Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

[Buffalo Bumble]

Had no snow but a few leftover piles when I went to bed. Cannot see the grass now. Were gonna have a white christmas. yay!

 

Same here - about 2" of fluffy snow this morning.  Looks like BUF will score a white Christmas after all.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Same here - about 2" of fluffy snow this morning.  Looks like BUF will score a white Christmas after all.  

 

Awesome!! Looks like the next few clippers will give us some additional snowfall the next few days as well with lake enhancement.

[kulaginman]

Mesolow feature organized a bit farther north than most of the mesoscale models had indicated (though the Euro nailed it). A surprise 3" of fluff here in Orchard Park!

[BuffaloWeather]

Mesolow feature organized a bit farther north than most of the mesoscale models had indicated (though the Euro nailed it). A surprise 3" of fluff here in Orchard Park!

 

2.7 inches here. None of the models had it going above Springville. Nice little surprise.

[kulaginman]

2.7 inches here. None of the models had it going above Springville. Nice little surprise.

 

I looked at the QPF on the Euro last night, and it did hint at a snow event affecting the immediate Buffalo south towns...considerably farther north than the usually-reliable mesoscale models had it. I've never really used the Euro to forecast lake effect before, but I think it performed better than anything else...though the SREFs had 1" snow probabilities up to BUF, so that should have been a flag as well.

 

Either way, really nice out there with mood flakes still falling, temps in the low 20s, and not much wind. Perfect Christmas Eve weather.

[BuffaloWeather]

I looked at the QPF on the Euro last night, and it did hint at a snow event affecting the immediate Buffalo south towns...considerably farther north than the usually-reliable mesoscale models had it. I've never really used the Euro to forecast lake effect before, but I think it performed better than anything else...though the SREFs had 1" snow probabilities up to BUF, so that should have been a flag as well.

 

Either way, really nice out there with mood flakes still falling, temps in the low 20s, and not much wind. Perfect Christmas Eve weather.

 

Another Meso low is about to move in again. Just wondering, how do Meso Lows form? Also why do they predominantly form over the Lakes in comparison to over the land...Or are they just more noticeable over water because they grab moisture from them? Thanks!

[ayuud11]

About 3″ here,it’s been snowing lightly since 1PM.  

[ayuud11]

I looked at the QPF on the Euro last night, and it did hint at a snow event affecting the immediate Buffalo south towns...considerably farther north than the usually-reliable mesoscale models had it. I've never really used the Euro to forecast lake effect before, but I think it performed better than anything else...though the SREFs had 1" snow probabilities up to BUF, so that should have been a flag as well.

 

Either way, really nice out there with mood flakes still falling, temps in the low 20s, and not much wind. Perfect Christmas Eve weather.

12z gfs looks good for LES around new years,what do you think?

[kulaginman]

Another Meso low is about to move in again. Just wondering, how do Meso Lows form? Also why do they predominantly form over the Lakes in comparison to over the land...Or are they just more noticeable over water because they grab moisture from them? Thanks!

 

Mesolows form due to land breeze convergence over the center of concave-shaped lakes when synoptic scale winds are light and lake-induced instability is moderate to extreme. They also tend to occur early in the winter season when the lake temperatures are much warmer than the surrounding land temperatures...OR when a deep arctic airmass is in place and the lake water remains unfrozen. The basic concept is that an area of low pressure forms over the middle of the lake, and in the absence of strong synoptic winds...the cold dense air over the land flows out from all shorelines toward the low pressure center and convergences in the middle of the lake.

 

Dr. Greg Forbes did an excellent study on wintertime mesoscale low pressure systems over the Great Lakes:

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281984%29112%3C0377%3AMVOTGL%3E2.0.CO%3B2

[Syrmax]

Nice little Christmas eve LES gift here N of SYR. About 3" this eve, in addition to the 1" or so last night...rescuing a White Christmas here after the 4+ day meltdown here where we lost everything but the snow piles. Merry Christmas upstaters.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Merry Christmas!!!

[BuffaloWeather]

Merry Christmas!!!

 

Same to you and all here! =)

[kulaginman]

Merry Christmas, everyone! This is my final evening in western New York until sometime this summer, most likely. My flight back to BOS leaves at 4:25 tomorrow afternoon. Hoping to experience an overachieving lake band before I depart...

[BuffaloWeather]

Merry Christmas, everyone! This is my final evening in western New York until sometime this summer, most likely. My flight back to BOS leaves at 4:25 tomorrow afternoon. Hoping to experience an overachieving lake band before I depart...

