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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

lakeeffectkid383

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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The whole area. For the few storms earlier this fall, it was laughable comparing similar areas to the Binghamton map. And they contradict what they say in the discussions.

 

And the point n' clicks are another story. The NWS site can be quite confusing.

well keep in mind they are a bit broad brushed...so the area of heavy les accumulation will be larger and extend farther north and south than what actually occurs.  The amounts were actually underdone for southern erie last night for today.  

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Northern extent was from Blasdell north and east across Orchard Park.I have a feeling tomorrows will get well into West Seneca at least possibly even into the Metro. Going to be a close call.

yeah i'd think a few miles farther north than today.  It seems that the meso models do at least want to bring it into central Erie County for a few hours in the evening.  The models last night for today were trending the wrong way for BUF metro...some of the WRF runs from last night only brought the band into far southern Erie County.  

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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yeah i'd think a few miles farther north than today.  It seems that the meso models do at least want to bring it into central Erie County for a few hours in the evening.  The models last night for today were trending the wrong way for BUF metro...some of the WRF runs from last night only brought the band into far southern Erie County.  

 

Yeah I noticed that as well. Hopefully the same trend doesn't happen tomorrow so some of our northern friends can get in on the LES.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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in watertown we have nothing....they are quoting a deluge...laughable! no way way are we going to get the amounts the predtict.....

You guys up there are in the same boat like us,you need a perfect 250 flow off L.ontario to nail the city but you are right I tend to notice the nws puts up warnings for Watertown town area even though their not impacted. I guess it has to do with how NWS classifies which part is northern Jefferson county and which is southern just like how they do it with Erie county..

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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how much did you get today?  Lackawanna and south Buffalo have been in a bad spot the last two days...we got like 1/2" last night and maybe another 1/4" today lol. '

 

I do have a question for you though. Not sure if you can see the band from earlier today. But it seemed like the northern edge of the band was the strongest with a mile or 2 wide portion dropping 2-3 inches an hour. It hit here but didn't last long. Was that due to converging winds? I saw the winds coming from the W across most of Canada up into Buffalo and SW winds coming up from Cleveland into Erie. Can that convergence lead to a stronger band within a LES snowband?

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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I do have a question for you though. Not sure if you can see the band from earlier today. But it seemed like the northern edge of the band was the strongest with a mile or 2 wide portion dropping 2-3 inches an hour. It hit here but didn't last long. Was that due to converging winds? I saw the winds coming from the W across most of Canada up into Buffalo and SW winds coming up from Cleveland into Erie. Can that convergence lead to a stronger band within a LES snowband?

well...extra convergence can enhance the natural band circulation, and also, some bands can be a bit tilted with height...so that one side might be stronger than other.  Sometimes, you'll be under heavy echoes on the radar but the low-level winds are actually blowing the snow away from the edge of the radar band, so it won't be snowing heavily at your location...and vice versa.  On the southern shore of Lake Ontario, you'll see this especially, enhanced frictional and thermal convergence causes the southern edge of the band to be sharp and intense, like a wall, whereas the northern part of the band is a bit more diffuse.  

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Leelee

Leelee

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how far north did the band get today?  I worked from 6am to 2pm and I didn't have radar access.  

It was about Lake Avenue where the cutoff was pretty clear. I work at ECC South, and there were a few inches there. Always amazes me how sharp the cutoffs are with LES.

 

From Lackawanna to around the airport are the bare zones. Grass is fully visible here now.

 

The models last night for today were trending the wrong way for BUF metro...some of the WRF runs from last night only brought the band into far southern Erie County.

Unfortunately, the models have trended the wrong way for tomorrow, also. Until 12z runs yesterday, it showed the Metro getting socked and a solid WSW flow for ~6 hours.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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It was about Lake Avenue where the cutoff was pretty clear. I work at ECC South, and there were a few inches there. Always amazes me how sharp the cutoffs are with LES.

 

From Lackawanna to around the airport are the bare zones. Grass is fully visible here now.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the models have trended the wrong way for tomorrow, also. Until 12z runs yesterday, it showed the Metro getting socked and a solid WSW flow for ~6 hours.

