BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Snowing pretty heavily for last 90 minutes or so. Big fluffy flakes. This stuff just doesn't stop, some insane snow depths out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 it severely impacted the city of Montreal...a huge population center of nearly 1,000,000 people at the time. With a metropolitan region of more than 4 million now, it would be catastrophic even if it is 50% of what we had in 1998. 2 million people on the island in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Excellent discussions from NWS BUF recently. I was not aware of an ice storm in January 1979... Anyway, the Euro shifted colder along with the GFS last night...but it is still extremely marginal for icing in western New York. The best chance (as it stands right now) is probably in the hills of Wyoming County where the projected 2m temps dip a tad below 32F, but not until Sunday morning. There is a larger area of near-32F temps that includes many of the northern/eastern suburbs of BUF, but ice has a very difficult time accumulating when temps are right at the 32F mark especially if the days leading up to the event were not particularly cold. For ideal ice storm conditions, I like to see temperatures in the 20s. What is extremely impressive, however, is the temperature gradient projected for Sunday morning. The image below is the Euro at 15z (10AM) Sunday. Note the area of near-32F temps north/east of BUF, while temperatures in the Southern Tier have surged into the 55-60F range! EC_temps.PNG Fwiw, I believe the hills of Wyoming County DID experience significant icing in the January 1998 event... Wow, incredible disparity in temperatures! Thanks for posting. This one should be fun to track, but expecting plain rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow, incredible disparity in temperatures! Thanks for posting. This one should be fun to track, but expecting plain rain here. My personal expectations are for plain rain as well, albeit a cold rain with temps in the 30s at BUF. This is good from a hydro perspective as the snowpack hasn't been rained on to my knowledge, so it should be able to absorb almost all of the QPF as long as the temp does remain in the 30s. I'm pretty comfortable that we will be having a white Christmas in Buffalo, even if it does end up being a stale crusty snowpack. The snowpack is much more threatened in the Southern Tier. If temps rise into the mid to upper 50s as the Euro is suggesting, there is going to be enormous loss of snow down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS is warmer at h85, but now has a pretty solid 1032 high over Quebec. This is a bad look for the St. Lawrence Valley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS has the 10C line near Lake Ontario. Still in its unreliable range 100+ hours away, but it's not really an outlier. The snowpack around the city isn't enough to be damaging, I think. But places like East Aurora and south, this could be scary flooding and hydro issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS has quite the amped up primary low...it'll be interesting to see if that verifies in the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Another interesting tidbit in regards to icing potential. This storm will fall during the weekend with the lowest sun angle and shortest amount of daylight hours. This will certainly help in regards to keeping surface temperatures down even if antecedent temperatures arent overly cold. That said, I used to absolutely love ice storms, or I was at least very fascinated by them. However, since becoming a home owner several years ago (with a yard full of enormous 100 year old trees!), I now greatly fear ice storms and really hope we end up with only rain. I am still fascinated by them from a meteorological standpoint, but I really don't want them occurring in my backyard anymore. All in all, a very interesting weekend on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I know most here are in Central or Western NY, but the last major ice storm in "Upstate" NY was in December 2008 in Eastern NY. New England got most of the press for it, but the damage in the Albany suburbs was every bit as bad and long-lasting. I was lucky to get power back after a day and a half...some didn't get it back for a week or two or more. I would rather roast at 60 and lose all my snowpack than go through that again... There was an ice storm in the middle of January 2007, and 1/15/07 was the #1 analog on the CIPS product earlier today (January 1998 was #4). It was a bigger deal in New England than it was in Upstate NY from what I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Looks like the BUF afternoon AFD didn't change much which hints that they're holding their cards close until future model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyR Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyone have an idea on timing for this mess on Saturday? Driving from Poughkeepsie to Buffalo Saturday morning and the trip is a heck of a lot faster and easier when the Thruway is dry, or at least not frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I know most here are in Central or Western NY, but the last major ice storm in "Upstate" NY was in December 2008 in Eastern NY. New England got most of the press for it, but the damage in the Albany suburbs was every bit as bad and long-lasting. I was lucky to get power back after a day and a half...some didn't get it back for a week or two or more. I would rather roast at 60 and lose all my snowpack than go through that again... I remember the December 2008 event very well. I was forecasting the wx in Binghamton at the time, and we dodged a major bullet with that event...just a few hours of fzra at the onset, then most valley locations flipped to plain rain. My best friend, on the other hand, lives in New Ipswich NH and was without power for 14 days. Nasty event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 it's time to rent a boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 00z Euro indicating a period of icing possible (but again, extremely marginal) to the north/east of BUF between 00z-06z Sunday, then temperatures dramatically warm with 55-60F readings surging all the way to BUF late Saturday night. I'm a bit skeptical of such warmth making it all the way up to the Niagara Frontier - the low level cold can be tough to dislodge on the lake plain, but I think any locations with elevation to the south of I-90 are going to "torch" for at least a few hours Saturday night into Sunday morning. In