Buffalo Bumble Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Quick but intense burst of snow here this morning. Dropped about 2.5 inches in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems to be an improved Euro run for ENY, at least based on the text output. It has 0.56" QPF for ALB and gets 2 m temperatures down to -27C Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Note from this afternoon's KBUF AFD regarding the Thurs #weaksauce system: ONE NOTE ON SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOW TEENS DURING THE SNOWFALL. ONE MAY THINK THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...BUT THIS JUST IS NOT THE CASE. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOWFLAKES DETERMINES SNOW TO WATER RATIO...NOT SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS CASE WITH THE SNOW BEING FORCED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS...SNOWFLAKES ARE LIKELY TO BE SMALL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 1. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL WAIT UNTIL SEVERAL MODEL RUNS ARE STRUNG TOGETHER WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL FORM THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ACROSS NUNAVUT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FURTHER MODEL CHANGES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE UNTIL THESE SYSTEMS ARE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This system today seems to be over performing here...in a relative sense. Around one inch now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Near whiteout conditions at Autumn Lake in Altmar right now.. 2 inches in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This system today seems to be over performing here...in a relative sense. Around one inch now... Yeah a bit of a surprise here as well. There are also a few heavier squalls approaching from the west with the less stable low-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Note from this afternoon's KBUF AFD regarding the Thurs #weaksauce system: ONE NOTE ON SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOW TEENS DURING THE SNOWFALL. ONE MAY THINK THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...BUT THIS JUST IS NOT THE CASE. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOWFLAKES DETERMINES SNOW TO WATER RATIO...NOT SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS CASE WITH THE SNOW BEING FORCED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS...SNOWFLAKES ARE LIKELY TO BE SMALL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 1. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM WE WILL WAIT UNTIL SEVERAL MODEL RUNS ARE STRUNG TOGETHER WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL FORM THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ACROSS NUNAVUT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FURTHER MODEL CHANGES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE UNTIL THESE SYSTEMS ARE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. ehh...it's cold aloft too. They're right that ratios aren't dictated by surface temperatures, but that becomes more evident when there's a warm nose from isentropic lift at 850 or 700mb which causes the lift to be below the effective SGZ. Ideal SGZ is located in the lower part of the sounding as modeled, near the same level as the isentropic lift. That last synoptic storm that gave BUF about 7" had a very warm nose at 850, I don't think this one does given the 850 low should track through PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro and the GFS both show monster LES in about 7 days with that arctic surge. Way out there, but that's as good of a set-up as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ehh...it's cold aloft too. They're right that ratios aren't dictated by surface temperatures, but that becomes more evident when there's a warm nose from isentropic lift at 850 or 700mb which causes the lift to be below the effective SGZ. Ideal SGZ is located in the lower part of the sounding as modeled, near the same level as the isentropic lift. That last synoptic storm that gave BUF about 7" had a very warm nose at 850, I don't think this one does given the 850 low should track through PA. Yeah, I'm not sure I follow that logic either. This is a pretty good tool which uses neural networks and a variety of parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and wind to come up with the snow-liquid ratio probabilities. For Buffalo at 12z on Thursday, it has the probability of greater than 15:1 ratios at 78%. http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_northeast.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 3" before the band shifted to the north.. Now the question is will it go right by when it starts drifting south or will it stop for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Long range AFD hinting at that storm euro has been showing for the past several runs..“AFTER THIS…MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE…WHICH STARTS WITH ACOLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THEGFS KEEPS THE CORE OF COLD AIR JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY…HOWEVER THE00Z/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM DIG A SHARP TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES.THIS BOTH SLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY…AND ALLOWS A WAVE OF LOWPRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ON SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OFTHIS LOW REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN…HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNDOES RESULT IN FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOMEWHERE NEAR THENORTHEASTERN STATES. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IS SUNDAY NIGHT…WITHAMOUNTS POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM LIGHT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVERTHIS PLAYS OUT…MORE COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW. THISWILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD START TO NEXT WEEK…WITH MUCH BELOWNORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THELAKES.