 

Thanks for the explanation on the Meso Lows! Your insight is greatly appreciated. Hope you have a safe trip home, and don't be a stranger in here.

[kulaginman]

The 4km WSETA from BTV is really liking the potential for heavy snow in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus County from late tomorrow into tomorrow night...especially along a Stockton-Ellicottivlle-Ashford axis. Wouldn't be surprised to see the lake snow advisories bumped up to lake effect snow warnings if this verifies:

 

 

In the metro, it looks like the best chance for heavy snow will be when the band initially develops around midday tomorrow (probably affecting the city in the 10AM-1PM timeframe) then again when winds back around to the SW late tomorrow night into Friday morning. The WRF is actually quite bullish for the latter timeframe...but h85 temps will be on the rise, so the dT/instability will be waning. On the other hand, the dendritic growth layer (DGL) should remain sufficiently moist even as the instability weakens...so I could see this going either way.

 

I just took a peak at the QPF fields on the Euro (which, as you may recall, handled the mesolow scenario better than the other models earlier this week)...and it isn't so quick to bring the LES south through tomorrow evening...generally staying along and north of a Dunkirk-Collins-Springville line through 03z. The SREFs are closer to the Euro than the WSETA...implying that the band settles south into extreme northern Chautauqua, northern Cattaraugus, and southermost Erie Counties by 00z tomorrow evening...but the SREFs then diverge from the Euro and the WSETA, and suggest the band will return northward after 03z tomorrow night.

 

I think it'll be very important to monitor the behavior of upstream snowbands over Lakes Superior and Michigan during the day tomorrow to get a sense of how this will evolve tomorrow night, but I do think that most of the area from the immediate south towns down to ski country should pick up at least a few inches of fresh snow out of this. It's a bigger question makr in the city and points north, and it will ultimately depend on how quickly the band sweeps through tomorrow and what kind of shape the band is in when it returns northward toward Friday morning.

[cny rider]

We have a nice powder bomb going off in central NY right now.

We are certainly outperforming the previously advertised 2 inches.

WWA now up.

[BuffaloWeather]

The 4km WSETA from BTV is really liking the potential for heavy snow in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus County from late tomorrow into tomorrow night...especially along a Stockton-Ellicottivlle-Ashford axis. Wouldn't be surprised to see the lake snow advisories bumped up to lake effect snow warnings if this verifies:

 

LES_26_27_december.PNG

 

In the metro, it looks like the best chance for heavy snow will be when the band initially develops around midday tomorrow (probably affecting the city in the 10AM-1PM timeframe) then again when winds back around to the SW late tomorrow night into Friday morning. The WRF is actually quite bullish for the latter timeframe...but h85 temps will be on the rise, so the dT/instability will be waning. On the other hand, the dendritic growth layer (DGL) should remain sufficiently moist even as the instability weakens...so I could see this going either way.

 

I just took a peak at the QPF fields on the Euro (which, as you may recall, handled the mesolow scenario better than the other models earlier this week)...and it isn't so quick to bring the LES south through tomorrow evening...generally staying along and north of a Dunkirk-Collins-Springville line through 03z. The SREFs are closer to the Euro than the WSETA...implying that the band settles south into extreme northern Chautauqua, northern Cattaraugus, and southermost Erie Counties by 00z tomorrow evening...but the SREFs then diverge from the Euro and the WSETA, and suggest the band will return northward after 03z tomorrow night.

 

I think it'll be very important to monitor the behavior of upstream snowbands over Lakes Superior and Michigan during the day tomorrow to get a sense of how this will evolve tomorrow night, but I do think that most of the area from the immediate south towns down to ski country should pick up at least a few inches of fresh snow out of this. It's a bigger question makr in the city and points north, and it will ultimately depend on how quickly the band sweeps through tomorrow and what kind of shape the band is in when it returns northward toward Friday morning.

 

Pretty epic band setting up across metro before it drops south, some intense snowfall rates in there for sure.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Surprised to wake up and see heavy snow falling...about 3" down already.  Estimate 1"/hr. snowfall rate right now.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Surprised to wake up and see heavy snow falling...about 3" down already.  Estimate 1"/hr. snowfall rate right now.  

 

Wow that's awesome. You have another 2 hours of this most likely before it drifts south, nice surprise 5 inches. Not even an advisory from the NWS.

[ayuud11]

We have 4" by peace bridge,heavy snow i'd say 1.5"/hr

[Buffalo Bumble]

Wow that's awesome. You have another 2 hours of this most likely before it drifts south, nice surprise 5 inches. Not even an advisory from the NWS.

