BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 i know but what can ya do? Getting my car ready for some lake snow chasing later this week. Thinking somewhere near Ellicottville with a 2000' + elevation should be pretty white by weeks end. I will be going with ya on some of these chases as long as you fix my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 I will be going with ya on some of these chases as long as you fix my car. I gotcha just shoot me a text before you come to the dealer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 As of 12:15 pm EDT, a record-breaking 43 waterspouts over Lake Ontario! Per International Centre For Waterspout Research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Lake-effect snow watch up for Lewis county for 5-9 inches of accumulation. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ008&warncounty=NYC049&firewxzone=NYZ008&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch#.UmZqLeERh0g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Lake-effect snow watch up for Lewis county for 5-9 inches of accumulation. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ008&warncounty=NYC049&firewxzone=NYZ008&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch#.UmZqLeERh0g think i will be heading up there Wednesday to Thursday to chase the first snow event of the year. Gonna keep an eye on the mesoscale models and the forecast from the NWS but if theres the possibility for 6" or more Im pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 LES Watch upgraded to a LES Warning by the NWS. Pretty sure Im pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 LES Watch upgraded to a LES Warning by the NWS. Pretty sure Im pulling the trigger. Good luck! The 12z GFS looks fairly impressive for Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the atmosphere saturated all the up to around 600 mb. This includes the dendritic snow growth zone which should also have good upward vertical motion within the band. Only the near-surface region is just above freezing so the precip looks to be mainly snow, at least for the eastern Tug Hill with the highest elevations. The winds actually look to be a hair north of due west so southern areas of the Tug Hill may have the band over them for the greatest amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Good luck! The 12z GFS looks fairly impressive for Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the atmosphere saturated all the up to around 600 mb. This includes the dendritic snow growth zone which should also have good upward vertical motion within the band. Only the near-surface region is just above freezing so the precip looks to be mainly snow, at least for the eastern Tug Hill with the highest elevations. The winds actually look to be a hair north of due west so southern areas of the Tug Hill may have the band over them for the greatest amount of time. GFS_3_2013102212_F48_43.5000N_75.5000W.png Do you (or anyone on the board) have any suggestions where to head? Ive been checking out Topo maps and thinking the best area will be near the Highmarket area with some elevations near 2000'. The NWS mentioned the October 29th, 2006 event as a nearly identical analog and Highmarket was the winner there with 11". I also need somewhere to crash for the night (Im sleeping in my vehicle) but would like somewhere where theres stores, such as Walmart, Tops, McDonalds, ect.... I think my spot to crash Wednesday night for a couple hours will be in Lowville as it seems they have some modern amenities/stores even though they will likley be north of the main lake effect Thursday morning.Also NWS mentioing the possibility for Thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Do you (or anyone on the board) have any suggestions where to head? Ive been checking out Topo maps and thinking the best area will be near the Highmarket area with some elevations near 2000'. The NWS mentioned the October 29th, 2006 event as a nearly identical analog and Highmarket was the winner there with 11". I also need somewhere to crash for the night (Im sleeping in my vehicle) but would like somewhere where theres stores, such as Walmart, Tops, McDonalds, ect.... I think my spot to crash Wednesday night for a couple hours will be in Lowville as it seems they have some modern amenities/stores even though they will likley be north of the main lake effect Thursday morning. Also NWS mentioing the possibility for Thundersnow GL bro, take some pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 What's considered "Highmarket" (at least to me)is basically no mans land and will no find anything there. Dirt rds and couple sled shops and 2 so/so bars, that may not even be open this time of yr...You should be able to find some amenties around Turin or Lyons Falls but may need to fall back on Boonville/Lowville for a Wally world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Do you (or anyone on the board) have any suggestions where to head? Ive been checking out Topo maps and thinking the best area will be near the Highmarket area with some elevations near 2000'. The NWS mentioned the October 29th, 2006 event as a nearly identical analog and Highmarket was the winner there with 11". I also need somewhere to crash for the night (Im sleeping in my vehicle) but would like somewhere where theres stores, such as Walmart, Tops, McDonalds, ect.... I think my spot to crash Wednesday night for a couple hours will be in Lowville as it seems they have some modern amenities/stores even though they will likley be north of the main lake effect Thursday morning. Also NWS mentioing the possibility for Thundersnow Yeah, the Highmarket area is probably one of highest elevations on the Tug Hill. That would probably be the safest play with regards to precip type. As far as places to stay, Lowville is probably the largest town and has a Walmart, though it is like 20 miles away from Highmarket. Boonville is slightly closer but has a bit less stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Yeah, the Highmarket area is probably one of highest elevations on the Tug Hill. That would probably be the safest play with regards to precip type. As far as places to stay, Lowville is probably the largest town and has a Walmart, though it is like 20 miles away from Highmarket. Boonville is slightly closer but has a bit less stuff. Nice little Motel called the Edge on State Route 12 in Lyons Falls, NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 GL bro, take some pictures! Thanks bro, I definitely will! Got the HD video cam on the charger now. What's considered "Highmarket" (at least to me)is basically no mans land and will no find anything there. Dirt rds and couple sled shops and 2 so/so bars, that may not even be open this time of yr... You should be able to find some amenties around Turin or Lyons Falls but may need to fall back on Boonville/Lowville for a Wally world... I know Highmarket is pretty desolate which is why I plan to chase the snow there but fall back into Lowville to eat/crash for the night. Yeah, the Highmarket area is probably one of highest elevations on the Tug Hill. That would probably be the safest play with regards to precip type. As far as places to stay, Lowville is probably the largest town and has a Walmart, though it is like 20 miles away from Highmarket. Boonville is slightly closer but has a bit less stuff. I figured Highmarket would be the best area as its far enough from Lake Ontario to see any warming, its in a prime location for the heaviest QPF according to the latest mesoscale models and theres plenty of elevation (seeing some 2000' plus elevations on the topo map) so I shouldnt have to worry as much about precip type there. Nice little Motel called the