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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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There is no ice on the lake as of this moment, usually takes 2 weeks after it hits 32 degrees to completely freeze over. I say by the 15th of January the lake will be almost completely frozen. But even then there are several lake effect events of 6-12 inches that occurred while the lake was completely frozen. This is due to the friction and gaps in b between the ice flows which result in lift and condensation. I forget the scientific term for it, maybe OSU can help with that. Here is an example of such an event.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html

Should get a good view of ice conditions tomorrow with clearing skies (http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=e&page=1).

 

With this recent cold shot, I would be surprised if we don't see some decent ice formation on at least the western 1/3rd of the lake tomorrow.  

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That was a gift lol,never would i have thought we would get those amounts from a frozen lake.  :thumbsup:

There has been several events that this area has received decent accumulations from a nearly frozen lake Erie. I don't understand why the NWS took away years 1998-2003 from there lake effect page or I would find a few more examples. =(

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There is no ice on the lake as of this moment, usually takes 2 weeks after it hits 32 degrees to completely freeze over. I say by the 15th of January the lake will be almost completely frozen. But even then there are several lake effect events of 6-12 inches that occurred while the lake was completely frozen. This is due to the friction and gaps in b between the ice flows which result in lift and condensation. I forget the scientific term for it, maybe OSU can help with that. Here is an example of such an event.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html

 

LOL, you guys are really scraping the bottom of the barrel if you are banking on frozen Erie Lake events.  You've had a pretty good year relative to the last 5, I don't think you need to bank on such a rare phenomenon to "salvage" your season.  Turn in your Lake Erie Lake effect card and get ready for some synoptic events.  

 

That said, you certainly have one more shot at a big one early next week.  The season would really go out on a bang if some of the models verify.  Good luck to all the 240/250 flow fans!

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LOL, you guys are really scraping the bottom of the barrel if you are banking on frozen Erie Lake events.  You've had a pretty good year relative to the last 5, I don't think you need to bank on such a rare phenomenon to "salvage" your season.  Turn in your Lake Erie Lake effect card and get ready for some synoptic events.  

 

That said, you certainly have one more shot at a big one early next week.  The season would really go out on a bang if some of the models verify.  Good luck to all the 240/250 flow fans!

 

LOL, you guys are really scraping the bottom of the barrel if you are banking on frozen Erie Lake events.  You've had a pretty good year relative to the last 5, I don't think you need to bank on such a rare phenomenon to "salvage" your season.  Turn in your Lake Erie Lake effect card and get ready for some synoptic events.  

 

That said, you certainly have one more shot at a big one early next week.  The season would really go out on a bang if some of the models verify.  Good luck to all the 240/250 flow fans!

You live in a sweet spot lol,must be nice to get LES from both lakes and cash in on synoptic events  :arrowhead:

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There is no ice on the lake as of this moment, usually takes 2 weeks after it hits 32 degrees to completely freeze over. I say by the 15th of January the lake will be almost completely frozen. But even then there are several lake effect events of 6-12 inches that occurred while the lake was completely frozen. This is due to the friction and gaps in b between the ice flows which result in lift and condensation. I forget the scientific term for it, maybe OSU can help with that. Here is an example of such an event.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html

I remember that one well. Ice coverage maps showed clear breaks in the ice NE of Long Point for days, which was weird to me because that's usually the area in the eastern basin where it freezes first. I'm still curious what happened there. I asked Don Paul at the time, and he said that's beyond his expertise.

 

And there has been some events with a frozen lake, I think because the SE part of the lake rarely has thick ice. That may be different with this cold January, though.

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LOL, you guys are really scraping the bottom of the barrel if you are banking on frozen Erie Lake events.  You've had a pretty good year relative to the last 5, I don't think you need to bank on such a rare phenomenon to "salvage" your season.  Turn in your Lake Erie Lake effect card and get ready for some synoptic events.  

 

That said, you certainly have one more shot at a big one early next week.  The season would really go out on a bang if some of the models verify.  Good luck to all the 240/250 flow fans!

 

I will never turn in my Lake Erie card. ^_^ I remember the lake being frozen many times and still salvaging decent events from it. The season never ends until winter ends in regards to lake effect. haha! Yeah I noticed the Euro/Nam are all hinting at a progressive flow on Monday into Weds with several shortwaves going through which would enhance the snow and spray the lake effect around. We should get a good visual of how much ice is currently on the Lake with how sunny it is today.

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I remember that one well. Ice coverage maps showed clear breaks in the ice NE of Long Point for days, which was weird to me because that's usually the area in the eastern basin where it freezes first. I'm still curious what happened there. I asked Don Paul at the time, and he said that's beyond his expertise.

 

And there has been some events with a frozen lake, I think because the SE part of the lake rarely has thick ice. That may be different with this cold January, though.

 

The south western portion of the lake near the Cleveland Basin always freezes first. In fact there was already some ice on it from the last visible satellite image. The deepest portion and the last to freeze is usually off the coast of Dunkirk. Here is a beautiful picture of it..

 

Lake-erie-bottom-depth-map.gif

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There we have it:

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENINGTO 4 AM EST SATURDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.* HAZARDS...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT  SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW TONIGHT.
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Long lead time for a lake effect snow watch.  Interesting....

 

Yeah definitely, probably trying to let the public know this has the potential to be a significant event. If this comes to fruition I want to say OSU was talking about this potential 10 days in advance. That is why I trust these forums more than local mets. ^_^

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where in Ithaca did you measure 13"? Was it in a snow drift?

 

I'd say Ithaca got 8-10"...it surely doesn't look like it's over a foot

I'm on the West hill towards Trumansburg. It did get kind of tough to measure with the wind starting to blow the snow around considerably, but we definitely got more than 10 inches here. The 13 is an estimate and not an exact measurement. But some of the reports in the Public Information Statement (5-6 inches??) are really way too low.

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Finished up with about 10-12" here. Because of the wind direction, much of my driveway was under 2 + foot drifts...but with the relative lack of wind and some sunshine, clearing it was actually somewhat enjoyable.

 

Looking forward to seeing if the temp can plummet this evening before the winds pick up and high clouds arrive. Outdoor therm currently reading 4.5 deg.

 

Chris

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Looks like a land breeze induced lake-effect band has formed over Lake Ontario. Should be some nice tea kettle snow that may just touch the eastern shoreline. There's also a similar area of snow forming over the eastern end of Lake Erie, probably enhanced by some low-level warm air advection as well.

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Looks like a land breeze induced lake-effect band has formed over Lake Ontario. Should be some nice tea kettle snow that may just touch the eastern shoreline. There's also a similar area of snow forming over the eastern end of Lake Erie, probably enhanced by some low-level warm air advection as well.

That tea kettling extended down into Phoenix and Clay...15 miles or so inland SE of the lake...albeit lightly. It covered my vehicle while i was in the gym but its gone now as it seems to be shifting north.

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