OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 There was a big northtowns LES event in December 1937,over four feet of snow fell in two day period! Cool. Do you have a link for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah should lead to some pretty decent ratios with temps as they are. several hours of strong vv's punching through the DGZ tonight will also help.. before we dry out above 700 hPa Yea it looks like the 00z to 06z period will be quite fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Cool. Do you have a link for that? This might be it: http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No3/1977v002no03-Dewey.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 When did you start measuring for this storm? Today? Last night? Steady -SN to +SN at times since 2 last night,also it looks like wny is getting into the 25dbz now per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This might be it: http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1977/Vol02No3/1977v002no03-Dewey.pdf That and i also had another link saved on a PDF file on my computer,i'm trying to find it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Down to 9 degrees with a solid light snow....This is the coldest to start a storm I can remember since the Valentine's Day megastorm in '07. Yea it looks like the 00z to 06z period will be quite fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Down to 9 degrees with a solid light snow....This is the coldest to start a storm I can remember since the Valentine's Day megastorm in '07. Our high today was a blazing 10F. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like a dry slot or something of that ilk is on a line from Cleveland to Buffalo. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Cool. Do you have a link for that? http://www.scribd.com/doc/191552513/December-8-10-1937-LES-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nasty dry slot of doom surging up through WNY at the current time. The coastal transfer is obviously having an effect now too.. We'll see what the comma head can do but thats not the radar image I was expecting at 7pm tonight. blarg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Regarding the dry slot... CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIDE SWATHOF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ANDNEW YORK STATE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW IS BEING REPORTEDWITH SNOWFALL RATES RUNNING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH PERHOUR. A DRY SLOT IS SHOWING UP ON KBUF RADAR ACROSS NORTHWEST PAINTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH IS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THEENTIRE SYSTEM AS IT WRAPS IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THISDRY SLOT WILL BRING A SHORT WINDOW WITH A BREAK IN SNOWFALL THISEVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BUT EXPECT THAT THIS WILL FILL BACKIN LATER IN THE EVENING AS WRAP-AROUND/COMMA HEAD DRIVEN SNOW ON THEBACK SIDE OF THE TRANSITIONING LOW SHIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THELATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE BREAK IN SNOW MAYEVEN CUT BACK ON SNOW TOTALS IF THE WRAP AROUND TAKES LONGER TO FILLBACK IN. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXHIBITING MORE IN THE WAY OFSYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD EVEN BRING MORE INTENSESNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Regarding the dry slot... Dry slot about to make an appearance in my backyard. Eyeballing about 4" new snow today, most of it falling between 4-7 PM. Came down hard for those 3 hours, but flake size was iffy which kept totals in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Heavy snow for the past 90 minutes in Ithaca. It looks as if eastern CNY could be temporarily saved from the dry slot thanks to some backbuilding in southern PA and a sudden flareup of convection around Pittsburgh. We should easily pass 6 inches by the time this is all done tomorrow AM, since we're already quite close at the moment. Binghamton's 4-6 call will be confirmed to be a joke. Still have no clue what they were seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Dry slot about to make an appearance in my backyard. Eyeballing about 4" new snow today, most of it falling between 4-7 PM. Came down hard for those 3 hours, but flake size was iffy which kept totals in check. Snow seems a bit heavy on the western end of buffalo,It also looks like the nws have cut down the snowfall totals for the Genesee valley from 6-10" to 5-8" and 4-6" for N.frontier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Decent storm here around SYR...not crippling but it is windy. Drove thru Lights on the Lake in the snow, was excellent. Dendrites not all that impressive for the most part...more of a rice texture (best lift not in SGZ thusfar?). I'd estimate about 4" a bit N of SYR. Keep that damn dryslot away! LES looks intriguing off Ontario post storm, which George observed earlier. I think even if we end up a shade low synoptically, the Lake may bail us out Sunday and Sun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 WFO BGM now posts a WSW for Broome and surrounding counties but not all counties...either their map is not fully updated or they are really micro managing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Still moderate snow in Ithaca. Was coming down pretty good in the past 2 hours or so. There has been some drifting, but I'd say about 7" so far for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Still moderate snow in Ithaca. Was coming down pretty good in the past 2 hours or so. There has been some drifting, but I'd say about 7" so far for the storm. And you are still under an Advisory! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The best snowfall rates should be in this batch that moves in over the next few hours....lift should be deeper through the SGZ so flakes will be bigger and dendritic as opposed to those small ones from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Updated BGM accum map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 9 PM UPDATE... WITH BANDS OF ONE INCH AN HOUR SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UPPED AND THE WARNING AREA EXPANDED. REPORT OF SLEET NEAR AVP BUT STILL MOSTLY SNOW EVERYWHERE. FURTHER SOUTH SOUTH OF I80 MIX OR FZRA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO AVP AND PROBABLY MSV AROUND MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE IN SRN PA SO SEVERAL HOURS OF MIX IN THE SOUTH. ICE AMOUNTS THERE STILL LOOK GOOD AND WELL BELOW HALF INCH WARNING AMOUNTS. ENDING TIME OF FLAGS OF 7 AM LOOKS GOOD STILL WITH THE PRECIP PULLING OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMP DOWN. 10-14 for MBY and Syracuse area...I have my doubts, but there is a solid refilling of echoes to the south. About 4.5" today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Updated BGM accum map. In other words, exactly the accums models have been showing for the past 5 days. Gee, who could have expected that would happen? Embarrassing for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 In other words, exactly the accums models have been showing for the past 5 days. Gee, who could have expected that would happen? Embarrassing for them. Well...in following their AFDs in the storm runup, the office, or author, seemed a bit skeptical of the event. A lot of talk about SGZ and Omega non-alignment and also mix potential in So. Tier and NEPA into Catskills (which may play out but should be inconsequential to NY So. Tier). Up this way, the dendrite size has indeed been weak, until last few hours. But that was well forecast. I can't speak for you all to the south of SYR, or the BGM area as I am not there. The only real curious thing is the micro managing of Advisory vs. WSW's. Not sure if its a philosophy thing or just an individual's preference. This looked like a "set it and forget it" situation...6"...8"...close enough for government work. With the dryslot knocking on my back door soon I'm not sold on 10-14" and think the previous map looked good (up here). We'll see how the back end fills in. Looks reasonably promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 In other words, exactly the accums models have been showing for the past 5 days. Gee, who could have expected that would happen? Embarrassing for them. In all fairness, I'd have forecast just about the same as they had been all along. Very typical in these situations (Miller B for us to underperform vs. models than to reach the consensus....especially with the speed this is moving at, and the potential for some downsloping concerns off the Catskills into the lake plain. That said, we haven't verified anything yet, and if we do hit 10" (as a mean for CNY) then we will indeed have to give props to the qpf progs for this storm.....in the not too distant past, we can find examples of woefully inadequate qpf outputs vs. verification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Well...in following their AFDs in the storm runup, the office, or author, seemed a bit skeptical of the event. A lot of talk about SGZ and Omega non-alignment and also mix potential in So. Tier and NEPA into Catskills (which may play out but should be inconsequential to NY So. Tier). Up this way, the dendrite size has indeed been weak, until last few hours. But that was well forecast. I can't speak for you all to the south of SYR, or the BGM area as I am not there. The only real curious thing is the micro managing of Advisory vs. WSW's. Not sure if its a philosophy thing or just an individual's preference. This looked like a "set it and forget it" situation...6"...8"...close enough for government work. With the dryslot knocking on my back door soon I'm not sold on 10-14" and thing the previous map looked good (up here). We'll see how the back end fills in. Looks reasonably promising. I agree that 10-14 is a little too optimistic. A general 8-10 should have been put out for all of their NY counties. Although the approaching comma head could have some nice bursts of snow to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Pouring snow here now with 5" new today. Some real nice returns in northeast PA look to be heading this way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 In all fairness, I'd have forecast just about the same as they had been all along. Very typical in these situations (Miller B for us to underperform vs. models than to reach the consensus....especially with the speed this is moving at, and the potential for some downsloping concerns off the Catskills into the lake plain. That said, we haven't verified anything yet, and if we do hit 10" (as a mean for CNY) then we will indeed have to give props to the qpf progs for this storm.....in the not too distant past, we can find examples of woefully inadequate qpf outputs vs. verification... I'm usually pessimistic for storms like this as well, but the consistency of every model in putting out 6"+ across just about all of upstate NY finally swayed me by Thursday evening. Had every model been badly wrong and everyone gotten a general 4-6 like BGM was forecasting, I'm not sure that I could have taken the former seriously for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 In all fairness, I'd have forecast just about the same as they had been all along. Very typical in these situations (Miller B for us to underperform vs. models than to reach the consensus....especially with the speed this is moving at, and the potential for some downsloping concerns off the Catskills into the lake plain. That said, we haven't verified anything yet, and if we do hit 10" (as a mean for CNY) then we will indeed have to give props to the qpf progs for this storm.....in the not too distant past, we can find examples of woefully inadequate qpf outputs vs. verification... I am tempted to do an observation at 11pm...accum and liquid equivalent. I think that's legal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 nice size fluffly dendrites in this latest batch of snow in the weak comma head of the primary. Should accumulate considerably better than the pure "sugary" warm advection snow we had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice front there in Western/CNY...30 in DSV and 16 in BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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