Edge on State Route 12 in Lyons Falls, NY...thanks for the info but I plan on crashing in my vehicle unless it gets really bad. Also does anyone know how the leaves are in that area of the Tug Hill because the NWS is stating there could be downed trees/power lines but I would think the trees in that area are already almost bare given their elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Thanks bro, I definitely will! Got the HD video cam on the charger now. I know Highmarket is pretty desolate which is why I plan to chase the snow there but fall back into Lowville to eat/crash for the night. I figured Highmarket would be the best area as its far enough from Lake Ontario to see any warming, its in a prime location for the heaviest QPF according to the latest mesoscale models and theres plenty of elevation (seeing some 2000' plus elevations on the topo map) so I shouldnt have to worry as much about precip type there. thanks for the info but I plan on crashing in my vehicle unless it gets really bad. Also does anyone know how the leaves are in that area of the Tug Hill because the NWS is stating there could be downed trees/power lines but I would think the trees in that area are already almost bare given their elevation. Most of the leaves are off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 The latest mesoscale model runs this morning seem to produce the most intense band during the period Thursday morning to evening. Both the BTV WRF and the 4km NAM have an upwind connection to Georgian bay during this time. The GFS now has the profile saturated up to around 500 mb. However, the lowest 500 meters on the GFS are above freezing at a grid point located at 1600 ft on the Tug Hill. The big question will be if the strong dynamics within the band can produce enough cooling to lower those temperatures just above the surface to freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Safely at my hotel in Watertown (Yes I decided to grab a hotel). Drove through a heavy snow shower between Syracuse and Watertown around 830 pm. Will be leaving early in the AM to head to the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Enjoy the snow up there in the far north! My parents haven't seen any snow up in Jamestown yet, but they probably will tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 NWS jus upped the snowfall totals for The Tug. Now calling for 8-15". Very glad I pulled the trigger TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...TAKING AIM DIRECTLY AT THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE ARE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S...HOWEVER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUCKLY WITH A WET 8 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS 6 TO 12 INCHES AS THE BAND SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT PRODUCER OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ON TO THE TUG. IF THE BAND IS AS INTENSE AS THE SET UP AND MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST...DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES COUPLED WITH ELEVATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAINTAINING P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE TUG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ben Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 First plow of the year just came down the street in Oz. Half-inch of slush here overnight, in the midst of days of lake-effect rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Took this earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 So far not much going on up here in the Tug Hill I had to go all the way up to about 2,000 feet to find about 4 or 5 inches of snow back down at an elevation of about 1400 feet there is only a very slushy coating on the grass trying to find out where I should go next to try to find a good amount of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Got into an accident but I'm okay besidse a badly bruised leg. Car can't drive though so I'm awaiting family to pick me up from Buffalo. Its gonna be a long time though. It was bad up there! Got some good video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Got into an accident but I'm okay besidse a badly bruised leg. Car can't drive though so I'm awaiting family to pick me up from Buffalo. Its gonna be a long time though. It was bad up there! Got some good video! Bummer! Hazards of storm chasing I guess. Photos you posted earlier were great - looking forward to seeing some pics/video of the snow. Safe travels home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Got into an accident but I'm okay besidse a badly bruised leg. Car can't drive though so I'm awaiting family to pick me up from Buffalo. Its gonna be a long time though. It was bad up there! Got some good video! Dang man that blows! Hope everything works out okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 General track of the precip was south of central tug- mostly Boonville south towards Utica, so more rain than snow- and the band split, with the weaker portion running across the Turin-Lowville axis (this is what Kid hit), and a lot of the energy actually washed up over the northern tier as light mixed precip. Pretty neat. So, winds a little too diffuse, air and lake temps a little too warm for significant snowfall. BTW; leaves are down except for the late ones- popples, birch, etc., and the snow was mostly heavy enough to fall off the leaves rather than stick and bend the branches. (Observed between 1000- 1500' elev.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Looks like a decent little wind event/low topped squall line tomorrow night. Feels good to be back... Oh yeah, what was the final tally on the Tug from this last event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Looks like a decent little wind event/low topped squall line tomorrow night. Feels good to be back... Oh yeah, what was the final tally on the Tug from this last event? I know around the town of Lewis (West Leyden) they got around 12 inches of lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 I know around the town of Lewis (West Leyden) they got around 12 inches of lake snow.I measured 8" of snow in the town of Lewis around 11:30am-12 noon on Thursday before I got in the car accident, so I have no problem believing they had a foot of snow there. It was very bad out. Been very busy with the accident, work, and school, but I will gladly post pics and videos in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Any NWS reports? 'Around' the town of Lewis, reports of 'around' 12" of snow usually turn out to be around 8" officially, and 8" is usually under 6", which wouldn't even merit consideration for a one hour school delay without whiteout conditions. Years ago a buddy and I concocted this elaborate formula to post the '24 hour snowfall' at the ski area we worked at- it was confusing enough to keep us out of trouble with management, honest enough to placate us, and funny enough to amuse anyone who'd bother to read it- about twelve different mathematical terms describing the mountains 'official' report x (.5) Nothing reported here; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakepage.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I measured 8" of snow in the town of Lewis around 11:30am-12 noon on Thursday before I got in the car accident, so I have no problem believing they had a foot of snow there. It was very bad out. Been very busy with the accident, work, and school, but I will gladly post pics and videos in the next few days. Sorry to hear about the car accident. Look forward to seeing your pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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