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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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The advisory has been raised to a WARNING for northern Erie for 6-12 inches mainly in the eastern and nearby southtowns. Channel 4's in house model this AM has the band reaching the city for several hours. The warning for southern Erie also had the totals upped for an additional 10-20″.

 

 

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED FOR THE BUFFALO METRO

AREA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

DISORGANIZED...MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN

ERIE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE COURSE

OF THE DAY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MODERATE TO

HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STEADIEST...HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS

HAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK AND EAST AURORA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM...

THEN WILL APPROACH DOWNTOWN BUFFALO FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THIS

WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE

ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR THIS SCENARIO BEFORE LEAVING FOR THEIR

DAYTIME ACTIVITIES. THERE WILL EVEN BE THE CHANCE THAT AIR TRAVEL

WILL BE AFFECTED AT THE BUFFALO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THIS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS OF 10 TO 20

MPH WITH WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSE TO ZERO.

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Band is definitely going to make it farther north than yesterday by observing recent radar trends. How intense it will be will be the question. However the NWS seems to indicate it will be just as intense or maybe more than yesterdays in latest special weather statement. 

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INTENSIFYTHROUGH THE NOON HOUR. THIS DEVELOPING BAND EXTENDED FROMDUNKIRK...TO BOSTON...TO WALES AT 10 AM...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFTNORTH...INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTH TOWNS. SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTEDINCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SILVER CREEK...EDEN...HAMBURG...EAST AURORA...ORCHARD PARK...MARILLA AND ATTICA.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE WILL BELIKELY...ALONG WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH RESULTINGIN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND VISIBILITIES DOWNTO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATEON ROADS QUICKLY RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS. THIS WILL PRODUCEDANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE THESE AREAS...INCLUDINGALONG INTERSTATE 90 FROM BROCTON TO DERBY.THE STEADIEST...HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSSHAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK AND EAST AURORA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM...THEN WILL APPROACH DOWNTOWN BUFFALO FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THISWILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS AREADVISED TO PREPARE FOR THIS SCENARIO BEFORE LEAVING FOR THEIRDAYTIME ACTIVITIES. THERE WILL EVEN BE THE CHANCE THAT AIR TRAVELWILL BE AFFECTED AT THE BUFFALO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
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... Lewis County... 
   1 NW Constableville 44.0 500 am 12/12 cocorahs 
   Constableville 35.3 333 am 12/12 co-op observer 
   Lowville 16.0 700 am 12/12 co-op observer 
   Beaver Falls 7.5 830 PM 12/11 social media 

... Livingston County... 
   4 WSW Dansville 2.7 700 am 12/12 cocorahs 

... Monroe County... 
   1 NW North Chili 6.1 700 am 12/12 cocorahs 
   Rochester Intl Arpt 4.6 700 am 12/12 ASOS 
   6 ESE Rochester 4.5 700 am 12/12 cocorahs 

... Ontario County... 
   Honeoye 6.0 830 am 12/12 co-op observer 
   Geneva 1.2 800 am 12/12 co-op observer 

... Oswego County... 
   Redfield 44.0 630 PM 12/11 social media 
   Bennetts bridge 20.0 700 am 12/12 co-op observer 
   Palermo 5.3 600 am 12/12 co-op observer 
   Minetto 5.0 700 am 12/12 cocorahs 
   5 ESE Oswego 5.0 700 am 12/12 cocorahs 
   Fulton 3.0 700 am 12/12 co-op observer 

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i think the band is trying to reorient itself on a 250 flow? 

 

Band is intensifying and organizing itself close to a 250 flow. Added lift is being provided now with the approaching shortwave. This radar shows that nicely. That band is going to be dropping rates from 2-3 inches per hour.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

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i think the band is trying to reorient itself on a 250 flow? 

 

Looks like a split band at the moment.  My guess would be the area in the middle (lackawana, west seneca, southern cheek) will cash in this evening.  Hard to see this getting much further north than the airport, which means I'll be able to just about smell the snow...

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Heaviest snow I've seen since Dec 2010 Lake Effect Storm. Over 3 inches per hour atm.

 

Looks like a split band at the moment.  My guess would be the area in the middle (lackawana, west seneca, southern cheek) will cash in this evening.  Hard to see this getting much further north than the airport, which means I'll be able to just about smell the snow...

Well the 12z nam had the winds back all the way to 245 so you might still be in play here. :snowing:

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My Forecast next few days.... Calling for 16-30 inches of new snow by Sunday! ^_^

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTFRIDAY......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAYTO 6 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN  PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.* TIMING AND HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY  MORNING. AN ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...6 TO 12 INCHES  TONIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2  TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AROUND 2 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
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