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro and the GFS both show monster LES in about 7 days with that arctic surge. Way out there, but that's as good of a set-up as possible. You can't just spit out stuff like this without details. Come on now, don't leave me hanging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ehh...it's cold aloft too. They're right that ratios aren't dictated by surface temperatures, but that becomes more evident when there's a warm nose from isentropic lift at 850 or 700mb which causes the lift to be below the effective SGZ. Ideal SGZ is located in the lower part of the sounding as modeled, near the same level as the isentropic lift. That last synoptic storm that gave BUF about 7" had a very warm nose at 850, I don't think this one does given the 850 low should track through PA. Damn man, you just used words I've never seen before... Well done I have some homework to do during the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow, just noticed this. It keeps a band over Metro Buffalo for 24 straight hours. To bad its so far out! At least model agreement within GFS/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS looks pretty decent for all of WNY. 8-10 inches across most of the area, with a hot spot across Wyoming county getting 12 inches. I'm going to be conservative and go 4-6 inches with a few spots hitting 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro and the GFS both show monster LES in about 7 days with that arctic surge. Way out there, but that's as good of a set-up as possible. Expect we'll see ice cover on L. Erie start to expand by this weekend with sub-freezing temps all week and lows in the 5-15 degrees range. As of yesterday, just some limited ice in the far western basin - so hopefully there will still be a good amount of open water to work with next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pleased to finish with 1.8 inches from this minor event today. Looks pretty good now after the 3.5 from the other day. Rebuilding after that mild hell. Yeah a bit of a surprise here as well. There are also a few heavier squalls approaching from the west with the less stable low-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ehh...it's cold aloft too. They're right that ratios aren't dictated by surface temperatures, but that becomes more evident when there's a warm nose from isentropic lift at 850 or 700mb which causes the lift to be below the effective SGZ. Ideal SGZ is located in the lower part of the sounding as modeled, near the same level as the isentropic lift. That last synoptic storm that gave BUF about 7" had a very warm nose at 850, I don't think this one does given the 850 low should track through PA.Hope you are correct...I haven't run BUFKIT to see where the best lift is but its evident there won't be much of a warm nose with this system...at least out this way. I don't see impressive uvv's with this system, so maybe that's what they are concerned about. There's always a fly in the ointment it seems...warm nose, sh*tty UVV's, storm track, no phasing, no cold air, too much cold air, locusts... A 12-13:1 ratio is not unreasonable with this system IMO. That should squeeze out at least 5 or 6 inches for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking ahead to the Monday event, we are straddling the line here in the center of the state. GFS Op takes the SLP just SE of me, keeps me cold enough for all frozen. GEFS a little west but still OK here. Euro is a wound up cutter that runs up by Buffalo and furnaces pretty much everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 That lake Erie band is really cranking. Advisory was upgraded to a warning for 6-12" for southern Erie. You know its snowing at 3" an hour in that band right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That band was cranking through Northern Erie this morning too, in the 45 minutes the band stayed here. I don't recall prior years having such consistent strong lake effect rates like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 00Z NAM bullish for I-88 and I-90 corridor...about 0.80" liquid for SYR & ROC, 1" BGM & ALB, 0.6" BUF. Not looking at BUFKIT, so not sure where best UVV's occur w.r.t SGZ, but for KSYR... 700mb ub/s are -5 to -7.5 with 700mb temps -16C to -18C...during the 12 hr height of storm, which isn't bad. This should produce reasonable dendrites. I don't forsee "sugar snow" with this forecast. Haven't dissected GFS data...undoubtedly it will be sh*ttier. Though it focuses qpf along I-90 from SYR to ALB to BOS and SNE. Probably 0.6" liquid for SYR and gradually more to the east. Lake Ontario band to the north in Oswego and Jefferson counties really burying the cows tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW...0Z GFS holds serve early next week with an unphased system that trucks across PA and to the NE. If that materialized, probably would stay snow in NY, snow to mix/rn in PA. Advisory amounts of snow, not a blockbuster. Gets chilly afterwards. With no blocking, the Euro solution looks iffy...much like the incoming storm, which it overamped. Merry New Year to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hope you are correct...I haven't run BUFKIT to see where the best lift is but its evident there won't be much of a warm nose with this system...at least out this way. I don't see impressive uvv's with this system, so maybe that's what they are concerned about. There's always a fly in the ointment it seems...warm nose, sh*tty UVV's, storm track, no phasing, no cold air, too much cold air, locusts... A 12-13:1 ratio is not unreasonable with this system IMO. That should squeeze out at least 5 or 6 inches for most here. ehh I think the ratios will be higher than that. What may happen is the models are actually overestimating the qpf in the very cold air...so you get 15 or maybe even 20:1 snow but you're precip is 2/3rds of what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just got back from chasing that band around 6 of new snow in Eden and 2-3 in Hamburg, was snowing 1-2.5 inches per hour. Will post a video shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just got back from chasing that band around 6 of new snow in Eden and 2-3 in Hamburg, was snowing 1-2.5 inches per hour. Will post a video shortly. That's hardcore, chasing lake effect on NYE. Wish I had thought of that...Looks like Colden area has been in the heart of that band for a while. Foot plus of fresh powder at KB...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ehh I think the ratios will be higher than that. What may happen is the models are actually overestimating the qpf in the very cold air...so you get 15 or maybe even 20:1 snow but you're precip is 2/3rds of what the models show.Yeah...agree with that. QPF always dicey and NAM probably overdone as usual. So...0.4-0.6" liquid yields 6-10" of snow in general. Not unreasonable. If we can ever get some LES here we might build some snow depth. I am skeptical of the Euro for next week. Isn't there some old model bias that has the GFS outperforming with predominantly northern stream systems, and the Euro tending to 'hang back' too long or over amplify southern systems, esp with a dominant northern jet on average? I know a decade ago those were tendencies. Not sure if those are still valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That's hardcore, chasing lake effect on NYE. Wish I had thought of that...Looks like Colden area has been in the heart of that band for a while. Foot plus of fresh powder at KB...? Lol yeah, I'm married and boring now a days. My partying days are pretty much over. Lake effect snow is my new high..It's much healthier than empty calories in alcohol since I am a fitness nut as well. I am dreading the amount of people my gym is going to have in it starting tomorrow. I was getting used to how quiet it has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6" so far in Altmar.. Have not been in any real intense rates tonight. Earlier today we received 2" in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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