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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

HurricaneJosh

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jconsor

jconsor

Posted
Posted

Based on current trends with the vorticity centers moving closer together and the favorable upper pattern/outflow evident on satellite, as well as 97L's turn to the NNW in the past 12 hours, I'm thinking Hispaniola will not be a significant issue and we'll likely see TD status by Fri (possibly as early as Thu).  The full merger will likely wait til Fri-Sat.

 

I'm not buying the GFS keeping the two vorts separate.  It did the same with a vort on the north side of 95L in the Gulf a few weeks ago and didn't verify.  It also has little support from other reliable guidance now - even the Euro shows the vorts gradually merging, though the full merger takes until Sun-Mon to complete. 

 

UKMET has been handling the system the best past few days IMHO.  It also tends to have least run-to-run shifts of any global model re: the upper level pattern, which can sometimes be a negative but in this case should be a benefit.

 

Any speculation that these two vortical towers merge?

 

vis_lalo-animated.gif

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jconsor

jconsor

Posted
Posted

LOL.  Josh - I can definitely relate to your wanting to break any record - even an ignominious one - in this pitiful season. 

 

The best chance of a hurricane by Sep 11 may well be the underdog - 97L.  But its best chance to reach hurricane status would be while it is recurving - this depends on it getting organized quickly near the Turks and Caicos.

 

Kill it!!  I totally hope it dies.  I want to break the 11 Sep record.  Just one more week to go.  We might as well have fun with this.   B)

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Mike.Ventrice

Mike.Ventrice

Posted
Posted

Can you track in observations where the massive AEW coming off West Africa in the next 4-5 days is coming from? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/u850/total/africa.html

 

I think I may have jumped the gun here- I'm begging to see some signs! Ok lets start with South America. According to Kyle Griffin's real-time maps, an extra-tropical trough has just passed across the southern tip of South America. This trough passage has forced cold air to flow down the lee of the Andes over the past few days... which is now approaching the tropics. This is a genesis pattern conducive for the genesis of a convectively-coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (see Liebmann et al. 2001). When the cold air (and consequently pressure surge) reaches the deep tropics, it often forms convection near the equator that then transfers energy into the eastward propagating CCKW. You can also track increased precipitation propagating northward down the lee of the Andes in the lat-time plot below:

 

SAmerica.total.30.285E-315E.gif

 

If a CCKW develops, it could give some merit to what the GFS and Euro forecasts have been showing over the MDR in 5-6 days. You can see some signs of this CCKW development in my-space time filtered time-longitude plots but note that the filter is yet to pick up on the signal itself (bi-product of using analyses + forecast).  

 

vp200.GFS.anom.KELVIN.5S-5N.png

 

 

I'm thinking with time, we'll start to see this CCKW develop in the GFS forecast more robustly. Again, this is just the intraseasonal side of the spectrum. Who knows what's causing the low-frequency suppressed state in the deep tropics, with increased vertical motion across the mid-lats... ;)

 

 

NOTE that my CCKW real-time phase-space product also suggesting a new CCKW to pass the MDR in upcoming 4-6 days.

filterKELVIN_vp_Phase.png

 

Composite:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/documents/Kelvin_VP200_JAS.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Secrets... :-P

Way too many smilies going back and forth.

 

If the theory is global warming is involved, I'd like to think it'd take more than a decade from 2004, 2005 and 2008 to a massive slowdown of the Atlantic tropics.  When I see things that suggest Hadley cells being displaced, I assume people are talking climate change.  I don't do that forum.  I'm not even banned there, but too many arguments.

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Mike.Ventrice

Mike.Ventrice

Posted
Posted

Way too many smilies going back and forth.

 

If the theory is global warming is involved, I'd like to think it'd take more than a decade from 2004, 2005 and 2008 to a massive slowdown of the Atlantic tropics.  When I see things that suggest Hadley cells being displaced, I assume people are talking climate change.  I don't do that forum.  I'm not even banned there, but too many arguments.

 

Nah it hasn't anything to do with climate change. I stay out of these discussions too. I want to share the research that may give small** suggestions why we are seeing global TC activity lower than average.. but I know my job wouldn't be happy with me :( There are hypotheses floating around out there though that focus on strat-interactions.

 

time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2013.gif

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Nah it hasn't anything to do with climate change. I stay out of these discussions too. I want to share the research that may give small** suggestions why we are seeing global TC activity lower than average.. but I know my job wouldn't be happy with me :( There are hypotheses floating around out there though that focus on strat-interactions.

And maybe some of this...

pac_anom.gif

atl_anom.gif

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

My bet is that recon finds the system disorganized at the surface. The system to it's east has a rather vigorous mid level spin and I don't see how at least a small portion of 97L's energy is being stolen from the wave. 

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021419
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 02 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 03/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 03/1500Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 03/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

 

20130904.1315.goes13.x.vis1km_high.97LIN

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

My bet is that recon finds the system disorganized at the surface. The system to it's east has a rather vigorous mid level spin and I don't see how at least a small portion of 97L's energy is being stolen from the wave. 

 

I think it's more a matter of the mid-level vortex inducing some northerly shear over 97L rather than a lack of energy for both systems to develop.  The convection associated with that other feature is also pretty intense, so there's probably a region of subsidence surrounding it which is also detrimental to 97L. 

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

The ULAC has really parked itself over 97L, however the the 925mb vort map shows that the disturbance to the east is definitely gumming up the works. 

 

Unless something rapidly changes, I don't think we'll be seeing anything too interesting from recon. 