other news...already eyeing the potential for a lake effect event next Monday into Tuesday, so hopefully we can freshen up the snowpack in time for Christmas after it takes a major hit this weekend. Obviously way too early to dive head first into details at this point, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That's more like what I'd expect from the current AO; nice look from that rising NAO, or is the Pacific about to flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Really cocerned with a major icing event into the north country and heading east into northern vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Really cocerned with a major icing event into the north country and heading east into northern vermont. That's about the only place with a legit icing concern at this point. Another aspect of this event that we haven't touched on is the wind in western NY. There is a very strong southwesterly LLJ that sets up late Saturday night through Sunday. If the warm front blasts north like its currently projected to...I think we could be looking at widespread 45-50 mph wind gusts during this period...especially across the higher terrain. The wind will only accelerate snowmelt. Very good chance that anyone with less than a foot of snow on the ground loses all of their snow by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro takes temperatures down into the -10s in the areas with the real ice storm threat (St. Lawrence Valley) Christmas morning. Not a good situation considering there could still be many without power at that point. Fingers crossed that this does NOT pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Geeze the GFS doesn't want to budge from the ice..even as the Euro and the NAM tick a bit warmer near the surface. These forecasts are always quite tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Geeze the GFS doesn't want to budge from the ice..even as the Euro and the NAM tick a bit warmer near the surface. These forecasts are always quite tricky. Are you buying into the ggem? it has the freezing rain all the way down to the metro on sunday and it has been consistent about it for the past several runs.. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Are you buying into the ggem? it has the freezing rain all the way down to the metro on sunday and it has been consistent about it for the past several runs.. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html No chance, stop looking at colors...You know better. 2-3 inches of rain this weekend, temperatures in the 50s on Sunday. At least Lake Erie will defrost some so we can get back to the continuous LES soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 No chance, stop looking at colors...You know better. 2-3 inches of rain this weekend, temperatures in the 50s on Sunday. At least Lake Erie will defrost some so we can get back to the continuous LES soon. LOL i know but the 18z gfs has trended colder again and some freezing rain does it make it toward our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 LOL i know but the 18z gfs has trended colder again and some freezing rain does it make it toward our area. I just don't see it happening. In events like these the Niagara Frontier always heats up more than expected. Those down-sloping winds are no joke. If there calling for highs in the 50s, we will hit 60. A much better chance from Rochester east and north and in Valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I just don't see it happening. In events like these the Niagara Frontier always heats up more than expected. Those down-sloping winds are no joke. If there calling for highs in the 50s, we will hit 60. A much better chance from Rochester east and north and in Valleys. Hope you are right LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Check out this cool video on how they use to plow snow back in the old days over the Tug hill region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wonder if there's any video from the years that the USAF snow blowers from the SAC base in Rome, NY came up to break out the roads in the 1970's? Those are the last of the 'epic' years.... Most towns have auctioned off their old Walthers, Oshkosh, and other 'heavy draft' equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I just don't see it happening. In events like these the Niagara Frontier always heats up more than expected. Those down-sloping winds are no joke. If there calling for highs in the 50s, we will hit 60. A much better chance from Rochester east and north and in Valleys. You're only going to downslope when the winds turn south/southeast. We don't downslope on a northeast wind. 00z gfs comes in even colder than the previous run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS is hitting the icing potential pretty hard in BUF. This plot is based on the 18z run, but it's showing over 1" of the QPF falling as fzra: 2m temps on the Euro hover in the 32-39F range through 06z Sunday, and significant precip will be falling in the 00z-06z window. After 06z the LLJ causes the warm front to rocket northward, sending temps into the 50s by morning. Does that actually happen? We'll see, but we are getting within the timeframe when it is awfully hard to discount the Euro. Either way, I wouldn't rule out some icing (especially in the northern/eastern suburbs) Saturday evening...though the GFS may be a little on the aggressive side lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The NAM isn't nearly as cold as the GFS, but if you look at the wind profile it does bring the surface winds around to the NE for a time around 00z Sunday...so it'll be important to watch surface temps across Lake Ontario during the day Saturday to see what kind of low level cold will be able to drain down onto the Niagara Frontier during the evening: Check out those wind speeds Sunday morning, though...65kts out of the SW around 900mb. If the NAM is correct and we manage to surge into the upper 50s Sunday morning, there will be definite wind issues with a roaring LLJ down to such low altitudes and virtually no inversion to prevent those winds from mixing down. Man, what a forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro just came in showing snowstorm for north western ny. See oz euro 72 hr totals with 6"+ for niagara,orleans,Monroe, sand even north gene see and Erie! Unbelievable. I hope this trend continues. Ps: last storm Rochester airport amended its totals to 9" after the bogus 4 " report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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