Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

[OSUmetstud]

Euro just came in showing snowstorm for north western ny. See oz euro 72 hr totals with 6"+ for niagara,orleans,Monroe, sand even north gene see and Erie! Unbelievable. I hope this trend continues. Ps: last storm Rochester airport amended its totals to 9" after the bogus 4 " report

That's probably ice Dave, not snow.   

[OSUmetstud]

Oh btw, Winter Storm Watch up for Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, and Northern Erie.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

NYZ001>003-010-011-201700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131222T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA
347 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE DOWNING OF LARGE TREES AND
POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...UNTREATED
SURFACES MAY BECOME ICE COVERED...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OR COLDER WILL GREATLY VARY THE IMPACTS OF
THIS EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$

THOMAS

[ayuud11]

Oh btw, Winter Storm Watch up for Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, and Northern Erie.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

347 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

NYZ001>003-010-011-201700-

/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131222T1500Z/

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...

BUFFALO...BATAVIA

347 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE HALF OF

AN INCH.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE DOWNING OF LARGE TREES AND

POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...UNTREATED

SURFACES MAY BECOME ICE COVERED...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY

WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. A

DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OR COLDER WILL GREATLY VARY THE IMPACTS OF

THIS EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE

ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$

THOMAS

 

 

FOR THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND MONROE COUNTY...WE HAVE ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ICE POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE HALF

INCH. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL

LIKELY BUILD A SUBFREEZING LAYER JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND

SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NYS THRUWAY. BELIEVE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD

TIME PICKING UP ON SUCH A SHALLOW LAYER...THOUGH THE GFS WITH

SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL ALL HINT

AT AN ICE POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALLOWING

THE COLD AIR TO BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL MEDIUM AT

BEST FOR THIS EVENT HERE FOR IF THE WARMER 00Z NAM WERE TO

VERIFY...THERE WOULD VERY LITTLE ICE ACCUMULATION. ALSO THE

NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MID 30S LAKE ONTARIO MAY LIMIT THE ICE

ACCUMULATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.

[kulaginman]

Yep, surface temps came in much colder on the Euro last night. Models may just now be catching on to the magnitude of the low level cold with that high anchored across Canada. Below I've posted the 2m (surface) temps on last night's run of the Euro at 3-hour intervals between 00z and 12z Sunday. The solid red line denotes the 32F isotherm, but real ice accumulation would probably occur in areas that are shaded in the darker blue color. Note that for a brief period, even the Buffalo south towns could have some glazing late Saturday night! Enjoy...

 

7PM Saturday

 

10PM Saturday

 

1AM Sunday

 

4AM Sunday

 

7AM Sunday

[vortmax]

What a tough forecast with such close temps. It's interesting to think if the S shore counties would be icing up if we didn't have such a cold spell this month. I'm guessing the lake would normally be a bit warmer this time of year and moderating that arctic air even more than it will.

[Syrmax]

1-3" of rain for CNY and temps surging to near 50 Sunday. White XMas right into the turlet, it appears. I had 12" snow depth yday and its down to about 9" this a.m. Not sure this will survive through Sunday other than patchy coverage. Sort of disappointing but it'll be interesting to see how much rain we squeeze out.

[kulaginman]

So I've posted a lot of model output recently, yet I've been pretty light-lipped about my personal expectations. Given my experience with freezing rain situations in places like BGM and northern New England (where these events tend to happen more often) I've learned that fzra is a very fickle thing to forecast, and such a perfect combination of elements has to come together to produce an ice storm. This combination is rarely achieved in the atmosphere, which is why ice storms (the kind that produce damage) are relatively uncommon in our part of the world.

 

There are several factors which make me skeptical that significant icing is going to take place on the Niagara Frontier (including BUF-ROC):

 

1) Marginal surface temperatures

2) Heavy precipitation rates

3) Several days of >32F temperatures leading up to the event

 

Surface temperatures, even on the colder models like the GFS/ECMWF, are projected to be very marginal. Ice has a very difficult time accumulating when temperatures are near 32F, especially when precipitation rates are heavy and you are not coming out of an extended period of arctic temperatures. Precipitation rates will be heavy tomorrow night, and this event will be occurring at the conclusion of a relatively mild period.

 

Having said that, there was a very damaging ice storm that occurred in parts of MA and southern NH back in December 2008. The 2008 event featured marginal surface temps (31/32F) and very heavy precipitation rates, yet significant ice accumulation of up to 1" still occurred. In the post-event analysis, it was determine that a layer of very cold air (mid 20s) at the 925/950mb layer essentially "chilled" the raindrops as they descended, which allowed for significant ice accrual on elevated objects like tree branches and power lines in spite of the near-freezing surface temps. Having said that, nearly half of the QPF was still lost due to runoff. I haven't examined BUFKIT soundings closely enough to know if such a cold layer will exist just above the surface tomorrow night, but that would be one way in which we could achieve a damaging ice storm on the NIagara Frontier even with 31/32F temps.

