WNash Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hi folks-- I have been posting here for years (I moved to WNY only last year), and am at WIVB's blog as well. My initials are BP-- you have probably seen me arguing with the trolls there. Great to see so many familiar names over here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I do have to say that as much as I can't stand the trolls there, Don's posts and comments are great, so I don't see myself abandoning WIVB... yet. And he hates the trolling as well. Good guy, and good met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It appears that the 12Z GFS is still clinging to its more southerly/easterly track for the Monday-Tuesday event. In fact, it's trended colder for us here in eastern NY where the Euro has been threatening us with more of a snow to rain event. The Euro track puts down some liquid rain, but with our existing pack, I think we can absorb it, then the flash freeze would make for a good concrete base going forward... not like the mega-torch we had with the last rain event that destroyed everything. But I'll take the GFS 12Z track for $100 Alex, over what we've been seeing from the models thus far. 8 degrees and close to 6" thus far for the current event up on the hill in western Schenectady county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I do have to say that as much as I can't stand the trolls there, Don's posts and comments are great, so I don't see myself abandoning WIVB... yet. And he hates the trolling as well. Good guy, and good met. To each there own, but I have to say there are many more mets here that chime in on these forums than one Met at WIVB. I've learned so much on these forums, that would be impossible without the posts from all the degreed mets here. He also allows trolls to run rampant on his blog, while here they are thrown out immediately. There really is no comparison between that blog and this forum. Next weeks storm is looking good for another decent snowfall for this area in WNY, those in eastern New York might have precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 For those that don't know me, I build a luge in my yard every year. It made national news 5 years ago. Since then, it's gotten much bigger. This year should out do any other. As soon as construction is done, I'll post a video of it. Here is one of my favorite clips from 3 years ago. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_hti_6q02A Wow. How cool is this??? You build this all yourself?? Too bad my old back can't handle things like this anymore... that looks like a hell of a lot of fun! Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 4F here with 5" of new snow on the ground. Starting to get some light dendrites again after a brief lull. Assuming my measurements were similar to the airport, the 5" translates to 0.35" liquid or a ratio of about 14.3 to 1. The maximum lifting was in the region of temperatures around -10C, outside of the dendritic snow growth zone. This led to finer snowflakes and lower ratios. The 16z RAP shows the best lift over the next few hours a little higher up in the atmosphere around 700 mb, where temperatures are in the dendritic snow growth zone. Later this evening as the coastal low begins to deepen, the best lift will be lower in the atmosphere around 850 mb. This layer will also be in the dendritic snow growth zone so ratios should improve going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Buffalos and Erie Pa radar has both gone out, perfect timing eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 About 4"+ here in CNY. Looks beautiful in the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0Z Euro also made a big step towards further east track similar to GFS...for next m onday's system. 12Z should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Only 2.5" in Altmar so far. Very light/fine snow falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not adding up to anything here today... since the 3" overnight it's been snowing very very lightly all day and got maybe a 1/2" lol. Wind has been picking up with some blowing snow. Currently 9* brrrrrrrrr. Seems like my location will be a little too far north to get into the higher snow totals then again what do I know haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Hill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow. How cool is this??? You build this all yourself?? Too bad my old back can't handle things like this anymore... that looks like a hell of a lot of fun! Welcome to the board! Thank You. I get some help, but I do most of the work. I loose 10-15 lbs every winter building the luge. Moving snow is my gym membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Good luck with the storm everyone. Since I'm not at school right now this will probably turn into NYS's biggest synoptic storm since February 2011. Hoping to squeeze out 4-6 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 5" in Phoenix. I think we see an uptick in intensities over the next few hours by looking at radar. Anyone see the Euro for Tuesday morning? Read it sends a low to Watertown by Monday morning. Wondering if it bombs out and pushes that -30 C air over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 about 6" here so far. Continued light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 5" in Phoenix. I think we see an uptick in intensities over the next few hours by looking at radar. Anyone see the Euro for Tuesday morning? Read it sends a low to Watertown by Monday morning. Wondering if it bombs out and pushes that -30 C air over us. Hmmmm... so still significant differences between the GFS and Euro solutions then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To