Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Now onto the rest of this week...weather colder than the brass monkey's you know whats and a potential widespread high impact snow storm for late Wed through Thursday (perhaps first half of Friday, too?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some streamers from L Huron came through this morning and dropped a quick inch or 2. Quite the cycle of white/green/white/green here the last couple weeks. At least on the niagara frontier, we built up a nice 8"+ snow pack, it gets wiped, then builds up again. Would be nice to have more staying power, but no complaints with active pattern and lots of snow events. Forecasters must be on edge this morning. Differences between Euro/GFS appear striking for 3 days out from an event. Maybe not much of a difference in impact here in WNY, but I'm sure ENY'ers are rooting big time for the 12Z Euro to hold course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LES looks healthy for Tuesday afternoon - Wednesday morning still on 12z NAM east of Lake Ontario.. I was too far south on Dec. 26th.. Hope I am not too far north this time in Altmar... Euro slams all of NY State Wednesday night - Friday. GFS much drier.. Unbelievable that there are this many differences and we are 2 maybe 3 days out from the snow starting. Its going to be an interesting week. Anybody still posting on here from Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis Counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We'll have to watch the shortwave that dives southward from the pacific northwest to the southern plains between 48 and 72 hrs. The Euro has this feature sharper and in turn the shortwave becomes more amplified and slower, allowing it to phase with another northern stream shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the initial shortwave over the pacific northwest which then remains flatter and more progressive. How strong and also the duration of the coastal low will depend on the evolution and interaction with these shortwaves. Either way though, both models have a moderate amount of QPF over CNY/ENY due to isentropic lift over a very cold airmass. Snow ratios may be quite high as the temperatures in the regions of greatest lift may be less than -10C and potentially even below -20C at the tail end. I would think that the Euro may have a better handle on at least the early evolution of the shortwave due to its superior data assimilation. However, it has also been known to have a slight bias of being too amplified with solutions involving east coast cyclogenesis at medium range lead times. Still a few days out from the aforementioned shortwave getting sampled by the upper air sounding network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm in Oswego County... far southwest corner of the county in Hannibal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS/GEM 12z runs are way south with the Thursday storm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wouldn't take the GFS too seriously when dealing with east coast systems at this time range. GFS/GEM 12z runs are way south with the Thursday storm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestWind Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 holy smokes.. Question. Given that model output, which shows temperatures below -10 in, for example, central Indiana, why is the NWS forecast for Indianapolis calling for temperatures to drop no lower than 8 the entire forecast period? Likewise, Pittsburgh which is nearly as cold on the model output is not predicted to drop below 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Question. Given that model output, which shows temperatures below -10 in, for example, central Indiana, why is the NWS forecast for Indianapolis calling for temperatures to drop no lower than 8 the entire forecast period? Likewise, Pittsburgh which is nearly as cold on the model output is not predicted to drop below 13. Maybe once it has support from the other models,they will adjust it accordingly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wouldn't take the GFS too seriously when dealing with east coast systems at this time range. Euro is well south too. It shouldn't be a total bust for WNY, but looks more like a 1-3 clipper than the WSW now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All models have gone away from the clipper being the primary low and strengthening over our region to more of a quick transition to the coastal storm. This has caused QPF amounts to vastly go down for this region. The coastal low evolves into a monster and gives the big cities a huge snowstorm. I still think we get 3-6 inches out of this, unless models continue this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Through 108 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro Snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thanks for posting that Euro map, I was wondering if central NY was still in the game. Looks good there but we can't have any more big moves south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's some cold! It modifies as it heads east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice maps BuffaloWeather, thanks for posting. Assume you got these from a paid subscription site....? Euro snowfall map looks like 8-12" across WNY, but we know if this transitions quickly to a coastal low you can cut those in half at least. Way out there, but the Euro for next Monday looks like a Hudson Valley runner. If we could only lock that in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice maps BuffaloWeather, thanks for posting. Assume you got these from a paid subscription site....? Euro snowfall map looks like 8-12" across WNY, but we know if this transitions quickly to a coastal low you can cut those in half at least. Way out there, but the Euro for next Monday looks like a Hudson Valley runner. If we could only lock that in.... Yeah it is, but from another poster on the Great Lakes sub forum. The 18Z NAM brings us right back to a pretty large snowstorm across