 

Ideally, surface temps in the 20s yield the most efficient ice accumulation...and you don't lose nearly as much QPF to runoff when temperatures are that cold. During the first night of the January 1998 event in Massena, I believe they reported a couple hours of fzra with a temperature of 16F! That is incredible considering Mount Washington NH (6288') recorded its all-time January record high temperature during the 1998 event. Crazy inversion.

[tim123]

Gfs and euro still show ice storm from thruway north

[OSUmetstud]

So I've posted a lot of model output recently, yet I've been pretty light-lipped about my personal expectations. Given my experience with freezing rain situations in places like BGM and northern New England (where these events tend to happen more often) I've learned that fzra is a very fickle thing to forecast, and such a perfect combination of elements has to come together to produce an ice storm. This combination is rarely achieved in the atmosphere, which is why ice storms (the kind that produce damage) are relatively uncommon in our part of the world.

 

There are several factors which make me skeptical that significant icing is going to take place on the Niagara Frontier (including BUF-ROC):

 

1) Marginal surface temperatures

2) Heavy precipitation rates

3) Several days of >32F temperatures leading up to the event

 

Surface temperatures, even on the colder models like the GFS/ECMWF, are projected to be very marginal. Ice has a very difficult time accumulating when temperatures are near 32F, especially when precipitation rates are heavy and you are not coming out of an extended period of arctic temperatures. Precipitation rates will be heavy tomorrow night, and this event will be occurring at the conclusion of a relatively mild period.

 

Having said that, there was a very damaging ice storm that occurred in parts of MA and southern NH back in December 2008. The 2008 event featured marginal surface temps (31/32F) and very heavy precipitation rates, yet significant ice accumulation of up to 1" still occurred. In the post-event analysis, it was determine that a layer of very cold air (mid 20s) at the 925/950mb layer essentially "chilled" the raindrops as they descended, which allowed for significant ice accrual on elevated objects like tree branches and power lines in spite of the near-freezing surface temps. Having said that, nearly half of the QPF was still lost due to runoff. I haven't examined BUFKIT soundings closely enough to know if such a cold layer will exist just above the surface tomorrow night, but that would be one way in which we could achieve a damaging ice storm on the NIagara Frontier even with 31/32F temps.

 

Ideally, surface temps in the 20s yield the most efficient ice accumulation...and you don't lose nearly as much QPF to runoff when temperatures are that cold. During the first night of the January 1998 event in Massena, I believe they reported a couple hours of fzra with a temperature of 16F! That is incredible considering Mount Washington NH (6288') recorded its all-time January record high temperature during the 1998 event. Crazy inversion.

The Worcester ice storm was also aided by strong surface advection of dry air from the north-northeast.  Even though the precip was very heavy they never quite saturated at the surface...so that the latent heat release from freezing was kept at bay.  

[OSUmetstud]

12z euro is a bit warmer at the surface than last night...doesn't look quite that icy...still some patches of freezing rain north and east of BUF overnight on Saturday night.  GFS type solutions would still lead to a damaging ice storm for Niagara Falls east.  

[kulaginman]

The QPF with this system is pretty staggering. Widespread 3"+ on the Niagara Frontier per the 18z NAM. Probably the wettest run we've seen yet. There are pockets of 5"+ east of Lake Ontario...

[scottmartin49]

So I've posted a lot of model output recently, yet I've been pretty light-lipped about my personal expectations. Given my experience with freezing rain situations in places like BGM and northern New England (where these events tend to happen more often) I've learned that fzra is a very fickle thing to forecast, and such a perfect combination of elements has to come together to produce an ice storm. This combination is rarely achieved in the atmosphere, which is why ice storms (the kind that produce damage) are relatively uncommon in our part of the world.

 

There are several factors which make me skeptical that significant icing is going to take place on the Niagara Frontier (including BUF-ROC):

 

1) Marginal surface temperatures

2) Heavy precipitation rates

3) Several days of >32F temperatures leading up to the event

 

Surface temperatures, even on the colder models like the GFS/ECMWF, are projected to be very marginal. Ice has a very difficult time accumulating when temperatures are near 32F, especially when precipitation rates are heavy and you are not coming out of an extended period of arctic temperatures. Precipitation rates will be heavy tomorrow night, and this event will be occurring at the conclusion of a relatively mild period.

