Sled Hill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks for the invite Ayuud. I hope this is the right thread to be posting on. Just getting used to this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks for the invite Ayuud. I hope this is the right thread to be posting on. Just getting used to this site. SLED!! Yes, welcome to our forum brother. So nice to have another one join the American crew. Me and Devin migrated over here from WIVB Blog 3 years ago. You'll see that this forum blows away that one in terms of what you can learn. Also no trolls (C from P) There are some incredible Mets here that post quite often. You don't just have to post here, you'll find many of us browsing on the great lakes sub forum or even Massachusetts area that has a very dedicated group of well versed Mets. Welcome aboard! Post a video of the luge you make every year, some of the regulars here have got to see that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Early next weeks storm system QPF from the Euro. Looks like it cuts just west of us. After this thing goes through is when the Lake Effect begins in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for the invite Ayuud. I hope this is the right thread to be posting on. Just getting used to this site. Welcome to the forums John!!!! Great to have another Orchard Park poster on these forums. Youll definitley like it better on here than WIVB! Id still like to come see the luge sometime soon John! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for the invite Ayuud. I hope this is the right thread to be posting on. Just getting used to this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What's going on in the Buffalo area?.. Looks like some possible lake enhancement on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What's going on in the Buffalo area?.. Looks like some possible lake enhancement on radar? Not really sure but it's snowing nicely outside,we have about 1.5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not much changed on 0Z NAM. Text extraction of qpf: SYR 0.56 ROC 0.68 BGM 0.67 BUF 0.60 ART 0.26 AVP 0.44 ALB 0.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What's going on in the Buffalo area?.. Looks like some possible lake enhancement on radar? That's not lake enhancement. It is lift being generated as the system lifts northward. It is shown from this map. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrentweather_large.html The only lake enhancement from this system is tomorrow evening as the coastal system wraps up and winds come out of the Northeast. This initial batch will hit and we will get into a lull for a few hours before the real event hits tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Another illustration of whats happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 2.3" as of 11:30PM,still some light snow outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Another illustration of whats happening. Thanks, makes sense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0Z GFS looks like it holds serve...qpf similar to NAM, particularly in the distribution pattern. Biggest drama appears to be for others...NAM and GFS have some differences in evolution that would impact the NYC/CT and DC->PHL areas. KBGM expecting 18:1 ratios on average here. Of note, 0Z GFS continues to look very promising for CNY & particularly WNY for Monday event...taken verbatim, BGM to ALB are a mix or RN to SN but everyone else stays white. It's only 96 hours out and we'd be microanalyzing the Mon event were it not for tomorrow's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0Z GFS looks like it holds serve...qpf similar to NAM, particularly in the distribution pattern. Biggest drama appears to be for others...NAM and GFS have some differences in evolution that would impact the NYC/CT and DC->PHL areas. KBGM expecting 18:1 ratios on average here. Of note, 0Z GFS continues to look very promising for CNY & particularly WNY for Monday event...taken verbatim, BGM to ALB are a mix or RN to SN but everyone else stays white. It's only 96 hours out and we'd be microanalyzing the Mon event were it not for tomorrow's system. Canadian looks similar also..Lets see if euro caves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Canadian looks similar also..Lets see if euro caves in.Razor thin margin for us to stay SN...and 2-3 days of modelolegy in front of us...I continue to favor more progressive systems based on pattern thusfar this winter, so hopefully this next system rounds the trough base at a low enough latitude and moves along smartly.Also...Op GFS wants to relax the pattn for a few days mid month but goes back in the tank after that, with more of the same...PNA and eastern trough. Looks fairly relentless to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm up to 4",here is the latest AFD out of BUF. WILL UPGRADE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNINGFOR PROLONGED SNOW...DEVELOPING STRONGER WIND WITH BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATER TODAY ANDTONIGHT.THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM MOVINGEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND EASTERGREAT LAKES. THERE HAVE BEEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES PRODUCING HIGHERSNOWFALL AND STRONGER RADAR RETURNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.A CLOSE LOOK OT SOME OF THE MORE ESOTERIC MODEL PARAMETERS INDICATESTHAT THIS WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ITSPERSISTENT BANDS OF HEAVIER AND LONG SWATH OF COVERAGE...ACONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (CSI) EVENT. A CROSS SECTION FROMLAKE ONTARIO TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TIMEPERIOD OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY FROM NORTHERN