the entire area. Yes, the Euro storm way out there looks like a monster to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah it is, but from another poster on the Great Lakes sub forum. The 18Z NAM brings us right back to a pretty large snowstorm across the entire area. Yes, the Euro storm way out there looks like a monster to. 0.93" QPF at ALB. I'm down lol. As usual, we should have a better idea once the shortwave in question gets better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's the time period for those Euro maps? I'm guessing it includes tomorrow. Either way, still provides some hope of a decent event. I'm not putting any stock into the NAM 60+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's the time period for those Euro maps? I'm guessing it includes tomorrow. Either way, still provides some hope of a decent event. I'm not putting any stock into the NAM 60+ hrs. Most of the precip from this storm falls from 12z Thursday to 12z Friday. The weak clipper/lake-effect event is tomorrow, though some of that could continue into Wednesday night. The QPF total from the Euro for the Thursday/Friday storm is 0.56" for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Unless the Euro scores a coup, which is always possible, beginning to look like the Thurs storm is a moderate one, probably a sub-warning event for this board...broadbrush 4-7" with highest amounts likely from I-90 corridor south to So. Tier NY and into No. tier PA. Won't even comment on Euro for next Monday/Tues as its really out on its own and a week out. Given the lack of any blocking and strong Icelandic vortex we've had in place since November, I'd tend to favor a more progressive solution for this week and next... The real drama is the LES tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday. Looks generally good, in that many will participate esp off of Lake Erie with the wild movement of the bands. Lake Ontario looks good for the usual suspects east of the lake to rake in a foot or more. How far south it drops, meaning...will George and I get in on the action just N of SYR or be given the middle finger by 10-15 miles...remains to be seen. KBUF snowfall map looks really bullish for our area...KBGM playing it close to the vest, mumbling about some accums here, which is probably wise at this point. One thing is certain, going to get damn cold at times. Not as big a fan of that as I used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Count me in as a cold hater. Adult responsibility is cruel to weather lovers. Meanwhile, NAM/RAP/WIVB's whatever model doesn't bring much if any lake enhancement to Metro north now for tomorrow, unlikely the advisory verifies here. Boourns. Quite the disappointing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Count me in as a cold hater. Adult responsibility is cruel to weather lovers. Meanwhile, NAM/RAP/WIVB's whatever model doesn't bring much if any lake enhancement to Metro north now for tomorrow, unlikely the advisory verifies here. Boourns. Quite the disappointing day. Already had a burst of +SN that dropped about an inch and half here,NWS still says the band could organize by morning..By the way here is something that will cheer you up for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Unless the Euro scores a coup, which is always possible, beginning to look like the Thurs storm is a moderate one, probably a sub-warning event for this board...broadbrush 4-7" with highest amounts likely from I-90 corridor south to So. Tier NY and into No. tier PA. Won't even comment on Euro for next Monday/Tues as its really out on its own and a week out. Given the lack of any blocking and strong Icelandic vortex we've had in place since November, I'd tend to favor a more progressive solution for this week and next... The real drama is the LES tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday. Looks generally good, in that many will participate esp off of Lake Erie with the wild movement of the bands. Lake Ontario looks good for the usual suspects east of the lake to rake in a foot or more. How far south it drops, meaning...will George and I get in on the action just N of SYR or be given the middle finger by 10-15 miles...remains to be seen. KBUF snowfall map looks really bullish for our area...KBGM playing it close to the vest, mumbling about some accums here, which is probably wise at this point. One thing is certain, going to get damn cold at times. Not as big a fan of that as I used to be. Agree on storm for Thurs.....LES New Year's Eve will pound Central Oswego Co. into N. Onieda Co.....may graze you Bri. but I think I'm out of the woods....Monday night...BOOM! (Maybe ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Someone in Central Oswego Co. will see totals approaching 2 ft. by Wednesday.. I may be a little too far north again but it is going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice band of LES about to drop down to the metro area,NWS still calling for 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like I'm gonna be just to the south of the LES in Oswego county grrrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ty you may get in on the decent LES...hopefully we do because the wed/thurs system looking like more of a joke as it draws nearer. 00Z Euro caved to GFS idea of a non-amplified nuisance system. Which doesn't inspire confidence in the likelihood of the Euro's big idea for early next week. Actually, it looked like the CMC was indicating a driving rain for everyone east of ROC while GFS looks more like a FROPA on mon/tues. Seems to be the trend this season...as soon as any snow depth is built up, it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like I'm gonna be just to the south of the LES in Oswego county grrrrrrr. I think it will be close for you.. You definitely will get into the action at some point in my opinion. Nice to see some light snow flying this morning. I will enjoy for now and hope for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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