Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,597
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DAinDC
    Newest Member
    DAinDC
    Joined

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall


Recommended Posts

Well folks its that time of the year again. Us youngsters head back to school, the leaves begin to change, and we all pull out the hoodies and sweatpants. It is now September first and meteorological fall is upon us even though this year right now it doesn't feel like it with temps in the 80s with high humidity. Soon the weather should be cooling down and the autumn chill will be upon us!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It looks like those radar echoes over Sylvan Beach yesterday were indicative of some pretty large hail. Impressive. 

 

 

2103 200 SYLVAN BEACH ONEIDA NY 4321 7573 PICTURE POSTED TO JILL REALES FACEBOOK PAGE VIA WKTV-TV. ESTIMATED BY PICTURE TO BE AT LEAST 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. (BGM)
post-533-0-89208700-1378202423_thumb.jpg
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very cool picture.

And the others were not too bad either. <_<

I'm looking forward to the 30's forecast for Thursday night.

ill be camping at Allegany State Park from Thursday through Sunday and I know Thursday night into Friday morning it should drop AT LEAST into the mid 30s with frost in the forecast according to the NWS. ❄⛄
Link to comment
Share on other sites

000

SXUS71 KBUF 212036

RERBUF

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

434 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT BUFFALO NY...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.71 INCHES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY. THIS

BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.49 SET IN 1992. RAIN IS STILL FALLING AT

THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...SO THE FINAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE A BIT

HIGHER. A FINAL STATEMENT WILL BE SENT OUT WHEN THE RAIN COMES TO AN

END.

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I'll take a dram of whatever you're on! LOL

you will see wise grasshopper.. Winter will come to stay in Nov. this year. I'm rooting on the impossible.....3 plowable snowstorms in 3 yrs. before Halloween an hour north of the GWB. Me thinks a lot of action slides south of Glens Falls this winter.....too cold/dry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

you will see wise grasshopper.. Winter will come to stay in Nov. this year. I'm rooting on the impossible.....3 plowable snowstorms in 3 yrs. before Halloween an hour north of the GWB. Me thinks a lot of action slides south of Glens Falls this winter.....too cold/dry.

And the Phantoms still suck..maybe once they leave we'll get some good winter weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And the Phantoms still suck..maybe once they leave we'll get some good winter weather.

If they were good they would have been gone already LoL. Allentown not in a rush to get these bums into a half a billion dollar stadium built for them. You will see the prospects that show up on that team all of a sudden as soon as they leave. I gave up my season tix last year. I may go see them a few times in Allentown on my way to PA Dutch Country. Need my semi-annual Good N Plenty fix.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

NWS BUF AFD

WHILE IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO PUT MUCH CONFIDENCE INTO THE DETAILS OF

ANY OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES…THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE

ENSEMBLES THAT THE GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY

NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT SOME MEASUREABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR

SELECT SITES WITHIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. IT WOULD NOT TAKE

MUCH TO THROW A WRENCH INTO THIS EARLY SEASON SCENARIO THOUGH…SO

WILL LEAVE IT FOR NOW AS AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION PIECE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS BUF AFD

WHILE IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO PUT MUCH CONFIDENCE INTO THE DETAILS OF

ANY OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES…THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE

ENSEMBLES THAT THE GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY

NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT SOME MEASUREABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR

SELECT SITES WITHIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. IT WOULD NOT TAKE

MUCH TO THROW A WRENCH INTO THIS EARLY SEASON SCENARIO THOUGH…SO

WILL LEAVE IT FOR NOW AS AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION PIECE.

 

Definitely a possibility, especially over the higher terrain with the Euro bring 850 mb temps to around -5C. The pattern going forward may have some potential as well. The 12z control run of the Euro ensemble was quite cold for the longer range as favorable blocking persists around the west coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS BUF AFD

THE MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE

AIR OVER THE LOWER LAKES…WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS WILL LIKELY

EXCEED 20K FT. THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT

NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES…WHERE IF ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME

TOGETHER…AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE

QUESTION.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES SATURDAY EVENING…A WELL ALIGNED

SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS

FROM LAKE ERIE AND THE IAG FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO

REGION. THE SYNOPTIC RAINS WILL TAPER OFF ELSEWHERE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS BUF AFD

THE MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE

AIR OVER THE LOWER LAKES…WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS WILL LIKELY

EXCEED 20K FT. THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT

NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES…WHERE IF ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME

TOGETHER…AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE

QUESTION.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES SATURDAY EVENING…A WELL ALIGNED

SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS

FROM LAKE ERIE AND THE IAG FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO

REGION. THE SYNOPTIC RAINS WILL TAPER OFF ELSEWHERE.

 

Figures...We get the perfect ingredients for us to get hit and it ends up being rain....Watch the rest of this years Lake Effect Snow events will have a W/NW flow. ^_^

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS BUF AFD

BASED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MODEL GUIDANCE…ANALOGS TO PRIOR WEATHER EVENTS SHOW CLOSE SIMILARITY TO A LAKE SNOW EVENT IN EARLY NOVEMBER OF 2006 OR A LAKE EVENT IN EARLY OCTOBER OF 2003. BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES EVEN COLDER BY FRIDAY MORNING…SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS BUF AFD

BASED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MODEL GUIDANCE…ANALOGS TO PRIOR WEATHER EVENTS SHOW CLOSE SIMILARITY TO A LAKE SNOW EVENT IN EARLY NOVEMBER OF 2006 OR A LAKE EVENT IN EARLY OCTOBER OF 2003. BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES EVEN COLDER BY FRIDAY MORNING…SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

 

WSW/SW winds for 3 straight rain events and as soon as the cold air hits the winds will be NW/WNW....FIGURES... =/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...