swva Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 7.5" so far and moderate snow still falling... Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Didn't get nothing from the LES off of Lake Ontario... don't think it really got cranked up like was predicted. Saying 8-10 with the storm coming in tomorrow for my area so that is another I'll believe it when I see it kinda things haha. The lake snow I knew was gonna be just a touch to the north of me so wasn't expecting anything out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW...0Z GFS holds serve early next week with an unphased system that trucks across PA and to the NE. If that materialized, probably would stay snow in NY, snow to mix/rn in PA. Advisory amounts of snow, not a blockbuster. Gets chilly afterwards. With no blocking, the Euro solution looks iffy...much like the incoming storm, which it overamped. Merry New Year to the forum! Trying to stay optimistic on the Monday system. We're putting together a nice snowpack now. I don't really care if we get much more Monday I just don't want the heartbreak of 50 and raining again like we had 10 days ago. Happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Didn't get nothing from the LES off of Lake Ontario... don't think it really got cranked up like was predicted. Saying 8-10 with the storm coming in tomorrow for my area so that is another I'll believe it when I see it kinda things haha. The lake snow I knew was gonna be just a touch to the north of me so wasn't expecting anything out of that. I thought the LES last night would be further south than it ended up. I agree that it really never got cranking like they predicted. I did okay in Altmar with about 10". Probably another 4-8" with the upcoming storm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Another foot plus in southern Erie and on the tug. Seasonal totals really adding up in these areas.... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY908 AM EST WED JAN 01 2014**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...ALFRED 1.0 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...1 ENE RANDOLPH 4.5 730 AM 1/01 COCORAHS5 N ALLEGANY 2.0 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...4 SSW RIPLEY 11.5 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS1 S DUNKIRK 8.0 1200 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER4 ENE JAMESTOWN 2.4 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER3 SSE FREWSBURG 0.7 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...ERIE COUNTY...1 W COLDEN 14.6 730 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER2 SE GLENWOOD 12.0 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS2 NE BOSTON 8.0 830 AM 1/01 COCORAHS2 S WALES 6.0 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVERWSW HAMBURG 3.8 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 2.6 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS3 WSW ELMA 2.4 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS2 SSW BLASDELL 2.0 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHSBUFFALO 1.4 700 AM 1/01 NWS OFFICE3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 1.4 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHSESE KENMORE 1.4 640 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...3 S THERESA 2.4 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...HIGHMARKET 13.5 250 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER1 SSW GLENFIELD 13.0 600 AM 1/01 COCORAHSLOWVILLE 4.5 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER6 N CROGHAN 1.3 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...4 WSW DANSVILLE 2.3 600 AM 1/01 COCORAHS1 ENE DANSVILLE 0.6 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...NIAGARA COUNTY...3 NE YOUNGSTOWN 3.5 800 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER1 NE LOCKPORT 2.5 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 1.5 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS6 E NIAGARA FALLS 0.9 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER...OSWEGO COUNTY...SE MINETTO 2.7 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHSW FULTON 0.8 720 AM 1/01 COCORAHS...WYOMING COUNTY...WARSAW 7.5 704 AM 1/01 TRAINED SPOTTER6 SW WARSAW 6.5 745 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER3 N SILVER SPRINGS 2.4 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I thought the LES last night would be further south than it ended up. I agree that it really never got cranking like they predicted. I did okay in Altmar with about 10". Probably another 4-8" with the upcoming storm up here. You know you're in a prime lake effect belt when 10" is just "ok" You do much snowmobiling/snowshoeing up there? Conditions must be great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LES shifted south to southern part of Oswego County... coming down moderately with big flakes picked up a couple inches in the last couple hours or so. It's been on and off snowing it will let up then pick back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Another foot plus in southern Erie and on the tug. Seasonal totals really adding up in these areas.... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 908 AM EST WED JAN 01 2014 **********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... ALFRED 1.0 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... 1 ENE RANDOLPH 4.5 730 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 5 N ALLEGANY 2.0 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 4 SSW RIPLEY 11.5 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 1 S DUNKIRK 8.0 1200 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 4 ENE JAMESTOWN 2.4 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 SSE FREWSBURG 0.7 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...ERIE COUNTY... 