Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

About 6 inches here. Very similar to the last cold storm we had a few weeks ago - long duration but only occasional bursts of moderate snow.

Looking like 20"+ will accumulate in some portions of Rochester:

...MONROE COUNTY...

GREECE 18.0 354 PM 1/02 TRAINED SPOTTER

Close to 8 inches here,hard to measure with all the drifts going on.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

270-300 flow... I was really looking forward to a decent Metro event before the lake freezes. This was literally our last shot. =(

It's absolutely ridiculous that BUF is so specific that the wind direction won't favorable Buffalo.  The PV is between Superior and James Bay...exactly where we want it lol.  The Euro has the band in BUF for an extended period of time.  It should be very good somewhere east of the Lakes.  The Euro has 850 temps of -29C at the peak of arctic blast...almost historic cold.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's absolutely ridiculous that BUF is so specific that the wind direction won't favorable Buffalo.  The PV is between Superior and James Bay...exactly where we want it lol.  The Euro has the band in BUF for an extended period of time.  It should be very good somewhere east of the Lakes.  The Euro has 850 temps of -29C at the peak of arctic blast...almost historic cold.  

 

 

Thanks for posting, I was getting a tad worried. Check out what the Cleveland NWS office states...

 

UNFORTUNATELY THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY WIND AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT

LAKES/EASTERN CANADA AND THE HIGH SITS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO

VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW CHANCES DURING THIS TIME...BUT

MAINLY FOR THE EXTREME EAST SNOWBELT. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE

WSW OR SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION WEDNESDAY INTO

THURSDAY AS THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO EXIT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's absolutely ridiculous that BUF is so specific that the wind direction won't favorable Buffalo.  The PV is between Superior and James Bay...exactly where we want it lol.  The Euro has the band in BUF for an extended period of time.  It should be very good somewhere east of the Lakes.  The Euro has 850 temps of -29C at the peak of arctic blast...almost historic cold.  

 

Do you have any idea why weatherunderground Euro model isn't working properly?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You all in the North country are going to really freeze over the next several days. Not sure how you do it. Down here in Little Havana, temp now -1F w/ SN-.

18 Zul GFS looking more like the ECM...which would bring a variety of hydrometeors to CNY and mainly SN to WNY for Monday. Could be a memorable run for WNY and the North Country east of Lake Ontario as indicated by virtually all NWP, if the synoptic snow and then WSW wind driven LES and cold temps materialize next week. Will probably be a bit boring elsewhere unless you like nasty cold. Pattern looks to relax a bit late next week but no signs of a genuine pattern change anywhere that I have seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe 6 or 7" just N of SYR. We get this amount of snow in a bad couple/few hours from the lake sometimes, so not all that impressive, other than the cold. Hopefully we crack the 10" mark though dendrite size and intensity hasn't been impressive for the most part. Overall, this seems to being going as forecasted, here.

About 8" total here in L'pool....at 8pm.  I am really interested in the LES early next week....for both lakes...I would not rule out ART and BUF yet as being the bullseye...I really think the storm track for Sun/Sun night will be further west (re: Euro), which would aid in keeping the major LES bands a bit further north of where the NWS BUF's current thinking is.  If indeed we have a further east track, then feets of snow will pile up in the northern parts of ski country south of Buf and of course the Tug.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You all in the North country are going to really freeze over the next several days. Not sure how you do it. Down here in Little Havana, temp now -1F w/ SN-.

18 Zul GFS looking more like the ECM...which would bring a variety of hydrometeors to CNY and mainly SN to WNY for Monday. Could be a memorable run for WNY and the North Country east of Lake Ontario as indicated by virtually all NWP, if the synoptic snow and then WSW wind driven LES and cold temps materialize next week. Will probably be a bit boring elsewhere unless you like nasty cold. Pattern looks to relax a bit late next week but no signs of a genuine pattern change anywhere that I have seen.

Check out the friday night forecast for KSLK.  :stun:

Friday Night:Mostly clear, with a low around -26. Light and variable wind.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A local Toronto met is saying that Lake Erie may be frozen over a week from now.

 

There is no ice on the lake as of this moment, usually takes 2 weeks after it hits 32 degrees to completely freeze over. I say by the 15th of January the lake will be almost completely frozen. But even then there are several lake effect events of 6-12 inches that occurred while the lake was completely frozen. This is due to the friction and gaps in b between the ice flows which result in lift and condensation. I forget the scientific term for it, maybe OSU can help with that. Here is an example of such an event.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is no ice on the lake as of this moment, usually takes 2 weeks after it hits 32 degrees to completely freeze over. I say by the 15th of January the lake will be almost completely frozen. But even then there are several lake effect events of 6-12 inches that occurred while the lake was completely frozen. This is due to the friction and gaps in b between the ice flows which result in lift and condensation. I forget the scientific term for it, maybe OSU can help with that. Here is an example of such an event.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html

That was a gift lol,never would i have thought we would get those amounts from a frozen lake.  :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

latest spotter reports 

 

 

000
NOUS41 KBUF 030344
PNSBUF
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-031544-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EST THU JAN 02 2014

REPORTS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR AREA. A FINAL 2 DAY STORM TOTAL WILL BE SENT TOMORROW
MORNING.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 11.0 427 PM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER
ALLEGANY PARK 7.0 515 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
W MONTEZUMA 4.0 549 PM 1/02 COCORAHS

...ERIE COUNTY...
WEST FALLS 9.0 745 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA
TONAWANDA 8.5 920 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA
BUFFALO 7.8 920 PM 1/02 ELMWOOD
ALDEN 7.0 915 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA
CLARENCE 7.0 900 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.6 1000 PM 1/02 ASOS
EAST AURORA 5.9 500 PM 1/02 COCORAHS

...GENESEE COUNTY...
PAVILION 8.2 315 PM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

...LEWIS COUNTY...
LOWVILLE 4.0 910 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
SOUTH LIVONIA 8.0 300 PM 1/02 PUBLIC
GENESEO 7.0 700 PM 1/02 PUBLIC

...MONROE COUNTY...
GREECE 18.0 354 PM 1/02 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEBSTER 13.0 800 PM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER
ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 9.9 1000 PM 1/02 ASOS
BRIGHTON 9.0 837 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA
SCOTTSVILLE 8.2 825 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA
CHILI CENTER 8.0 750 PM 1/02 TRAINED SPOTTER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
OSWEGO 11.5 500 PM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER
FULTON 8.0 900 PM 1/02 PUBLIC
ALTMAR 4.5 745 PM 1/02 PUBLIC

...WAYNE COUNTY...
WALWORTH 14.6 800 PM 1/02 COCORAHS
NEWARK 6.1 835 PM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA

$

THOMAS
Link to comment
Share on other sites

About 8" total here in L'pool....at 8pm.  I am really interested in the LES early next week....for both lakes...I would not rule out ART and BUF yet as being the bullseye...I really think the storm track for Sun/Sun night will be further west (re: Euro), which would aid in keeping the major LES bands a bit further north of where the NWS BUF's current thinking is.  If indeed we have a further east track, then feets of snow will pile up in the northern parts of ski country south of Buf and of course the Tug.

Ugh yeah, 0Z GFS is now west, blow torching everyone in CNY on MON out to at least ROC...BUF would have early ptype issues but be mostly SN. 850 lows heading to your west are always #losers unless you can dam, but our location not good for that. After the FROPA looks like the lake snow will indeed be north. We'll have to hope for Lake Erie scraps. Humiliating. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...