PATO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...ELEVATED FROM ABOUT 850MB TO 500MB...COINCIDENT WITH A SOUTH TO NORTH SLANTED BAND OF VERTICALMOTION (OMEGA). THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT IS WITHIN A DEEP MOISTLAYER...NEARLY SATURATED AND ISOTHERMAL TO A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSERATE...AND JUST NORTH OF A STRENGTHENING 160KT+ JET COREANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAKAND THE ENHANCED COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE JUST NORTH OF THE BANDOF STEADY SNOW. ONE LAST ADDITIONAL THING TO CONSIDER...THE COLD AIRACROSS THE STILL OPEN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIOWILL PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE AND THUS POTENTIAL ENERGY TO SUPPLYTHE MID LEVEL SNOW MACHINE WITH ADDITIONAL FUEL...THUS A BAND OFHIGHER SNOW AMOUNT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THEHIGHER TERRAIN INLAND. THE HEAVIER SNOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO OCCURFROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HEAVIER AND MORESTEADY SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THEASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA LATER IN THE DAY THROUGHTHE EVENING. SNOWY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THENIGHT WITH THE TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AND WINDS INCREASING...CREATING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER STORM PASSES TO OURSOUTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPHRANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIOSHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ADDED DIFFICULTY OFBLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. INADDITION...THE INCREASING WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING COLDADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS DEPRESSED INTO THE LOWTEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THATCOULD DIP AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO AND AS MUCH AS 25 BELOW ZEROACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND CHILLS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITHWIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND -15 TO -20OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WSW UP FOR ALL OF WNY ALSO FOR WIDESPREAD 8-12"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Picked up 3" overnight... thinking it was lake enhanced? Judging by the look of the radar? Brrrrrr it's cold out i know that 7* out. Very very fine flakes coming down now. Was surprised when i got up to see the fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Hill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SLED!! Yes, welcome to our forum brother. So nice to have another one join the American crew. Me and Devin migrated over here from WIVB Blog 3 years ago. You'll see that this forum blows away that one in terms of what you can learn. Also no trolls (C from P) There are some incredible Mets here that post quite often. You don't just have to post here, you'll find many of us browsing on the great lakes sub forum or even Massachusetts area that has a very dedicated group of well versed Mets. Welcome aboard! Post a video of the luge you make every year, some of the regulars here have got to see that thing. Thanks BuffaloWeather. I will post a clip or two if that's allowed here. I must say though, I feel a certain loyalty to wivb since they're the ones that made my luge go viral. Kinda feel like I'm cheating. lol But a trolless forum does sound nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Hill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Welcome to the forums John!!!! Great to have another Orchard Park poster on these forums. Youll definitley like it better on here than WIVB! Id still like to come see the luge sometime soon John! Lol. I hope you do stop by this year Devin. It would be nice to meet you in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Hill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 For those that don't know me, I build a luge in my yard every year. It made national news 5 years ago. Since then, it's gotten much bigger. This year should out do any other. As soon as construction is done, I'll post a video of it. Here is one of my favorite clips from 3 years ago. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_hti_6q02A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Picked up 3" overnight... thinking it was lake enhanced? Judging by the look of the radar? Brrrrrr it's cold out i know that 7* out. Very very fine flakes coming down now. Was surprised when i got up to see the fresh snow. That's a great start.. Only a little over 1" here. You may do a little better than me on this one. Good luck and keep us posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pretty uniform 3-5" across the region so far. Only exception is Rochester area, which looks to be cashing in on lake enhancement. NOUS41 KBUF 021429PNSBUFNYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-030229-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY929 AM EST THU JAN 02 2014**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...4 SW WEST ALMOND 4.8 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 E WHITESVILLE 2.4 729 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER1 S WELLSVILLE 2.3 500 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVERW WELLSVILLE 2.2 430 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...SE WEST VALLEY 5.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS5 N ALLEGANY 3.