 

Having said that, there was a very damaging ice storm that occurred in parts of MA and southern NH back in December 2008. The 2008 event featured marginal surface temps (31/32F) and very heavy precipitation rates, yet significant ice accumulation of up to 1" still occurred. In the post-event analysis, it was determine that a layer of very cold air (mid 20s) at the 925/950mb layer essentially "chilled" the raindrops as they descended, which allowed for significant ice accrual on elevated objects like tree branches and power lines in spite of the near-freezing surface temps. Having said that, nearly half of the QPF was still lost due to runoff. I haven't examined BUFKIT soundings closely enough to know if such a cold layer will exist just above the surface tomorrow night, but that would be one way in which we could achieve a damaging ice storm on the NIagara Frontier even with 31/32F temps.

 

Ideally, surface temps in the 20s yield the most efficient ice accumulation...and you don't lose nearly as much QPF to runoff when temperatures are that cold. During the first night of the January 1998 event in Massena, I believe they reported a couple hours of fzra with a temperature of 16F! That is incredible considering Mount Washington NH (6288') recorded its all-time January record high temperature during the 1998 event. Crazy inversion.

 

Excellent analysis in my opinion. With many years experience of these events, you've really nailed the 'on the ground' requirements beyond what current modeling is capable of. Bravo!

[BuffaloWeather]

Our snowpack down here is not going to survive through Sunday, but Lake Erie has stopped its freezing. 3 inches of rain and 4 straight days of 40s+ will hopefully melt whatever ice was forming on the lake. I hope we get another month of Lake Effect Potential. Once Lake Erie freezes the weather is usually boring.

[Leelee]

Central/Eastern basin of Lake Erie was upper 30s as of Tuesday. It's going to be harder with lapse rates, Delta Ts now to get anything like we had last week, but we've got at least a month until Erie freezes to the point of effectively shutting down.

[champy]

53 degrees by 6 AM. Gross.

[heavy_wx]

Looks like we have about four inches of snow left after yesterday and last night's melting. It will be interesting to see if we can get to 60 tomorrow. With most of the snow cover gone by then, latent cooling from snow melt will not be much of a factor. However, there will likely be heavy rainfall with the boundary just to our north and the NAM and the Euro are suggested that there may be some cold air damming in the Hudson Valley, at least initial on Sunday.

[swva]

Looking past the next 2 or 3 spring days.. yuck.. Looks like some LES Tuesday.. and cold shots next week that could be accompanied with some LES.  I do not see any big synoptic systems brewing after this one in the next 7-10 days though.  Any thoughts after this rain storm?

[kulaginman]

Euro not "seeing" the low level cold along the Lake Ontario shoreline. A lot of 33-36F temps showing up where the Euro was depicting 39-46F:

 

Current temps

 

Projected 2m temps at 15z (on the 00z Euro)

 

The low level boundary is progged to drop southward all the way to the state line by 21z this afternoon...so temperatures will be dropping across all of western NY later today. It remains a very tough call in most areas for all the reasons I listed yesterday, but I'm thinking anyone with elevation above 1000' north of the boundary could get smacked pretty good with ice tonight. If I had to pin one spot to have the best chance of significant icing in western NY, I would gamble on the hills of Wyoming County where the extra elevation could allow surface temps to dip closer to 30/31F which makes a big difference compared to 32F in these scenarios.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Forecast for Watertown area looks ominous to say the least:

 

• TodayFreezing rain. High near 30. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
• TonightFreezing rain. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Northeast wind 10 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
• SundayFreezing rain before 5pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. High near 34. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[kulaginman]

 

Forecast for Watertown area looks ominous to say the least:

 

• TodayFreezing rain. High near 30. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
• TonightFreezing rain. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Northeast wind 10 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
• SundayFreezing rain before 5pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. High near 34. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

 

Yeah, this is going to be a major event somewhere in the North Country. One thing that could save areas that were absolutely decimated in '98 from experiencing a repeat this time around: the models are suggesting the cold air may deepen a bit, right along the US/Canada border tonight...potentially changing the precip type from freezing rain to more of a freezing rain/sleet mix. Hopefully it ends up changing to more of a sleet event up that way, which would make this significantly less impactful.

 

Unfortunately, that only looks to be a possibility right along the international border...affecting places like Massena. I don't see how there's any way the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley avoid a major ice storm. There's pretty solid agreement on all models that this could be a huge event right in the city of Burlington VT, and that could end up being the biggest story from this. I don't think Burlington had significant ice in 1998, but they definitely will this time around.

[schinz]

Why do posts keep dissapearing with no explanation?  I hope someone reads this and responds before it dissapears.