 

EDIT: And in response to icebreaker, the system to the east might actually be the one experiencing the N/NW shear. 

 

 

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted

Y'all know what would be loltastic?  If we beat the pre-satellite/recon record of 08 Oct, set in 1905.   :lmao:

That is before the last time the Cubs won the Series, so the lists below show just some of the things which have happened in that time.  I

 

http://sincethecubswon.tumblr.com/

 

Another list from a few years ago (it is a bit baseball focused due to the original reason for it)

http://www.jordoncooper.com/2009/03/20-things-that-have-happened-since-the-chicago-cubs-last-won-the-world-series/\

  1. Both radio and TV were invented
  2. Fourteen teams were added to Major League Baseball
  3. George Burns celebrated his 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th and 100th birthdays
  4. Haley's comet passed Earth, twice
  5. Harry Caray was born, and died
  6. The NBA, NHL and NFL were formed, and Chicago teams won championships in each league
  7. The US fought in World War I, World War II, Korean War, Vietnam War, Persian Gulf War, Iraq War, Afghanistan War
  8. Man landed on the moon
  9. Sixteen US presidents were elected
  10. Eleven amendments added to the Constitution
  11. Prohibition was created and repealed
  12. The Titanic was built, set sail, sank, and was re discovered
  13. Wrigley Field was built and becomes the oldest park in the National League
  14. Flag poles were erected on Wrigley Field roof to hold all of the team's future World Series pennants, which have since rusted and been taken down
  15. A combination of 40 Summer and Winter Olympics have been held
  16. Thirteen baseball players have won the Triple Crown
  17. Swing music, bell-bottoms, and disco came in style, went out of style and came back in style
  18. The Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox and Florida Marlins have all won the World Series; what next, the Nationals?!?
  19. The Cubs played almost 15,000 regular-season games, losing the majority of them
  20. Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Oklahoma and New Mexico were admitted to the Union

 

 

Things are definitely looking a bit more interesting even if things may still be slow going.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

:bag:

 

http://www.news-journal.com/news/state/contrary-to-predictions-s-atlantic-hurricane-season-has-been-quiet/article_1315bc20-a64c-5a4b-8c75-d629620dc29e.html

 

 

Even though the hurricane season traditionally doesn’t peak for another week, some seasonal forecasters are acknowledging that they likely misfired on this year’s projections.

“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane scientist who, along with William Gray, produces the most widely read seasonal forecast. “The challenge with this year, unlike some of other forecast busts, is that there are no obvious reasons why.”

Some of the most prominent factors, however, appear to have been a large amount of Saharan dust that has moved over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and choked off storm formation, as well as wind shear that can rip apart a storm’s circulation.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

In the idea world, shear from 97L would retard the system behind it, but the system behind it would keep 97L from gaining too much latitude. CIMSS shows 97L shearing thge blob, but also sustaining the convection with divergent upper flow.

 

I don't see much hope for 97L as a fish storm unless it either crosses Hispaniola and survives to regenerate or stays South of Hispaniola.  It seems to have the Northward component the modeling showed and that I didn't actually think would happen.  Losing hope on anything but a fish.  If that happens, I hope 97L and friend keep battling each other.  No hurricanes before the 5 pm EDT advisory on the 11th!  Unless it is aimed at Florida.

 

97L and its neighbor blob are connected, I'd hope that blob dies, because GFS has been favoring it, and it seems to lower heights to the North enough to lead 97L up far enough to be recurved itself.  Stupid blob.

 

I suspect it would get cancelled on tomorrow's POD, but I think the Yucatan wave is worthy of a tasking for a recon tomorrow.

 

 

Between the recently somewhat negative SOI and the warm water near Pacific Mexico (Bendy's SST anomalies) , it may not be a warm ENSO, but I am wondering if 2006 comparisons may not have some validity.

post-138-0-87789100-1378304278_thumb.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

 

 

I asked about my intuitive suspicion the IOD would mean less rain in Africa (more SAL) and weaker waves, and was told the IOD was a positive for an active season.  Just an amateur hunch, perhaps the effects of IODs the IOD phase is more complicated than people think.

 

 

Edit because original phrasing reminded me of birth control device and sounded funny.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Finally.  Good to see my IMBY wave getting some attention, although I'd give 3:1 odds that is a 1300Z canx tomorrow.

 

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041553
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 04 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-095

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 05/1200Z,1800Z          A. 06/0000Z,06000Z
       B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE     B. AFXXX 0307A CYCLONE
       C. 05/1045Z                C. 05/2230Z
       D. 18.0N 68.0W             D. 19.5N 69.0W
       E. 05/1130Z TO 05/1800Z    E. 05/2330Z TO 06/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
       A. 05/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
       C. 05/1730Z
       D. 22.0N 95.0W
       E. 05/1900Z TO 05/2300Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON
       CARIBBEAN SYSTEM WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
    4. REMARK:  THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK IS FLYING A 24-HOUR
       RESEARCH MISSION TODAY OVER AND EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM
       AS MENTIONED IN TCPOD 13-094 AND WILL RELEASE 80 DROPSONDES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF


 

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WE GOT HIM

WE GOT HIM

Posted
Posted 
TXNT28 KNES 041208TCSNTLA.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)B.  04/1145ZC.  16.8ND.  64.5WE.  THREE/GOES-EF.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRSG.  IR/EIR/VISH.  REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT=1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PTIS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.I.  ADDL POSITIONS    NIL...MCCARTHY

- hmm It is a lot more north than I thought from the satellite image

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