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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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That northeast wind has really picked up on the Niagara Frontier...gusting to 30 mph at KBUF now. Long as that keeps up, surface temps will likely remain below freezing for the duration of the overnight period.

 

Still 33F at my location in Orchard Park. We'll see if the sub-freezing layer can wedge itself down into the south towns over the next 1-2 hours...

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Looks like about 27K without power in the North Country, about 20K on the Niagara Frontier: https://www1.nationalgridus.com/PowerOutageMap-NY-RES?ng=us

 

Wow, any pics from your area? I might actually be in Amherst this afternoon, but I'm not sure the ice will hold on until then.

 

The frontal boundary is surging north again. Our temperature just rocketed from 36F to 52F in about 20 minutes, and it's still climbing...

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Melting has begun in Snyder. Very drippy in the yard. Power out across the street sue to three foot diameter tree snapping onto backyard lines. No tree damage here, but we were vacuuming water out of the basement at 4 am.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v627/velouria13/crackle.jpg

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v627/velouria13/icy.jpg

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Melting has begun in Snyder. Very drippy in the yard. Power out across the street sue to three foot diameter tree snapping onto backyard lines. No tree damage here, but we were vacuuming water out of the basement at 4 am.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v627/velouria13/crackle.jpg

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v627/velouria13/icy.jpg

 

Thanks for the pictures and welcome to the forums! Yeah you guys were right all along with the possible ice from Buffalo North, my parents had about .25-. of ice in Amherst. Ayudd looks like the GEM was right all along. ^_^

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Thanks for the pictures and welcome to the forums! Yeah you guys were right all along with the possible ice from Buffalo North, my parents had about .25-. of ice in Amherst. Ayudd looks like the GEM was right all along. ^_^

Thanks! I lurk a lot. I should probably post more. :)

 

There are eight power and tree trucks across the street. I can see a three foot tree snapped in half in a backyard over there, but there must be more with all the trucks. We have power, they don't. Normally it's the other way around with these things.

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A very impressive 1-hour swing in temperatures in Albany:

 

12222013_2.jpg

 

Definitely impressive. I noticed some gusty winds at the time though the temperature here (west of the airport but still in the valley) only rose to 40F. The cold air in damming events usually seems to be harder to erode for locations closer to the Helderberg escarpment.

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Definitely impressive. I noticed some gusty winds at the time though the temperature here (west of the airport but still in the valley) only rose to 40F. The cold air in damming events usually seems to be harder to erode for locations closer to the Helderberg escarpment.

And now ALB is back down to 37.. amazing how a northerly breeze can drop the temperature 15 degrees in a half hour. I'm not complaining though as it's keeping our snowpack around a little longer.

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We topped out at 60F here at 1100' on the Orchard Park/Boston line today. I drove from my location to East Aurora then up to Lancaster around noon today and it was 60F here, 46F in East Aurora, and 36F in Lancaster. By the time I left Lancaster the true "cold" front had passed through, and everyone had uniformly mixed out into the low 40s. Very interesting temperature day in Western NY.

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Meso models hinting at a convergence zone setting up across western New York tomorrow...potentially setting up right over the Metro first thing in the morning, then oscillating back and forth between the south towns and ski country for a good part of the day. I think our biggest issue to overcome will be a lack of moisture in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) which could make for inefficient snow growth and potentially even some -FZDZ at times, but if moisture increases in the DGL some spots could squeeze out an inch of snow tomorrow. Obviously that isn't much, but it'd be nice to whiten the ground again in time for Christmas.

 

The more interesting potential might be on Tuesday when the NAM (and other meso models) have occasionally hinted at a mesolow feature taking shape over Lake Erie and bringing locally heavy snowfall to Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. This could be a nice Christmas Eve surprise for some as snow growth should be excellent with a deep moist dendritic growth layer yielding SW ratios of 20:1 or even 30:1. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this turns into a 3-6"/4-7" event for some, but it will be pretty far south.

 

If Buffalo has a prayer of squeezing out a White Christmas, it pretty much has to happen tomorrow.

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Lake Erie up to 36 degrees. Near normal for the day, cannot believe how much the Lake recovered from the rain and the warmup. I'd say it was worth! =)

 

Meh, I would've preferred not coming home in time for the epic thaw. It was much prettier when I was here at Thanksgiving. Hoping we can catch the northern fringe of the mesolow feature here in OP tomorrow morning, and it looks like there could be somewhat better potential for an LES event on Thursday before I pull out of town. If not, it looks like my lucky streak has been broken...

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