic snow during the morning, dropping 2 to 4 inches. Then a lake plume developed by early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it rolled into the Buffalo South Towns. The band then lifted north a bit on a 255 flow during the early evening and remained pretty much locked in place for the next 30 hours or so. None of the parameters for lake effect were outstanding, but they were all quite favorable for a near perfect early season lake effect plume off Erie 850 mb temps of -11c, a fairly high equilibrium level/inversion (10k ft), very good moisture fields below the inversion, good snow growth, no shear and moderate winds. There was the typical thunder and lightning we see during early season events but nothing extreme. The wind fields finally weakened with increasing shear as a surface ridge built in by Friday morning (3rd), disrupting and dissipating the band. A foot of snow behind HSBC arena and 4 inches at cityhall,talk about insane cutoff lol.. i only had a dusting to an inch from that one btw The Buffalo Airport was right at the cutoff, with 2 inches at its northwest corner and a foot at its southeast corner! Further west, no snow fell in Buffalo at North St., 4 inches at City Hall and a foot at HSBC arena, probably the most remarkable gradient ever seen across the city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not to mention that with this super cold airmass, I'd think the micro ridge behind the front would be sharper than depicted by the NAM, thus a more pronounced southerly component behind it. The lake-aggregate trough should be pronounced in such a high instability situation like this. Sometimes the models aren't great at picking up the thermal and latent heat release from Superior/Huron/Michigan causing lowering pressures to the west and a stronger southerly component than originally progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Dec 2010 was a pretty warm and wet snowfall and the lake induced instability was lackluster. It was snowing at 2"/hr. for a long period of time instead of those epic heavy snow bands that BUF occasionally sees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 A foot of snow behind HSBC arena and 4 inches at cityhall,talk about insane cutoff lol.. i only had a dusting to an inch from that one btw Yeah I lived in northern OP at the time of this event, we had 28 inches of snow at my location. I actually still have a video of the recorded thunder snow during that event. Fast forward to 1 minute. I recorded around 50 occurrences of thunder within a 24 hour period from that event and forwarded my data to the NWS as they asked for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS looks a bit weaker and east of the NAM when the storm gets to our latitude. Low near Binghamton at hour 54 on GFS compared to location near Toronto on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 GFS not buying the west trend...SLP right over SYR and my head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 And the model mayhem continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Is there any analogs to compare the atmospheric set-up to this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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