[Syrmax]

Impressive... 55F around SYR. The BGM AFD talking about "significant" snow melt. Looks like its going to be "all" the snow melts, save for the piles in the parking lots. We are down to 3" depth (from 12" three days ago) and its getting patchy. I'll take it over a ZR storm though. Maybe Ol' Man Lake Ontario will rescue a white XMas.

Worst ZR I experienced was in No. NJ back in the early 1970s, which started as a decent snowstorm. That storm got me interested in wx...I was intrigued by the CBS 880 met talking about temps in the 50s in the clouds while it was 17F at the surface and raining hard. The Albany / ENY ZR storm in April ~2003(?) was the other notable one i personally experienced, which was even more unusual due to its timing in the spring. Lost power for a day and you could hear what almost sounded like gunfire outside towards the end of that storm, but it was trees/limbs snapping.

[ayuud11]

Latest RAP 2m temps projection bring down the temps to 33F by 6PM and then it brings it down to 32F and it stays that way till 5AM.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake Erie back up to 35 degrees!

[ayuud11]

 

 

...MAJOR ICE STORM LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR THE SAINT

LAWRENCE RIVER...

...SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO

ROCHESTER...

...WIDESPREAD FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...

VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH

EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL

REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS

BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A CONDUIT FOR WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FROM A

SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RUN ALONG

THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TRIGGER

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH LOW

LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TOPPED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL

ALL BE DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL ENHANCE

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. A 170 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET

SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE. IN THIS STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT RISING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...

WHICH IS ALMOST OFF THE CHARTS FOR LATE DECEMBER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FOCUS ALONG AND JUST

NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS

MAXIMIZED. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THE NIAGARA

FRONTIER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...

THEN SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...

FINGER LAKES...AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MAY

EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

NEXT CONCERN IS ICING POTENTIAL. FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE

NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF

A LINE FROM FROM WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW

FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE 32F LINE SHOULD CREEP A

LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON

COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S

DURING THE HEART OF THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY EFFICIENT

ACCRETION OF FREEZING RAIN TO ICE. ADDITIONAL ICE AMOUNTS OF UP TO

1.5 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA...ON TOP OF WHAT AS FALLEN. IF

THIS VERIFIES...IT WOULD PRODUCE A MAJOR ICE STORM IN THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT

WOULD LAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

THERE IS ALSO A MORE MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ICING ACROSS THE NIAGARA

FRONTIER. IN THIS AREA...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME

ESTABLISHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER

LOW LEVEL AIR NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A MEAN OF THE

NAM/GEM/GFS RAW 2M TEMPS BRINGS THIS AREA TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW

FREEZING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. PRECIP

AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH IN THIS AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR

THE FREEZING MARK THE CONVERSION FROM LIQUID WATER TO ICE WILL

LIKELY BE INEFFICIENT...WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL PORTION ABLE TO

FREEZE INTO ICE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT ICE AMOUNTS TO A MAX

OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE COUNTIES

AND ALSO FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST ERIE AND NORTHERN GENESEE COUNTY. ICE

ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND

POWERLINES WITH SUCH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...WITH A LESSER RISK OF

ROADS ICING.

[Snowlover11]

Well im up here visting family up here near Massena,NY and we already have a soild .2" of ice on top of the 14" of snowcover, my car is a solid icebox.

[kulaginman]

Well im up here visting family up here near Massena,NY and we already have a soild .2" of ice on top of the 14" of snowcover, my car is a solid icebox.

 

Good luck to you man, hopefully this changes to sleet up your way tonight. Keep us posted as long as you're able to! I wasn't sure if we had any posters in the prime ice zone.

 

Damage is already being reported in Jefferson County. I wouldn't be surprised if places north/east of ART end up with 2" of ice by midday tomorrow. Euro 2m temps actually cool into the teens in parts of northern New York tonight, so the liquid to ice conversion that Buffalo speaks of will be extremely efficient up there. With temperatures that cold, there won't be much QPF lost to runoff at all. Yikes.

[vortmax]

Are the short term models trending the same/cooler/warmer on the southern shore? Temps are falling and NE winds are picking up...

[WNash]

I'm looking at SPIA Index parameters to guesstimate where the Ice Storm Warning for WNY would fit. I'm thinking it would mostly be covered by an SPIA value of 1, for radial ice up to 0.5 in. and winds less than 15 mph.

Effects of SPIA Index value 1 top out at scattered short-term power outages, and some slick and hazardous roads. Nothing compared to what we expect for the north country/NNE, and parts of Ontario and Quebec.

[Sub_Zero]

Well im up here visting family up here near Massena,NY and we already have a soild .2" of ice on top of the 14" of snowcover, my car is a solid icebox.

You are only a 50 min drive to Ottawa. 2'-3' on the ground and more tomorrow. Come for a day trip.