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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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Any NWS reports? 

 

'Around' the town of Lewis, reports of 'around' 12" of snow usually turn out to be around 8" officially, and 8" is usually under 6", which wouldn't even merit consideration for a one hour school delay without whiteout conditions. 

 

Years ago a buddy and I concocted this elaborate formula to post the '24 hour snowfall' at the ski area we worked at- it was confusing enough to keep us out of trouble with management, honest enough to placate us, and funny enough to amuse anyone who'd bother to read it- about twelve different mathematical terms describing the mountains 'official' report x (.5) :whistle:

 

Nothing reported here; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakepage.php

Sounds like an interesting formula to see!

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST

TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...AND SOUTHERN

ERIE COUNTIES. MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE

CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

About an inch on the ground here so far. Came out of the gym to it, and to be honest I was shocked. Did not expect this at all... Pleasantly surprised.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS

HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS.

LOWERING TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT MAY FREEZE SLUSH ON ANY

UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

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**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
ALFRED 0.5 721 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 E WHITESVILLE 0.4 721 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
RUSHFORD 0.3 630 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 S WELLSVILLE 0.2 500 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 5.2 500 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE 0.8 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE 0.5 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
4 SSW RIPLEY 6.0 630 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
CASSADAGA 3.0 900 PM 11/11 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S DUNKIRK 2.0 1200 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ERIE COUNTY...
1 W COLDEN 4.2 730 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 N ORCHARD PARK 3.7 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
1 N HAMBURG 3.1 700 AM 11/12 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST AURORA 2.7 1051 PM 11/11 COCORAHS
3 WSW ELMA 2.4 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
BOSTON 2.0 800 PM 11/11 PUBLIC
ORCHARD PARK 2.0 918 PM 11/11 NWS EMPLOYEE
4 NW ALDEN 1.7 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
2 SSW BLASDELL 1.0 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
2 W WEST SENECA 0.9 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
4 SSE BUFFALO 0.8 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 0.7 700 AM 11/12 ASOS
3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 0.7 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 0.6 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
3 ESE TONAWANDA 0.4 645 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
ESE KENMORE 0.4 535 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
NORTH BUFFALO 0.3 1136 PM 11/11 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NW KENMORE 0.2 600 AM 11/12 COCORAHS

...GENESEE COUNTY...
2 NE STAFFORD 2.5 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
PAVILION 2.0 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
STAFFORD 2.0 916 PM 11/11 NWS EMPLOYEE

...LEWIS COUNTY...
1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 2.0 500 AM 11/12 COCORAHS

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
1 ENE DANSVILLE 0.6 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS

...MONROE COUNTY...
ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 1.2 700 AM 11/12 ASOS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
6 E NIAGARA FALLS 0.1 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 NE YOUNGSTOWN T 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ONTARIO COUNTY...
3 W GENEVA 0.1 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
5 ESE OSWEGO 0.4 600 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
4 SSE LACONA 0.3 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
1 NE PULASKI 0.1 700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS
FULTON T 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

...WAYNE COUNTY...
3 ESE MACEDON 0.1 703 AM 11/12 COCORAHS

...WYOMING COUNTY...
7 SW ATTICA 5.0 600 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 W ORANGEVILLE CENT 2.0 1058 PM 11/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 N SILVER SPRINGS 0.8 700 AM 11/12 CO-OP OBSERVER

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BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND

RAPIDLY INCREASE. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD

GENERAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTHEAST OF

LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. 50-60 KNOTS OF WIND ALOFT REMAIN BEHIND THE

COLD FRONT JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP...AND MODERATE COLD AIR

ADVECTION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL

SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DAMAGING

GUSTS NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.

IN ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DEVELOPING

TROPOPAUSE FOLD AND INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE MID

LEVELS WITH THIS INTENSE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP

LAYER INSTABILITY WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES DOWNWARD MIXING POTENTIAL.

WITH SUCH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM...WE WILL

ALSO NEED TO MONITOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STING

JET. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE POST FRONTAL

ENVIRONMENT MAY BE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN 60 MPH.

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I think they will probably pop lake effect snow advisories for the South Shore of Lake Ontario (at least wayne to Oswego...and likely the whole shore) because this will be the first real snow fall of the year and it certainly looks to be quite wintery/windy and unseasonably cold Sat night into Sunday.  The still quite warm lakes are also a wild card even though synoptic moisture is lacking. 

 

We're one ingredient away from a real nice dump, such a shame.

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Hi all...been in semi retirement from online weather but I still faithfully do cocorahs reporting.


 


Still 5-6 days out but tonight's 12/22 00Z GFS looks much more like the 12/21 12Z EC run of today...would be at least a close call for a bit of a snowstorm Wed/Thurs next week from roughly I-81 and east (BGM - ALB)...taken verbatim.  Looks like a significant change towards the EC idea (though still typical of GooFuS performance apparently), as GFS was crushing this system out to nearly Bermuda a couple days ago. 


 


With the GFS, as Michael Corleone said in one of the few memorable lines in Godfather III (a very mediocre movie)...Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in again...


 


Enjoy the LES spray, probably our better shot of measurable snow.  Certainly more probable.

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