1 W COLDEN 14.6 730 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 2 SE GLENWOOD 12.0 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 2 NE BOSTON 8.0 830 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 2 S WALES 6.0 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER WSW HAMBURG 3.8 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 2.6 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 3 WSW ELMA 2.4 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 2 SSW BLASDELL 2.0 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS BUFFALO 1.4 700 AM 1/01 NWS OFFICE 3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 1.4 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ESE KENMORE 1.4 640 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... 3 S THERESA 2.4 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...LEWIS COUNTY... HIGHMARKET 13.5 250 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 1 SSW GLENFIELD 13.0 600 AM 1/01 COCORAHS LOWVILLE 4.5 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 6 N CROGHAN 1.3 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... 4 WSW DANSVILLE 2.3 600 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 1 ENE DANSVILLE 0.6 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...NIAGARA COUNTY... 3 NE YOUNGSTOWN 3.5 800 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 1 NE LOCKPORT 2.5 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 1.5 700 AM 1/01 COCORAHS 6 E NIAGARA FALLS 0.9 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... SE MINETTO 2.7 800 AM 1/01 COCORAHS W FULTON 0.8 720 AM 1/01 COCORAHS ...WYOMING COUNTY... WARSAW 7.5 704 AM 1/01 TRAINED SPOTTER 6 SW WARSAW 6.5 745 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 N SILVER SPRINGS 2.4 700 AM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER Seriously Colden has to be on pace to break its all time snow record. I have some friends that have lived there for 20 years say this is by far the most snow they've seen this early in the season. I think the Cocorahs station in Colden is over 122 inches on the year already. Boston is over 105 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Seriously Colden has to be on pace to break its all time snow record. I have some friends that have lived there for 20 years say this is by far the most snow they've seen this early in the season. I think the Cocorahs station in Colden is over 122 inches on the year already. Boston is over 105 inches. I wonder what they're snowfall record is. It could be about 300". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still feel comfortable with my 4-8" call from a few days ago...I'm sticking with that for now. CNY and ENY will probably do a bit better...more like 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd have to check but I'd venture that Colden had a better November/December combo in 2000. BUF had it's November/December combo record that year with 96". I'd guess that Colden record would also be 1976-1977....but there's no way to really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still feel comfortable with my 4-8" call from a few days ago...I'm sticking with that for now. CNY and ENY will probably do a bit better...more like 6-10". I wonder what they're snowfall record is. It could be about 300". Yeah it probably is close to 300. Haha. What is your thinking on the Lake effect next week, the Euro was still showing it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah it probably is close to 300. Haha. What is your thinking on the Lake effect next week, the Euro was still showing it last night. It's a complicated set-up but it's the best I've felt about major LES for the metro area this season. There's potential for us to get a synoptic snowstorm followed by SW flow LES...which is rare. The PV to the west is so dominant that even if we get a low to ride the Apps...we still get favorable LES conditions in it's wake. BUF finished with 28.5" on the month...so we're still a couple inches above average given the slightly above average November, too. That is the snowiest month since February 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's a complicated set-up but it's the best I've felt about major LES for the metro area this season. There's potential for us to get a synoptic snowstorm followed by SW flow LES...which is rare. The PV to the west is so dominant that even if we get a low to ride the Apps...we still get favorable LES conditions in it's wake. BUF finished with 28.5" on the month...so we're still a couple inches above average given the slightly above average November, too. That is the snowiest month since February 2011. Nizol is going for 12-18" across the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That map looks aggressive for snowfall amounts... we'd all take it of course. 12Z NAM puts out a fairly uniform amt of qpf across NY...~0.65" for BUF/ROC/BGM/SYR...more like 0.75" for ALB. This is roughly back to what that model was outputting before last night's 0Z run. We can all figure out ratios and permutations from these Nos...6-10" maybe 12" in jackpot spots. Finally some LES flurries here from the decaying Oswego county band. Crumbs. Edit: 12Z GFS puts out similar qpf distribution as NAM, just knock off about 0.1" from the NAM #s across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You know you're in a prime lake effect belt when 10" is just "ok" You do much snowmobiling/snowshoeing up there? Conditions must be great right now. Yeah, used to own property in Redfield where we would wake up to 24" and not blink an eye. Incredible seeing 4-5"/hour rates. Not a snowmobiler but snowshoeing is great. I broke my leg back in October so it is limiting my outdoor activities this winter. But I have been doing a little sledding and snow man making with my kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Binghamton pulled trigger. WSW's for whole region. 6 to 12 area-wide. Seems reasonable. Read Euro has two cutters modeled. Hope to god not. Need to snowmobile without having to freaking trailer all the time. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah I saw that as well. It's for next weeks system right? That's the system that crosses here before the lake effect set-up for the metro hits. This is an epic pattern that were following here. I just hope the lake is completely open which it should be if winds align well in 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's my first guess map for the upcoming snow event. This storm will likely consist of two different parts. The first will be a band of isentropically forced snowfall stretching from WNY to central New England. This band will slowly move northward during the day Thursday as some drier air is advected from the south over the isentropic surface. This area of lifting will occur generally within the dendritic snow growth zone. Initially however, the greatest lift will be at around 800 mb where the temperatures will be slightly warmer than -12C. Otherwise, with relatively light winds and dendrites favored through a good portion of the event, snow ratios will be higher than average. The favorable conditions for dendritic snow growth will also enhance snowfall rates. As the 500 mb trough reaches the mid-Atlantic, a surface low will begin to deepen south of New England. This will be responsible for the second portion of the snowfall, mainly for the ENY region and points south and east. Most of the best mesoscale banding potential will be over southern New England. The large circulation of the low pressure system will transport some moisture from the Atlantic to New England and the Hudson Valley region. This will result in a few more inches in places, generally more farther to the southeast. It's still somewhat uncertain to me how far north the initial band of isentropic ascent will go and how quickly. I'm also uncertain as to how far northwest the mesoscale lift from the coastal system will extend. Otherwise, it looks like a moderate to significant event for most of upstate NY and an especially cold one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Seriously Colden has to be on pace to break its all time snow record. I have some friends that have lived there for 20 years say this is by far the most snow they've seen this early in the season. I think the Cocorahs station in Colden is over 122 inches on the year already. Boston is over 105 inches. They certainly have gotten buried so far this season, but if things stay on course in regards to temperatures, it will take one hell of a synoptic season to take them over the top because Lake Erie is going to freeze up in a hurry. That said, we've got a solid three months of weather left! We're only 11 days into the official winter season, so they certainly have a shot. On the other hand though, the latest 10 day GFS certainly shows a major pattern change by 240 hours.. For now, I'm going to live in the glory of the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NWS Buffalo - increased total accumulations in Oswego County to 6-11" over the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah I saw that as well. It's for next weeks system right? That's the system that crosses here before the lake effect set-up for the metro hits. This is an epic pattern that were following here. I just hope the lake is completely open which it should be if winds align well in 5-6 days.Yeh also latest AFD now mentions the potential. THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH 12Z RUNS OF GFS/GGEM/ECMWF COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT. ALL THREE NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS STILL THE WEAKEST AND COLDEST...WITH THE ECMWF STRONGEST AND WARM ENOUGH O CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EAST OF ROCHESTER. TAKING A CONSENSUS...EXPECT SNOW IS THE MORE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SNOW FOR IT STILL COMING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS...WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FUTURE SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THIS...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COULD AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND WHATEVER LOW DOES DEVELOP. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Snow started here about an hour ago. Light snow, but decent flake size for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I posted this over in the Central PA forum, but since the map I made includes southern Ontario, upstate NY, and New England, here's my guess for the event, fwiw. I am thinking more than a bit of enhancement off of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie in Niagara, Hamilton, Cleveland, Erie. maybe i'm not as drastic as TWC, but at least here's my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I posted this over in the Central PA forum, but since the map I made includes southern Ontario, upstate NY, and New England, here's my guess for the event, fwiw. I am thinking more than a bit of enhancement off of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie in Niagara, Hamilton, Cleveland, Erie. maybe i'm not as drastic as TWC, but at least here's my view. Halifax jackpot! Thanks for posting over here. Looks consistent with the NWS forecast for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's my first guess map for the upcoming snow event. Only area I would question is the area from Rochester west along the L. Ontario shoreline. Thinking some lake enhancement might kick in there and put those areas in the 7-12" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Halifax jackpot! Thanks for posting over here. Looks consistent with the NWS forecast for WNY. no problem. besides, the models seem to have been rather consistent for most of upstate NY and the I-90 Corridor to Boston. Halifax/Yarmouth/eastern Cape Breton I have to admit is a bit of a gamble. But most of the solutions seemed to be working over there. I know I had to tighten the gradient over in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Only area I would question is the area from Rochester west along the L. Ontario shoreline. Thinking some lake enhancement might kick in there and put those areas in the 7-12" range. Yeah, I was thinking about that. The Euro does have a bit of a local max in QPF for that area. There will be some dry air working in behind that isentropic band once the coastal low gets going so we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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