OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Btw, that whole north of the upper level jet thing is from Dave Aichorn, who used to the chief met at WSYR in Syracuse and taught advanced forecasting at SUNY Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Btw, that whole north of the upper level jet thing is from Dave Aichorn, who used to the chief met at WSYR in Syracuse and taught advanced forecasting at SUNY Oswego. Dave is a really knowledgeable met. He went storm chasing with us this past summer and taught us quite a few things about severe weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For anybody that cares Dave Eicorn is returning to 9wsyr the first of the year. Chris Brandolino is moving to New Zealand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 does not suck. Keep in mind the NAM has two periods of heavy LES for BUF metro, one Tuesday evening and the other on Wedesday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I want to thank OSU and Heavy for this high level reasoning behind LES. Thanks so much guys! I learn so much from this forum. You think someone gets 2 feet out of this in the Southern Tier and 3 feet off of Lake Ontario? I would be happy with 6 inches here in Hamburg. Be cool just to see some good lake effect snow finally, its been forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 In the more immediate future, it looks like there is a nice mesoscale snowband setting up zonally across a large portion of NY tonight. Could drop a quick inch when otherwise this event wouldn't put much of a dent in the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 does not suck. Keep in mind the NAM has two periods of heavy LES for BUF metro, one Tuesday evening and the other on Wedesday afternoon/evening. Was just looking at the 0z nam bufkit data nd it has been pretty consistent in showing the LES impacting the metro area during those timeframes but reading the latest AFD out of BUF they think it's an outlier at this point,let's hope the rest of 0z suite follows the nam..also that wrf model out of BTV had the band setup just south of downtown way different than what the nam is showing for placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not getting my hopes up thinking the NAM with its usual copious QPF will be right. If I get 3" here, I'll be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 AFD from BUF: THE WEATHER FOCUS AND HEADLINE STEALER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEKREMAINS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ON TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES WHICH SHOULD TAME THE LAKE EFFECT. DESPITE FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS /-15C TO -17C/ CROSSING THE LAKES...THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SYNOPTIC LIFT AND KEEP OVER-LAKE INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 10KFT MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY DISORGANIZED SNOW BANDS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN TWO INCHES. THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED OUT IN THE 20S. FORECAST MODELS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS RAMPING UP TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER WILL BOOST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR WELL ORGANIZED LAKE SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP. INITIALLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL FOCUS LAKE BANDS FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN THEN AS THE LOW QUICKLY PASSES EAST OF NEW YORK WIND WILL VEER BACK TO WESTERLY SETTLING SNOW BAND BACK TOWARD THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS REGIONS EAST OF THE LAKES. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PLAN VIEWS SHOW OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AND LIFT MAY RELAX SOME DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TO THE SNOW BANDS BEFORE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BRING DOWN A BLAST OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BOOST TO THE LAKE BANDS. WINDS MAY AGAIN BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH LIFTING LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD THEN QUICKLY SETTLE BACK SOUTH UNDER A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW 850MB WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD DROP LAKE SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SNOW BELT AREAS WITH CHANCES OF SNOW INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE SHORES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF THE LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COUNTIES INCLUDE SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND FOR OSWEGO/JEFFERSON/LEWIS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LAKE SNOWS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD FOR A TIME LATER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AREAS. BASED ON CONSISTENCY BETWEEN 08/12Z AND 09/00Z RUNS HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT DUE TO THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY IN RESIDENCE TIME HAVE LEFT NORTHERN ERIE OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AND WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE DRIVEN BY THE PASSING CLIPPER OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY WEDNESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING TO THE 5-15 RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think BUF metro may see a several hour burst of snow late this afternoon, corresponding to the later portion of rush hour. Same may take place sometime tomorrow evening in Buffalo, as next s/w approaches. E. of Ontario may not really get going until very late tonight or tomorrow morning, and band will be fairly transient until tomorrow afternoon. Look for a foot or more to fall south of Buffalo over the course of the next 2 days...and upwards of 2 feet around the Montegue area...give or take 7 miles, over the next 2 days....then action would appear to shift to the ski areas off Erie, and in the vicinity of SYR by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 302 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 NYZ006>008-100415- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0012.131210T2300Z-131212T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.131210T2300Z-131212T0900Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 302 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCHES WEDNESDAY...