each there own, but I have to say there are many more mets here that chime in on these forums than one Met at WIVB. I've learned so much on these forums, that would be impossible without the posts from all the degreed mets here. He also allows trolls to run rampant on his blog, while here they are thrown out immediately. There really is no comparison between that blog and this forum. Next weeks storm is looking good for another decent snowfall for this area in WNY, those in eastern New York might have precip issues. Oh, I totally agree with you about the quality of the forum, and also about the number of great mets here. But Don seems a cut above the other TV mets in Buffalo. A lot of the problems with the blog have to do with poor administrative tools available-- I don't think he has the time it would take to moderate that blog effectively and WIVB isn't putting the resources into it. It's bad technology with bad support. I'm glad that it's up and running at all, because it's a rare instance where a TV met articulates the reasoning behind his forecasting. This place is far, far better of course! I have learned more here in a week than in a year there. But I will put up with the trolls there because he's an experienced TV met willing to take the time to explain his reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And I am thrilled to see the WNY forum here getting so many posts-- thanks to everyone! As a weather enthusiast I got lucky in moving to the region with some of the most exciting winter wx in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hmmmm... so still significant differences between the GFS and Euro solutions then. 12Z EC ends up with a slp over about KART...looks more wound up than 0Z (which was in decent agreement w/ GFS. The 24 hr increments on Euro make it hard to figure out track details. EC takes trough neg tilt sooner than GFS, which affects storm dev. and track. Several days left to go. Moderate sn here now. Has been lighter most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FOR THOSE WHO LIKE IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT FORWARD...THERE IS A 100PERCENT CERTAINTY THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THE DETAILS...READ ON. AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEUTRAL ENSO PATTERN OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. IN PREVIOUS EVENTS (PAST SIX WEEKS)...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PARKED OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES (>60N) OF CANADA RATHER THAN OVER SIBERIA. DURING THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FOUND ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POLE (WHERE IT TYPICALLY IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...A LARGE CHUNK OF -30 H85 AIR WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEG F UNDER NORMAL VALUES INTO MID WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THAT OUR DAILY TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LEVELS. AS THE FRIGID CORE OF ARCTIC AIR LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...OUR READINGS WILL MODIFY TO MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS. IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME RIPE FOR SUBSTANTIAL LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF A SUB-995MB LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE IS NO DOUBT ABOUT THE HYPERBOREAL AIR THAT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ITS WAKE. H85 TEMPS WILL PLUNGE FROM AROUND -10C MONDAY MORNING TO ABOUT -20C BY NIGHTFALL. EVEN WITH LK TEMPS HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABV FREEZING...THIS AIR WILL ESTABLISH EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...THE LI CAP WILL BE CLOSE TO/ABOVE 10K FT FOR 24-36 HOURS...SO THE ONLY VARIABLE IN QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITHIN A PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW. IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW (FIRST HALF OF MON)...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE RESPONSE TO A MINIMUM. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN WHILE A WELL ALIGNED 270-290 FLOW (PENDING YOUR LAKE OF CHOICE) WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL TARGET THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND PARTICULARLY SITES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY LAKE SNOW EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL LIKELY COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX SHOULD DISRUPT THE ORGANIZED BANDS. H925-85 WINDS VEERING TO 300 DEG BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH THE LAKE SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE THE WINDS BACK ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DENDRITIC GROWTH...SO THIS SHOULD TEMPER THE ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS A MORE DENSE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. BY THURSDAY...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE SFC BASED RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROMOTE GENERAL WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Close to 7 inches on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FOR THOSE WHO LIKE IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT FORWARD...THERE IS A 100PERCENT CERTAINTY THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THE DETAILS...READ ON. AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEUTRAL ENSO PATTERN OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. IN PREVIOUS EVENTS (PAST SIX WEEKS)...