Leelee Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Around 4 inches here. Not a bad day. Chris was likely displeased with his 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Around 4 inches here. Not a bad day. Chris was likely displeased with his 1.2 C from P is worried about how his basement will flood from the upcoming warmup haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here is the 60hr total for the upcoming weekend storm per the 0z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That Lake effect band died on the way back south through here. Still picked up a good amount though, but nothing compared to 5 miles south of here the last 2 days. 20 inches difference in just 5 miles! All the models have increased QPF with the system on Saturday. Might be a little more than originally expected, but as we know bust potential is high with the storm off the coast becoming the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What did you record that with because it is awful small on my computer, but when I watch on my iPhone it fits the screen perfectly. Excellent video nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What did you record that with because it is awful small on my computer, but when I watch on my iPhone it fits the screen perfectly. Excellent video nonetheless. yep iphone 4s,i'm getting a gopro camera so it shouldn't be small like this next time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...RUSHFORD 8.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...PERRYSBURG 41.0 900 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTERLITTLE VALLEY 24.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS...ERIE COUNTY...COLDEN 44.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSWALES CENTER 33.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVERBOSTON 31.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSGLENWOOD 31.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSEAST AURORA 20.0 700 AM 12/13 NWS EMPLOYEENY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.7 700 AM 12/13 ASOS...GENESEE COUNTY...BATAVIA 11.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...CONSTABLEVILLE 56.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSGLENFIELD 42.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSHIGHMARKET 42.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVERLOWVILLE 32.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVERCROGHAN 17.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...MOUNT MORRIS 10.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER...OSWEGO COUNTY...REDFIELD 58.0 700 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTERLACONA 33.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSBENNETTS BRIDGE 28.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVERPULASKI 22.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS...WYOMING COUNTY...VARYSBURG 37.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHSWARSAW 34.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVERSILVER SPRINGS 21.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER$ZAFF/AR/THOMAS Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... RUSHFORD 8.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... PERRYSBURG 41.0 900 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER LITTLE VALLEY 24.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS ...ERIE COUNTY... COLDEN 44.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS WALES CENTER 33.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER BOSTON 31.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS GLENWOOD 31.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS EAST AURORA 20.0 700 AM 12/13 NWS EMPLOYEE NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.7 700 AM 12/13 ASOS ...GENESEE COUNTY... BATAVIA 11.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS ...LEWIS COUNTY... CONSTABLEVILLE 56.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS GLENFIELD 42.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS HIGHMARKET 42.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER LOWVILLE 32.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER CROGHAN 17.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... MOUNT MORRIS 10.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... REDFIELD 58.0 700 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER LACONA 33.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS BENNETTS BRIDGE 28.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER PULASKI 22.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS ...WYOMING COUNTY... VARYSBURG 37.0 700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS WARSAW 34.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER SILVER SPRINGS 21.0 700 AM 12/13 CO-OP OBSERVER $ ZAFF/AR/THOMAS Wow! Redfield cashing in like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Redfield cashing in like always Ha, never fails. I was really impressed with some of the totals off of Lake Erie as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Has been snowing all morning here, nice little surprise! Just measured another 3 inches since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Has been snowing all morning here, nice little surprise! i'm waiting for that band to drop southward quick 1-3" bonus snowfall is not bad at all even though it's nothing compared to what colden got though haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 There's some decent GOM moisture getting pulled north for tomorrows system. Hoping to see some light northerly streamers from the lake for a short time to get an additional fluffy inch or two. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Proud to call the Tug my home:) http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2013/12/snowburst_lake_effect_shifting_south_winter_storm_watch_for_the_weekend.html#incart_river_default Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Pedestrian: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-140445- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0019.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY...WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. * TIMING...EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 NYZ006>008-140445- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0019.131214T1900Z-131215T1500Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ HITCHCOCK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 NYZ012-085-140445- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0010.000000T0000Z-131214T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0019.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. * TIMING AND HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A GENERAL SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 NYZ019-020-140445- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0010.000000T0000Z-131214T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0019.131214T0700Z-131215T1100Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. * TIMING AND HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A GENERAL SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 NYZ021-140445- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0019.131214T0700Z-131215T1100Z/ ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE 339 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALLEGANY COUNTY. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH OVERNIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 322 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 NYZ018-142030- /O.EXP.KBGM.LE.