BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Wow, that was quick. It's tough to say how much fell since there's a bit of blowing and drifting going on, but it's probably a stretch to say we even picked up 1" here. It was basically a 30-minute snow squall. Oh well, at least my flight shouldn't have any issues. As always, It's been enjoyable experiencing the rapidly changing wx that is so common in western New York. Since Saturday I've experienced a rainstorm, a little bit of ice, 60-degree temperatures, a 4" lake effect event, near-zero temperatures, and a snow squall. Not bad! Good luck to everyone with "round two" of this LES event later tonight. Have a safe trip back! The freezing process has begun. =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 That freezing process will rapidly accelerate next week, too. There is pretty strong model consensus that we are really heading into the deep freeze in the 6-10 day period. In fact, check out these h85 temps on last night's run of the Canadian model (GGEM): Granted the core of the coldest air is directly a little bit farther east into northern New York and northern Vermont, but I don't believe I have ever seen h85 temps of -34C to -36C progged in the NEUS before. That would potentially rival the historic arctic outbreak of December 1980! The Euro has occasionally been bringing extremely low (-30C) h85 temps into the NEUS late next week as well, so it's not like this is just one random run of the Canadian - it has occasionally been flagged by other models as well. Definitely a frigid signal heading into the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Picked up a dusting of snow here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Just arrived at Autumn Lake between Altmar and Orwell near Redfield. Here until Jan. 4.. Light snow falling, but looks like the current band is positioning just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Just arrived at Autumn Lake between Altmar and Orwell near Redfield. Here until Jan. 4.. Light snow falling, but looks like the current band is positioning just to my north. What's the current snow depth up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Haven't measured yet but probably 1 to 2 ft. The owner of the chalet we are in said there was about 5 feet until the rain and warm temps. Definitely not as much as I thought there was going to be since they got about 7 ft of snow in a few days back a couple weeks ago. Had a heavy burst from the current band but we are stuck on the southern end of the band and in and out of it right now. Probably picked up an inch or so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Received about 2" from LES last night and another 1" this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like a pretty decent period shaping up this week for snowfall. A lake enhanced event Monday Night-Tuesday followed by a clipper, and another long duration event possible Weds Night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like a pretty decent period shaping up this week for snowfall. A lake enhanced event Monday Night-Tuesday followed by a clipper, and another long duration event possible Weds Night into Friday. We also look to go into the icebox with temperatures. This board sure is more quiet than it used to be years ago when I posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Today's event looking better here. BGM now has us around 3-5 inches of snow. Just now seeing wet snow mixed in with the rain. 35F and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We also look to go into the icebox with temperatures. This board sure is more quiet than it used to be years ago when I posted.. Yea I migrated over to the Ohio/Great Lakes section. That's where I post most often now, since there are Cleveland posters and Toronto posters. Close enough to us since this sub-forum is dead. It is weird that its so dead since we have some of the best winters in the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yea I migrated over to the Ohio/Great Lakes section. That's where I post most often now, since there are Cleveland posters and Toronto posters. Close enough to us since this sub-forum is dead. It is weird that its so dead since we have some of the best winters in the entire country. I just popped over to that forum as well. Great discussion over there. Trying to see what the Euro showed for my area Wednesday night - Friday. QPF looks great for your area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro QPF output. All of this is snow. With how cold it's going to be this is easily 15 inches+ if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You guys ready for cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I imagine the Euro pounds eastern NY/Capital region? Euro QPF output. All of this is snow. With how cold it's going to be this is easily 15 inches+ if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I imagine the Euro pounds eastern NY/Capital region? Similar amounts, not quite as high. But we go into the next ice age next weekend into early next week. Lake effect season ends soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'd love to see some snow while I'm home. I've been in Jamestown since the 19th and have yet to see much snow at all. I've only seen 5" or so in my time in NYC. Most of our snow has melted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looking at the NAM and Hi Res NAM looks like the possibility of 0.50" of QPF for the Tuesday clipper/lake enhancement/les east of Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro QPF output. All of this is snow. With how cold it's going to be this is easily 15 inches+ if it comes to fruition. that looks way too high compared to the maps I've looked at for the Thursday snowstorm. Is that precip total over several days? I thought the Euro looked more like in the 0.50-0.75 range here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 that looks way too high compared to the maps I've looked at for the Thursday snowstorm. Is that precip total over several days? I thought the Euro looked more like in the 0.50-0.75 range here. Yeah that's total through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 3.5 inches is the final here for today's event. Quite a few 5''+ amounts higher up in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah that's total through the weekend. ahh cool okay. I'm thinking 2-4" on Tuesday with the lake enhancement and then somewhere in the 4-8" range with the Miller B nor'easter on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ahh cool okay. I'm thinking 2-4" on Tuesday with the lake enhancement and then somewhere in the 4-8" range with the Miller B nor'easter on Thursday. Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well. Went to my parents house in Amherst and they have a ton more snow on the ground and in the piles than here. Hopefully the entire area can cash in this week. What are your thoughts on the Ice Age coming following this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ahh cool okay. I'm thinking 2-4" on Tuesday with the lake enhancement and then somewhere in the 4-8" range with the Miller B nor'easter on Thursday. Looking at the NAM and Hi Res NAM at 00z.. looks like some decent lake enhancement/LES Tuesday/Tuesday night east of Lake Ontario.. wouldn't be surprised if we see some 6"+ amounts up my way in Altmar/Orwell, area. Good 1st call on the Thursday event. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking at the NAM and Hi Res NAM at 00z.. looks like some decent lake enhancement/LES Tuesday/Tuesday night east of Lake Ontario.. wouldn't be surprised if we see some 6"+ amounts up my way in Altmar/Orwell, area. Good 1st call on the Thursday event. Sounds reasonable. yeah my call for was more metro BUF...I'd think the southern Erie/Wyoming/Chautauqua etc. off of Erie and especially east of Ontario would get more on Tuesday and Tuesday night with the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 holy smokes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The new ECMWF blows that low up south of Eastern Long Island to 978 mb at 12Z on the 3rd. ...and 962 by Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The new ECMWF blows that low up south of Eastern Long Island to 978 mb at 12Z on the 3rd. Drops a sub -30c at the end across the ohio valley wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NWS BUF AFD THE AIRMASS IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RESPONSE FROM THELAKES HOWEVER...WITH A COMPLEX LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SCENARIO APPEARING LIKELY. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 10K FEET NEAR THE TIME OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL FADE TUESDAY NIGHT OFF LAKE ERIE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE LAKE... BUT WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OFF LAKE ERIE... LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE MID MORNING BEFORE SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL NOT LAST LONG ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OR IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AREA...BUT THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AND DUMP A QUICK 2-4 OR 3-5 INCH ACCUMULATION. BY AFTERNOON WITH THE CLIPPER PULLING AWAY THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT ON WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE WNW BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE CONSTANT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL LIMIT THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE BAND OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...SO THIS SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS MAY PRODUCE 4-8 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE POSTED FROM SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT ALLEGANY COUNTY OUT...BUT FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BRING SOME DECENT SNOW WELL INLAND AND INTO PORTIONS OF THAT COUNTY. IF CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THAT SCENARIO THEY CAN BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. OFF LAKE ONTARIO... LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DEVELOPING OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION INTO A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT BAND BY LATE AFTERNOON AS ANY CLIPPER SNOW PULLS AWAY. THE BAND SHOULD REMAIN MOBILE AND QUICKLY DROP INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...SNOWFALL RATES COULD BECOME QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG CONVERGENCE...BUT WITH THE BAND MOVING STEADILY SOUTH THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE TUG HILL MAY GET CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WITH AN ADDED BOOST OF UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE EAST OF THE LAKE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THE BAND WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND END UP IN SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND ALSO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAYUGA/WAYNE COUNTIES. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS A DYNAMIC UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS. LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE NAM OMEGA PLUME SIMULATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE...EXTENDING INTO THE FAIR HAVEN/OSWEGO AREAS. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THESE BANDS CAN PRODUCE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES FROM LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. CONVERGENCE IN GENERAL WILL ALSO FOCUS ON THIS BAND OVERNIGHT AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SITS OVER LAKE ONTARIO. UNLIKE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE BAND MAY SIT IN ONE PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL COVER JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH AN ADVISORY FOR A FAST MOVING YET STRONG BAND TUESDAY. HAVE THEN GONE WITH A WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR OSWEGO COUNTY AND TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS AND SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 3.5 inches is the final here for today's event. Quite a few 5''+ amounts higher up in elevation. Same down here. It has the visual consistency of thick oatmeal and is in the process of freezing into a brick. Will be a great base for skiing and snowshoeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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