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PARKED OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES (>60N) OF CANADA RATHER THAN OVER SIBERIA. DURING THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FOUND ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POLE (WHERE IT TYPICALLY IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...A LARGE CHUNK OF -30 H85 AIR WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEG F UNDER NORMAL VALUES INTO MID WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THAT OUR DAILY TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LEVELS. AS THE FRIGID CORE OF ARCTIC AIR LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...OUR READINGS WILL MODIFY TO MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS. IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME RIPE FOR SUBSTANTIAL LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF A SUB-995MB LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE IS NO DOUBT ABOUT THE HYPERBOREAL AIR THAT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ITS WAKE. H85 TEMPS WILL PLUNGE FROM AROUND -10C MONDAY MORNING TO ABOUT -20C BY NIGHTFALL. EVEN WITH LK TEMPS HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABV FREEZING...THIS AIR WILL ESTABLISH EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...THE LI CAP WILL BE CLOSE TO/ABOVE 10K FT FOR 24-36 HOURS...SO THE ONLY VARIABLE IN QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITHIN A PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW. IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW (FIRST HALF OF MON)...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WITHIN A VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE RESPONSE TO A MINIMUM. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN WHILE A WELL ALIGNED 270-290 FLOW (PENDING YOUR LAKE OF CHOICE) WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL TARGET THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND PARTICULARLY SITES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY LAKE SNOW EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL LIKELY COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX SHOULD DISRUPT THE ORGANIZED BANDS. H925-85 WINDS VEERING TO 300 DEG BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH THE LAKE SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE THE WINDS BACK ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DENDRITIC GROWTH...SO THIS SHOULD TEMPER THE ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS A MORE DENSE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. BY THURSDAY...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE SFC BASED RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROMOTE GENERAL WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. -- End Changed Discussion -- 270-300 flow... I was really looking forward to a decent Metro event before the lake freezes. This was literally our last shot. =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NWS has a high of -2 on Tuesday (after a low of -15) for Jamestown. Never seen them give us a subzero high before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hi everyone...my first post on this forum, though I've been a member for quite a while. I'm located in western Monroe county, about 5 miles east of Brockport, ~10 miles west of Rochester (will update my profile shortly). Quite a storm...was just out trying to get a snowfall measurement but it's pretty difficult with all the drifting. After slogging through many 2' drifts a number of measurements in a flat, open area suggest about 9-10 inches has fallen. Temps have tumbled the last couple of hours, after holding in the low teens most of the day it's now at 8 deg. Still snowing steadily, though not the same intensity as earlier. Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hi everyone...my first post on this forum, though I've been a member for quite a while. I'm located in western Monroe county, about 5 miles east of Brockport, ~10 miles west of Rochester (will update my profile shortly). Quite a storm...was just out trying to get a snowfall measurement but it's pretty difficult with all the drifting. After slogging through many 2' drifts a number of measurements in a flat, open area suggest about 9-10 inches has fallen. Temps have tumbled the last couple of hours, after holding in the low teens most of the day it's now at 8 deg. Still snowing steadily, though not the same intensity as earlier. Chris Welcome aboard. Nice to have another poster from the area. It seems like Rochester Metro is taking the full hit from this storm. Wouldn't be surprised to see some foot and a half totals over there after all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Some totals from the Rochester area from this morning. Some of these locations have to be nearing 18 inches by now. ...MONROE COUNTY...GREECE 13.0 1100 AM 1/02 TRAINED SPOTTER1 ENE BROCKPORT 11.5 1134 AM 1/02 COCORAHSWEBSTER 10.0 1045 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Snow is coming down pretty good in buffalo,if this keeps up a foot will not be out of question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 16 inches of snow here in Webster thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe 6 or 7" just N of SYR. We get this amount of snow in a bad couple/few hours from the lake sometimes, so not all that impressive, other than the cold. Hopefully we crack the 10" mark though dendrite size and intensity hasn't been impressive for the most part. Overall, this seems to being going as forecasted, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Got about 5-6" here with the wind blowing pretty good. can't believe that has snowed all day but yet not amounted to hardly anything lol. Temp is down to a whopping 1 with win chill at -22 BRRRRRRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.