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-131213T2000Z/ /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0003.131214T1100Z-131215T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.131214T1200Z-131215T1200Z/ ONONDAGA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SYRACUSE 322 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA COUNTY. * HAZARDS...MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS. * WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow. Not a single model in the last 4 days showing less than 6" of snow in Ithaca and Binghamton gives us an advisory for 4-6? Pathetic. Zero support for their forecast, beyond an analog from January 2011 where the jackpot zones for this storm got 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow. Not a single model in the last 4 days showing less than 6" of snow in Ithaca and Binghamton gives us an advisory for 4-6? Pathetic. Zero support for their forecast, beyond an analog from January 2011 where the jackpot zones for this storm got 5 inches. But at least we're getting some "bonus" snow already ahead of the main show. Didn't expect it to be that snowy all day. Looks like about 2 inches here since the morning already with continued light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BGM WFO definitely taking the "under" on this next storm. 4-6" for KSYR looks a tad low based on qpf fields, though these are among the most unreliable of the various NWP outputs. FWIW, a quick eyeball of NWP shows both NAM and GFS 12Z spit out about 0.7" liquid at KSYR for the storm. That's about 8.5" at 12:1. Given today's hype machine world, I'm surprised BGM hasn't jumped on the WSW bandwagon. I will say KBGM has been pretty good w/ LES for No. Onondaga county this week (5" on my snowboard and maybe another 3/4" since noon, total of 8" IMBY for the entire event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 But at least we're getting some "bonus" snow already ahead of the main show. Didn't expect it to be that snowy all day. Looks like about 2 inches here since the morning already with continued light snow. Yes, the snow "showers" for today definitely overperformed. If nothing else, virga won't be a problem with this storm. Where in Ithaca are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 BGM WFO definitely taking the "under" on this next storm. 4-6" for KSYR looks a tad low based on qpf fields, though these are among the most unreliable of the various NWP outputs. FWIW, a quick eyeball of NWP shows both NAM and GFS 12Z spit out about 0.7" liquid at KSYR for the storm. That's about 8.5" at 12:1. Given today's hype machine world, I'm surprised BGM hasn't jumped on the WSW bandwagon. I will say KBGM has been pretty good w/ LES for No. Onondaga county this week (5" on my snowboard and maybe another 3/4" since noon, total of 8" IMBY for the entire event). I've never seen such model consistency for our region for a winter storm(different story near I-95). Since Monday it's been a general 6-8 across nearly the entirety of upstate NY, with 10-12 inch lollipops. I get taking the under since that's what I usually do, but there's almost always at least one dissenting model which I can hang my hat on. What's really crazy is putting even the Catskills under a WWA, there's no way they get less than 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd go 6-10" for Niagara Frontier. I think 4-7" is a touch too low. Snowgrowth is excellent, modeled qpf is somwhere between 0.55 (euro) and 0.75" (NAM). The number CIPS analog is Dec 15, 2007...an event where BUF saw 12" and Lockport saw 18". (That shortwave was considerably stronger than this one, though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've never seen such model consistency for our region for a winter storm(different story near I-95). Since Monday it's been a general 6-8 across nearly the entirety of upstate NY, with 10-12 inch lollipops. I get taking the under since that's what I usually do, but there's almost always at least one dissenting model which I can hang my hat on. What's really crazy is putting even the Catskills under a WWA, there's no way they get less than 8". That's a good point, model consistency has been "unusually" good w/ this system the past few days for New York state. BGM's AFD has had this nugget buried in it regarding this storm, the past day or so... "MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SNOW GROWTH REGION NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OR LIFT IMPLYING A LOWERSNOW/LIQUID RATIO." Perhaps this is why they are lowballing a bit. I haven't looked close enough to see if that's still indicated on NWP. Perhaps also the double barrel structure of the system is concerning, we've seen cases where the primary hangs on too long and some interior areas between the sfc lows get semi-dryslotted. I don't really see that here but its out there as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's a good point, model consistency has been "unusually" good w/ this system the past few days for New York state. BGM's AFD has had this nugget buried in it regarding this storm, the past day or so... "MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SNOW GROWTH REGION NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OR LIFT IMPLYING A LOWERSNOW/LIQUID RATIO." Perhaps this is why they are lowballing a bit. I haven't looked close enough to see if that's still indicated on NWP. Perhaps also the double barrel structure of the system is concerning, we've seen cases where the primary hangs on too long and some interior areas between the sfc lows get semi-dryslotted. I don't really see that here but its out there as a possibility. I could see us getting "bit" a bit by an earlier dry slot/qpf cutoff....esp. with a stronger "zombie" primary. As a matter of fact, it would not surprise me at all to see a few shallow warm layers providing some pingers late Sat. night before the secondary takes off. I think SYR sees 6"....but not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yes, the snow "showers" for today definitely overperformed. If nothing else, virga won't be a problem with this storm. Where in Ithaca are you? and it's still snowing... guessing we got close to 4 inches by now. I'm on the west side of the lake at about 1,000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 KBUF also thinks the QPF is overdone and mentioned earlier it depends how early the transfer is to the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 KBUF also thinks the QPF is overdone and mentioned earlier it depends how early the transfer is to the second low. Yes, for you guys and gals in the western part of the state, the speed of transfer will impact you more, as forcing/lift may diminish rates out your way. Over CNY, we may benefit from better placement/location relative to the strengthening 700 and 850 height fields...long enough to buffer any rapid negative effects from llv forcing from the secondary deepening. I'm a little worried about a stronger primary...we (W. and CNY) can and have get/been screwed by llv warm layers that crash our ratios, and sometimes, turn us over to a small flake/drizzly pile of crap. Let's hope my concerns are just paranoia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The new NAM is juicy for CNY. Wow! Picked up 5" in Phoenix this morning in about 2.5 hours. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The new NAM is juicy for CNY. Wow! Picked up 5" in Phoenix this morning in about 2.5 hours. Nice. Yeah, our area via the NAM is solidly into 1" of qpf.....even shaving off 40% gets us .6....and at 12 or so to 1 we are looking at a solid 7-8". If GFS trends a bit wetter than it has, I'd look for the NWS offices to entertain upgrading to WSW's for CNY counties. Otherwise, it's probably the NAM just being the NAM 18 hours before a storm!' We've seen this dog and pony show before....like clockwork!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snow just wrapping up here, about 3 inches of the most powdery snow I've ever seen. Very pretty to look at. And the NAM indeed just spat out a foot of snow for just about all of CNY(not including the bonus snow from today). Rest of the 0z suite will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I actually thought Binghamton would of done the WSWatch for us. You guys are the pros but what I am seeing says it could rip for a bit tomorrow night with 1" per rates with a decent east southeast wind. Thinking of the trhuway corridor down the Mohawk. Travel may be tough around here after 9 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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