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 ENE RANDOLPH 3.0 730 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 NE OLEAN 2.1 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 WSW OLEAN 2.0 730 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER...CAYUGA COUNTY...8 SSE AUBURN 1.9 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...4 SSW RIPLEY 5.5 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 S DUNKIRK 3.2 1200 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER4 ENE JAMESTOWN 2.7 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER3 SSE FREWSBURG 1.8 630 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...ERIE COUNTY...2 W WEST SENECA 4.5 730 AM 1/02 COCORAHS3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 4.1 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS2 S WALES 4.0 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVERESE KENMORE 4.0 540 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 N ORCHARD PARK 4.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS2 NE BOSTON 4.0 630 AM 1/02 COCORAHS3 N BUFFALO 3.8 600 AM 1/02 SOCIAL MEDIA1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE 3.7 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 3.7 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS4 SSE BUFFALO 3.7 645 AM 1/02 COCORAHSBUFFALO 3.7 700 AM 1/02 NWS OFFICE3 WSW ELMA 3.6 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 W LAKE VIEW 3.6 830 AM 1/02 COCORAHS2 SE GLENWOOD 3.5 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 N CLARENCE CENTER 3.4 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 WNW EAST AMHERST 3.3 740 AM 1/02 COCORAHSENE EAST AURORA 3.1 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS4 N BUFFALO 3.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS2 SSW BLASDELL 3.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHSWSW HAMBURG 3.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS5 NNE AMHERST 2.7 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...GENESEE COUNTY...5 S BATAVIA 4.5 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS20 PAVILION 4.4 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER2 NE STAFFORD 3.7 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...HIGHMARKET 1.2 424 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...AVON 3.9 744 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER4 WSW DANSVILLE 3.3 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...MONROE COUNTY...GREECE 9.0 700 AM 1/02 TRAINED SPOTTER5 WNW ROCHESTER 8.8 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS6 ESE ROCHESTER 6.0 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHSROCHESTER INTL ARPT 3.7 700 AM 1/02 ASOS...NIAGARA COUNTY...3 NE YOUNGSTOWN 4.5 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER1 NE LOCKPORT 4.2 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS3 ENE LOCKPORT 4.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS2 NE NORTH TONAWANDA 3.5 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS6 E NIAGARA FALLS 2.7 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 2.0 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 NE PENDLETON 1.8 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...ONTARIO COUNTY...3 W GENEVA 2.1 800 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVERHONEOYE 2.0 837 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER...OSWEGO COUNTY...W FULTON 7.0 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS2 SSE PALERMO 6.8 600 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER7 NNE PHOENIX 6.8 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHSSE MINETTO 5.9 800 AM 1/02 COCORAHS5 ESE OSWEGO 1.5 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...2 SW WALWORTH 5.1 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS3 ESE MACEDON 2.6 708 AM 1/02 COCORAHS1 E NEWARK 2.1 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER...WYOMING COUNTY...6 SW WARSAW 3.0 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER3 N SILVER SPRINGS 2.0 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pretty uniform 3-5" across the region so far. Only exception is Rochester area, which looks to be cashing in on lake enhancement. Definitely playing a big role today with solid NE flow below 925 mb, decent moisture and cold low-level temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 For those that don't know me, I build a luge in my yard every year. It made national news 5 years ago. Since then, it's gotten much bigger. This year should out do any other. As soon as construction is done, I'll post a video of it. Here is one of my favorite clips from 3 years ago. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_hti_6q02A Thanks for the posts sled nice to have you aboard! Your luge video would go much more viral here than on WIVB Tbh. Probably since C from P makes up 70% of that blog with his various names. Me and Devin will have to stop by sometime to go on the luge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Definitely some lake enhancement going on here in Webster (East side). Measured almost 10" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Definitely some lake enhancement going on here in Webster (East side). Measured almost 10" here so far. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for the posts sled nice to have you aboard! Your luge video would go much more viral here than on WIVB Tbh. Probably since C from P makes up 70% of that blog with his various names. Me and Devin will have to stop by sometime to go on the luge! Me and C from P will also pay a visit hahahahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone know why weatherundergrounds Euro isn't loading properly since the new year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I had 3" as of 7am just N of SYR..the KBUF snowfall map looks better than KBGM up this way...6-8" in northern Onondaga looks too low. 10-14" probably closer to what will verify based on eyeballing radar. We've prob had another 2-3" since i measured at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.