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 302 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 NYZ012-019-020-085-100415- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0012.131210T2300Z-131212T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.131210T2300Z-131212T0900Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 302 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LES Advisory for Northern Erie, as well. 3-5 for the Southtowns possibly. Please get the 3" to the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That map includes Wednesday by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm in the 10-14 in that picture, wish me luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And Buffaloweather, I was perhaps a bit too hasty on dismissing the potential for another shortwave to lift a band back towards the city after the onset of the event. I'm not saying it will happen on Wednesday, but there's at least a reasonable chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm in the 10-14 in that picture, wish me luck! I believe Hamburg and Orchard Park are included in Southern Erie County so you are in the warning, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I believe Hamburg and Orchard Park are included in Southern Erie County so you are in the warning, barely. I'm 4-5 miles Northeast of Eden, and well within the 10-14 according to that graphic. Would be happy with 6-8 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And Buffaloweather, I was perhaps a bit too hasty on dismissing the potential for another shortwave to lift a band back towards the city after the onset of the event. I'm not saying it will happen on Wednesday, but there's at least a reasonable chance. Yeah I noticed that in the models the last few days as well. More recently the northward progression has not been as far as it was earlier. Maybe it won't make it up to the city for a second time, but it should be close. Most events like these become now casting events anyways, should be a fun one to watch unfold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah I noticed that in the models the last few days as well. More recently the northward progression has not been as far as it was earlier. Maybe it won't make it up to the city for a second time, but it should be close. Most events like these become now casting events anyways, should be a fun one to watch unfold!should definitely be a fun event to watch, heres hoping for 6"+ for you and I. Looks like after this lake effect event we might be able to pull out another 6" this weekend from a synoptic system. Lets keep this active weather pattern up and get me to 30+" for the season before Christmas (at 18.7" as of this morning) ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For the E. Lake Ontario area, this is a meaty model output! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 should definitely be a fun event to watch, heres hoping for 6"+ for you and I. Looks like after this lake effect event we might be able to pull out another 6" this weekend from a synoptic system. Lets keep this active weather pattern up and get me to 30+" for the season before Christmas (at 18.7" as of this morning) ! Were chasing this one if its in Springville, I'll drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Were chasing this one if its in Springville, I'll drive. Heh I love Devin's snow optimism That NWS map has me clearly in 6-8 zone. Using the usual .5 method with the BUF office, 3-5 would still be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Somewhat disconcerting for those from BUF northward is the tendency for an increasing anafrontal wave snow event for the east coast. The lead shortwave tomorrow passing from PA through SNE "steals" some of the ability for our shortwave to back the flow all the way to 245-250. The 00z NAM BUFKIT and from the looks of it the 00z GFS only backs the flow to 255-260 before it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Somewhat disconcerting for those from BUF northward is the tendency for an increasing anafrontal wave snow event for the east coast. The lead shortwave tomorrow passing from PA through SNE "steals" some of the ability for our shortwave to back the flow all the way to 245-250. The 00z NAM BUFKIT and from the looks of it the 00z GFS only backs the flow to 255-260 before it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WARSAW…JAMESTOWN…OLEAN… ORCHARD PARK…SPRINGVILLE 409 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 …LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY… * LOCATIONS…SOUTHERN ERIE…WYOMING…CHAUTAUQUA…AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING…EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS…3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT…4 TO 8 INCHES WEDNESDAY…AND 4 TO 7 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT…LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 19 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS…WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Were chasing this one if its in Springville, I'll drive. Im definitely down lol. Springville will likely be "ground zero" for this event. Would not be surprised at all if they ended up with 24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty healthy looking band off of Lake Ontario with reflectivity echoes increasing in the past several radar frames. Also interesting to note how wide it is even over the lake without any upslope component which normally spreads the precipitation out over a wider area once the band hits the sloping terrain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Already snowing here, large fluffy flakes! yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Already snowing here, large fluffy flakes! yay! Yeah, actually the band south of Buffalo has also intensified in the past few radar frames as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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