 

The 0Z NAM has the band across the metro and the airport so far. Looks like the band is going to go about 10 miles more north in comparison to today. If the rest of the models today follow suite, the NWS will have to issue another LES Watch for Northern Erie as well.

 

nam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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You work tomorrow? Lets go chasing! We can pick up OSU and Leelee on the way. =) Well we might not have to chase at all tomorrow depending on wind direction. ^_^

Yes I do :/ i wish i could take off and just spend all day chasing the band but I cant. Btw, You ever get those snow tires on your car? If not, shoot me a text message and well set something up. Hopefully I can get outta work and the band will be sitting right over our houses so I don't have to chase at all :)
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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

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Hey all, I'm back after a long day on the road. Will be putting videos up tomorrow (taking a day off from chasing then heading back up on Friday).

I posted some pics to my Twitter account (link below), and I'll link the videos here when they're done.

http://twitter.com/markellinwood

The snow band over-performed even my expectation today, and my expectations were pretty high!

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Yes I do :/ i wish i could take off and just spend all day chasing the band but I cant. Btw, You ever get those snow tires on your car? If not, shoot me a text message and well set something up. Hopefully I can get outta work and the band will be sitting right over our houses so I don't have to chase at all :)

Get some nokian hakka's best winter tires I've owned so far.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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0z NAM looks nice! I want fluffy LES

 

NWS point n' click lowered me from 4-6 tomorrow night to 1-3 though lol

Don Pauls updated forecast has the southtowns with 9-12"+ of additional snowfall tomorrow through Friday. Then we have the storm to look forward to on saturday which could give us several more inches of snow. By the end of the weekend Boston/Colden will likely have 4 feet plus on the ground. Should make for some amazing skiing/snowboarding at Kissing Bridge!
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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Don Pauls updated forecast has the southtowns with 9-12"+ of additional snowfall tomorrow through Friday. Then we have the storm to look forward to on saturday which could give us several more inches of snow. By the end of the weekend Boston/Colden will likely have 4 feet plus on the ground. Should make for some amazing skiing/snowboarding at Kissing Bridge!

Meanwhile the grass is showing here in the city we need at least a coating to cover it up lol.. :lmao:

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Don Pauls updated forecast has the southtowns with 9-12"+ of additional snowfall tomorrow through Friday. Then we have the storm to look forward to on saturday which could give us several more inches of snow. By the end of the weekend Boston/Colden will likely have 4 feet plus on the ground. Should make for some amazing skiing/snowboarding at Kissing Bridge!

 

Think I might do some boarding this weekend, absolutely perfect conditions.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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Think I might do some boarding this weekend, absolutely perfect conditions.

do it. For the first time in a while, if I were you Id definitely hit up KB instead of HV. Conditions there this weekend will be epic. Between the snow they had on the ground already (roughly 12" according to them) the 2 feet they got last night and today, the next 1-2 feet likely on top of that by this weekend, and then with the snow machines pumping, they'll prob have a 5 foot base early next week!
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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Don Paul is calling for 2-4" through Friday in the Metro now, though. Nuts.

Although I think the models WIVB uses are initiated off the GFS, which is not showing much backing to WSW flow.

I like how BUF didn't even bother to update their short term/long term afd for today lol.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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New watches and warnings out, south of highway 90 calling for 4-7, hopefully you guys up north can cash in as well. 



...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM



EST FRIDAY...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT



SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST



FRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.



* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN



  PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.



* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY...3 TO 6 INCHES



  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM



  TOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.













...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO



1 AM EST FRIDAY...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT



SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM



EST FRIDAY.



* LOCATIONS...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA.



* TIMING...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.



* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY AND 2 TO 3 INCHES



  THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE



  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.







			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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New watches and warnings out, south of highway 90 calling for 4-7, hopefully you guys up north can cash in as well. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PMEST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM ESTFRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN  PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY...3 TO 6 INCHES  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM  TOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.


...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO1 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AMEST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA.* TIMING...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY AND 2 TO 3 INCHES  THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.




Lets hope so..



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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