lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Got about a fresh foot of new snow since early this afternoon. Absolutely incredible that this wasn't modeled at all. 11.5" here since 3:30. Snow is falling lightly now. 25 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I live 5 miles west of Geneseo and we have gotten hammered with this band. Roughly 6 inches in the past 3 hours. We never see lake effect his strong this far east of Erie. I'm in snow Heaven right now! you guys have been getting into action with this LES bands as of late,Enjoy your snow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 How is the long range pattern looking once we get past Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ended up with close to 9 inches. The band has dropped south. But man o man that was awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Cannot believe I am over 50 inches by 12/15....Winter hasn't even started yet. I'll post a video of the event today with the thundersnow tomorrow after I do some editing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Cannot believe I am over 50 inches by 12/15....Winter hasn't even started yet. I'll post a video of the event today with the thundersnow tomorrow after I do some editing. unreal isn't it? At approx 53" for the season already. Cant wait to see that video as I know how intense it was but for the others who didn't get to experience it, can find some real joy watching it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 In Michigan. EPIC Meso Low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lots of moisture and enhancement from the lakes on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We are getting 3-4 inches per hour within this band the last 2-3 hours. Great save but why does the scale only go to 28 dbz? Lots of moisture and enhancement from the lakes on the GEM Good. I was sort of in the screw zone again here in Ontario with the band that took center stage off Huron. I'm starting to get majorly pissed off about it because it never sits! Even in that GEM image, the heavier band over ON is just to my south . I read the last two pages of the incredible LES streamer you guys got and again await this video, might be some of the best ever captured . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Some HUGE fluff flakes coming down here right now... picked up 4" overnight. Located in Southwest corner Oswego County. Was gonna plow the driveway but i better wait haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Them huge flakes put down another 4" inches in a hours time WOW. Pure fluff flakes. Still coming down lightly with small flakes. Time to plow now i think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yup...measured almost 5" overnight and looks like another 3" since then and still going. Not even an advisory here...we've eclipsed the storm totals which didn't really, or barely, reached WSW criteria. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 000NOUS41 KBUF 161920PNSBUFNYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170720-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY220 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ERIE COUNTY...2 W WEST SENECA 3.0 1100 AM 12/16 COCORAHS...OSWEGO COUNTY...1 NE PULASKI 12.0 1200 PM 12/16 COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...1 SSE PORT BAY 23.0 158 PM 12/16 PUBLICRED CREEK 18.0 211 PM 12/16 POST OFFICEWOLCOTT 7.0 216 PM 12/16 POST OFFICE***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************LOCATION SNOW TIME/DATE COMMENTSON GROUND OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ERIE COUNTY...2 W WEST SENECA 9.0 1100 AM 12/16 COCORAHS...OSWEGO COUNTY...1 NE PULASKI 26.5 1200 PM 12/16 COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...WOLCOTT 20.0 216 PM 12/16 POST OFFICE$JAM They have been getting shelled up near the Tug now the past 7 days. Got friends from Millersville up there for OWLeS project. Last night, Sandy Creek, NY where they were located got 17" and the report out of Redfield was 27". 2-4"/hr in the best bands. Amazing start to the season up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 -0.5 degrees on my thermometer. Earliest I can remember it getting below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 -0.5 degrees on my thermometer. Earliest I can remember it getting below zero. It's a balmy 15F up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This next trough digging into the western CONUS and its attendant ULL will be interesting for early next week. Too early to get worked up about it but we will be close to a slow moving frontal boundary in NY, PA and ONT. Could be wet pre XMas in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This next trough digging into the western CONUS and its attendant ULL will be interesting for early next week. Too early to get worked up about it but we will be close to a slow moving frontal boundary in NY, PA and ONT. Could be wet pre XMas in NY. Wet is an understatement. 2 Inches+ of rain is going to cause some serious flooding if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That isn't really far off from an ice storm, keep an eye on the arctic boundary just lurking to the north of the stationary front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That isn't really far off from an ice storm, keep an eye on the arctic boundary just lurking to the north of the stationary front. Yes! I mentioned this a couple days ago. That's a pretty good high bridging across Ontario and Quebec, so I'd be worried about "sneaky" low level cold draining down onto the Niagara Frontier on north northeasterly winds. Best chance of this occurring would obviously be along the counties bordering Lake Ontario. Models may underestimate the cold temps at the surface too. We'll see. Unfortunately for the majority of western New York I think the odds are much higher that this next event ends up being a real soaker, especially in the Southern Tier. I was contemplating bringing my skis home for a day at HV next week, but I think I'll leave them here. Still a few days for things to change obviously, but the trend on the Euro has been concerning (just a couple days ago it was showing primarily snow from this system) so I'm not terribly optimistic. Wish I had access to the ensembles. Then again, I do seem to bring good luck when I come home, so we'll see. This weekend will be a real test of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Snowpack can survive a 38F soaker much better than a 50F soaker though. That's really what I'm hoping for now, is that this is a cold rain and the front gets through by Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It just keeps getting better and better lol THIS SAME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LARGER-SCALE FORCING WILL ALSOLEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FORLAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH THIS PARTICULARLY BECOMING THECASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE ENHANCEDSNOWFALL TO INITIALLY SET UP FROM LAKE ERIE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THEPORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTH OF BUFFALO DURING THEEVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS EAST OF THE LAKE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDSBECOME MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE.GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...FAVORABLE MOISTURE...AND LAKE EQLS RISING TO A LITTLE OVER 10 KFT...THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR THIS BAND TO BECOME BRIEFLY INTENSE AS IT SHIFTSSOUTHWARD...THOUGH ITS ANTICIPATED QUICK MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY HELPTO LIMIT ACCUMS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. FOR NOW...HAVEPAINTED ACCUMS OF 2-4" ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...THOUGH HIGHERAMOUNTS WORTHY OF AT LEAST A LES ADVISORY CANNOT AT ALL BE RULED OUTJUST YET. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT 3-5" ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES WHERE THE LES WILL BECOME MOREPERSISTENT OVERNIGHT...AND WHERE A LES ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED INCONSIDERATION OF BOTH THIS AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF2-3" ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes! I mentioned this a couple days ago. That's a pretty good high bridging across Ontario and Quebec, so I'd be worried about "sneaky" low level cold draining down onto the Niagara Frontier on north northeasterly winds. Best chance of this occurring would obviously be along the counties bordering Lake Ontario. Models may underestimate the cold temps at the surface too. We'll see. Unfortunately for the majority of western New York I think the odds are much higher that this next event ends up being a real soaker, especially in the Southern Tier. I was contemplating bringing my skis home for a day at HV next week, but I think I'll leave them here. Still a few days for things to change obviously, but the trend on the Euro has been concerning (just a couple days ago it was showing primarily snow from this system) so I'm not terribly optimistic. Wish I had access to the ensembles. Then again, I do seem to bring good luck when I come home, so we'll see. This weekend will be a real test of that If i remember correctly most ice storms that we have had in the past had a NNE wind component,any reason to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 NAM especially shows good LES for Buffalo/Northtowns for a few hours tonight. And the local mets are basically ignoring this again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 NAM especially shows good LES for Buffalo/Northtowns for a few hours tonight. And the local mets are basically ignoring this again... Snowing pretty good right now,we received 1.5" last night and maybe an inch with this shortwave that is passing by and w/e falls tonight. Snowpack is slowly building up although it's unfortunate we have it all melt by the weekend with that rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html NAM projection nailed this little lake enhanced shot that's hitting the Metro now for the last day or so. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sat image from yesterday shows some ice building in the far western basin of L Erie. I suppose one bright spot of the warming later this week is it will slow down the freezing process... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The lake effect here was beautiful yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Albany had a low temperature of -5° this morning. That was the first subzero low there since January 24, 2013 (-4°) and the coldest there since January 3, 2013 (-5°). It was also the first December subzero low since December 28, 2004 (-4°), the coldest December low since December 20, 2004 (-5°), and the earliest subzero low since December 14, 1989 (-1°). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Albany had a low temperature of -5° this morning. That was the first subzero low there since January 24, 2013 (-4°) and the coldest there since January 3, 2013 (-5°). It was also the first December subzero low since December 28, 2004 (-4°), the coldest December low since December 20, 2004 (-5°), and the earliest subzero low since December 14, 1989 (-1°). Impressive cold. Haven't really focused much on that with the snow over the last several days. Rochester broke a record low today: 000 SXUS71 KBUF 171202 RERROC RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 700 AM EDT TUE DEC 17 2013 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ROCHESTER NY THIS MORNING... THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO -4 DEGREES AT THE ROCHESTER AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 17TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS -3 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1919. $ DPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ASIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC INGREDIENTS...A POWERFUL 200+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FINALLY A WELL DEFINED RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL ADVECT EXTREMELY MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN A COMPLICATED SET OF POTENTIAL FORECAST PROBLEMS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN A FLOODING THREAT. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE TROUGH COULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF DROPPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR A MAJOR FREEZING RAIN EVENT WILL EXIST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE CURRENT CIPS ANALOGS TO THIS WEEKEND`S PROGGED PATTERN INVOLVE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...INCLUDING THE INFAMOUS FREEZING RAIN EVENT OF JANUARY 1998 THAT SEVERELY IMPACTED THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND QUEBEC. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...THE TEMPERATURE WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING...CREATING A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FLOODING. IN ADDITION...IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FREEZING LINE...CREATING ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY. ALL OF THAT SAID...ALL IT WILL TAKE IS FOR THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE 100 MILES AND EITHER DIRECTION AND THE LOCATIONS OF THE ABOVE HAZARDS WILL SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT THIS WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SOME MEASURE OF CLARITY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST PICTURE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...USHERING IN THE RETURN OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.