 

Yeah, I'm surprised BUF didn't at least issue a special weather statement to cover the heavy snow on the niagara frontier this morning.  The text discussion update less than an hour ago is also odd.  I just had a period of at least 1.5"/hr snow and already up to 4".  I'm less than 3 miles from the NWS as the crow flies....do they ever just look out the window and see what's going on....?

 

MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING BURSTS

OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH PERIODS OF A HALF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES

AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED VSBYS. THIS WILL ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO

TO THE ENTIRE REGION ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BRING UPSLOPE

ENHANCEMENT TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL...THUS 2 TO 3 INCH MOUNTS

THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT

LATER IN THE DAY.

[BTRWx]

I'm another out-of-towner visiting family in the Buffalo area and I think every system has over-performed while I have been up here starting with the ice event. I'm sure not complaining. ~2.5 inches just today in North Tonawanda

[Buffalo Bumble]

Lousy phone pic, but gives an idea of heavy snow this morning in my area:

 

 

[Buffalo Bumble]

I'm another out-of-towner visiting family in the Buffalo area and I think every system has over-performed while I have been up here starting with the ice event. I'm sure not complaining. ~2.5 inches just today in North Tonawanda

 

Glad you were able to experience some active weather while in the area.  Lake Erie is always good for these little unexpected events throughout the winter.  

[ayuud11]

Yeah, I'm surprised BUF didn't at least issue a special weather statement to cover the heavy snow on the niagara frontier this morning.  The text discussion update less than an hour ago is also odd.  I just had a period of at least 1.5"/hr snow and already up to 4".  I'm less than 3 miles from the NWS as the crow flies....do they ever just look out the window and see what's going on....?

 

MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING BURSTS

OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH PERIODS OF A HALF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES

AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED VSBYS. THIS WILL ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO

TO THE ENTIRE REGION ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BRING UPSLOPE

ENHANCEMENT TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL...THUS 2 TO 3 INCH MOUNTS

THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT

LATER IN THE DAY.

[kulaginman]

Heavy snow just started here in OP, but I'm afraid the entire band might be disrupted by the passage of the mlvl s/w. I could see this thing "skipping over" the south towns after dropping a mere inch or two...then reorganizing farther south when the flow re-aligns out of the WNW later today. The WSETA still clobbers areas along an Arkwright-Persia-Farmersville axis from approximately 4PM today until 1AM tonight...could easily be a foot of snow in some spots down there if this comes to fruition.

 

Starting to think the best opportunity for heavy snow in the south towns may have to wait until the predawn hours tonight when the band starts inching northward again...assuming h85 temps don't warm up too dramatically OR the flow doesn't back around to the SW too quickly.

[BTRWx]

Glad you were able to experience some active weather while in the area.  Lake Erie is always good for these little unexpected events throughout the winter.  

The mid-level winds seem to be blowing right up the long axis of Lake Erie. Couldn't that have been a red flag for some sort of Advisory? Lake Effect development is such an awesome phenomenon. Even in Southeast Virginia the Chesapeake Bay can produce rare snow-bands.

[ayuud11]

Heavy snow just started here in OP, but I'm afraid the entire band might be disrupted by the passage of the mlvl s/w. I could see this thing "skipping over" the south towns after dropping a mere inch or two...then reorganizing farther south when the flow re-aligns out of the WNW later today. The WSETA still clobbers areas along an Arkwright-Persia-Farmersville axis from approximately 4PM today until 1AM tonight...could easily be a foot of snow in some spots down there if this comes to fruition.

 

Starting to think the best opportunity for heavy snow in the south towns may have to wait until the predawn hours tonight when the band starts inching northward again...assuming h85 temps don't warm up too dramatically OR the flow doesn't back around to the SW too quickly.

What about the city? could we see couple more inches again as the band lifts northward?

[BuffaloWeather]

What about the city? could we see couple more inches again as the band lifts northward?

 

Yep the models the last few runs have been keeping it together as it drifts northward. Should be able to cash in few more inches.

[kulaginman]

Wow, that was quick. It's tough to say how much fell since there's a bit of blowing and drifting going on, but it's probably a stretch to say we even picked up 1" here. It was basically a 30-minute snow squall.

 

Oh well, at least my flight shouldn't have any issues. As always, It's been enjoyable experiencing the rapidly changing wx that is so common in western New York. Since Saturday I've experienced a rainstorm, a little bit of ice, 60-degree temperatures, a 4" lake effect event, near-zero temperatures, and a snow squall. Not bad! Good luck to everyone with "round two" of this LES event later tonight.