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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


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How far north do you guys think will that band make it up to? 

 

 Not much farther than it is now. Tomorrow and Fridays possibilities look much better than todays for the metro and northern burbs. Not to mention the storm that the GFS and EURO have been consistenly hinting at for Saturday across all of the region. Might have Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall in that one as well.

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Had to run to Colden this morning via the 219 and it was by far the worst and scariest driving I have ever experienced. far worse than when I wrecked my car up on the Tug. Probably a foot or so in Colden but the snow must be falling easily 2" per hour. Back at work now in Cheektowaga there's a few breaks of sun peaking through the clouds.

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 Not much farther than it is now. Tomorrow and Fridays possibilities look much better than todays for the metro and northern burbs. Not to mention the storm that the GFS and EURO have been consistenly hinting at for Saturday across all of the region. Might have Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall in that one as well.

yeh latest AFD did mention significant synoptic snowstorm so will see. :santa:

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ALDEN TO WEST SENECA LINE.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES TODAY AND AN INCH OR LESS

TONIGHT.

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Pretty good storm going here, and it has the legs to go through Thursday. Boonville's clear, and Rte.12 (the 'low' road) is ok up to Lowville. The plume is between Leyden and Houseville latitudinally, and west of Rt.26 between Whetstone Gulf and the Mohawk State Forest is no-go country I'd imagine. Three feet in Constableville, I was told.   :sled:  

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The band off of Lake Erie has been remarkably well defined with a solid, narrow core. It appears as if the moisture through the boundary layer is bit greater over Lake Erie at the moment than Lake Ontario. However, moisture should start to increase over Lake Ontario and the band should become better organized over the lake.

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Beauty of a band off of Lake Erie...Evans, Concord, and Colden are getting it good.  Just not quite enough backing for BUF metro or even the more immediate southtowns.  At least I'll get to check out on Sunday when I'm down in Evans trap shooting.

 The Erie band is certainly overperforming wrt to the mesoscale models' output from yesterday, both from an intensity standpoint and a persistence standpoint (quasi stationary).

Certainly appears on radar to be giving the Ontario band a run for it's money!! :)

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Looks like a band off Lake Michigan or St. Clair that's crossing through Niagara county now. Cool.

 

18z NAM has the LES band tomorrow just a smidge north that puts S Buffalo tantalizingly on the edge. But, it still projects the current snow right over me, so who knows.

 

Are you getting in on this band? Got over 4 inches already here.

No. Nothing. About 10 miles too far north.

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We got 5 inches total here, 20 inches at my inlaws in south Eden on top of a hill.

 

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 21.0 423 PM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
DUNKIRK 5.0 315 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...ERIE COUNTY...
2 ENE COLDEN 24.0 400 PM 12/11 COCORAHS
NORTH COLLINS 21.0 430 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
EAST AURORA 16.0 400 PM 12/11 PUBLIC

...LEWIS COUNTY...
LOWVILLE 24.0 320 PM 12/11 PUBLIC
TURIN 22.0 300 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
REDFIELD 36.0 221 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
3 E VARYSBURG 25.0 300 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
6 SW WARSAW 20.0 450 PM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER


**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK


...LEWIS COUNTY...
PORT LEYDEN 15.0 333 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
1 N WETHERSFIELD 21.0 300 PM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER
GAINESVILLE 18.0 1213 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

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I tried to chase the band but i got stuck on the 190 :devilsmiley: ..Does anybody know why this map is showing 10-14" for BUF metro area?

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

The band is going to drift north tomorrow afternoon and possibly hit the metro as it intensifies. It than travels north on Friday as well. The intensity of the band is still up in the air but I still think at least central Erie county will get hit from this.

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The band is going to drift north tomorrow afternoon and possibly hit the metro as it intensifies. It than travels north on Friday as well. The intensity of the band is still up in the air but I still think at least central Erie county will get hit from this.

Here is their zone forecast for Northern erie.. they didnt even bother to update their short term AFD lol :snowing:

 

 

 

Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the morning...then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Additional accumulation 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent snows. Cold with highs 15 to 20. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 

Thursday Night: Lake effect snow. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional accumulation 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent snows. Cold with lows 10 to 15. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 

Friday: Areas of blowing snow in the morning. Lake effect snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Cold with highs in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 

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Some impressive totals coming in from spotters! 

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN PRODUCE EXTREMELY VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS
FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION WITH SOME TOWNS RECEIVING A TRACE
AND NEIGHBORING TOWNS RECEIVING FEET OF SNOW. HERE ARE SOME
RECENT AMOUNTS THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 21.0 423 PM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
DUNKIRK 5.0 315 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...ERIE COUNTY...
2 ENE COLDEN 24.0 400 PM 12/11 COCORAHS
NORTH COLLINS 21.0 430 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
EAST AURORA 16.0 400 PM 12/11 PUBLIC

...LEWIS COUNTY...
LOWVILLE 24.0 320 PM 12/11 PUBLIC
TURIN 22.0 300 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
REDFIELD 36.0 221 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
3 E VARYSBURG 25.0 300 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
6 SW WARSAW 20.0 450 PM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER
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Additonal snowfall expected:

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

 

 

Some storm totals so far from this event:

 

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
PERRYSBURG 21.0 423 PM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
DUNKIRK 5.0 315 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...ERIE COUNTY...
2 ENE COLDEN 24.0 400 PM 12/11 COCORAHS
NORTH COLLINS 21.0 430 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
EAST AURORA 16.0 400 PM 12/11 PUBLIC

...LEWIS COUNTY...
LOWVILLE 24.0 320 PM 12/11 PUBLIC
TURIN 22.0 300 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
REDFIELD 36.0 221 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
3 E VARYSBURG 25.0 300 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA
6 SW WARSAW 20.0 450 PM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER


**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK


...LEWIS COUNTY...
PORT LEYDEN 15.0 333 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
1 N WETHERSFIELD 21.0 300 PM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER
GAINESVILLE 18.0 1213 PM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA

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for you specifically or for the whole geographical area?

The whole area. For the few storms earlier this fall, it was laughable comparing similar areas to the Binghamton map. And they contradict what they say in the discussions.

 

And the point n' clicks are another story. The NWS site can be quite confusing.

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in watertown we have nothing....they are quoting a deluge...laughable! no way way are we going to get the amounts the predtict.....

 

The whole area. For the few storms earlier this fall, it was laughable comparing similar areas to the Binghamton map. And they contradict what they say in the discussions.

 

And the point n' clicks are another story. The NWS site can be quite confusing.

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