WE GOT HIM Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 IMHO, very near 16N and 64W myself, from CIMSS SWIR loops Yea agree, just south of 16 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 IMHO, very near 16N and 64W myself, from CIMSS SWIR loops Yeah, looks to be around 16.2N, 64.2W (roughly) I do agree with you on the fact that this should probably be @ 50 or 60% now. But whatever, I'm interested to see how it does during DMAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Wow...quite a few GFS ensemble members don't recurve this run..so many of the sharp recurves on the globals seem dependent on another low forming NE of 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Thee tracks are nicely clustered in the sense that they're all equally lame. I hope this dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Thee tracks are nicely clustered in the sense that they're all equally lame. I hope this die Well said...this season is truly an abomination ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 LOL about arguing where the center is without low level RECON and a radar beam from PR above 20k-25k. We'll know tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 LOL about arguing where the center is without low level RECON and a radar beam from PR above 20k-25k. We'll know tomorrow. If they didn't canx today's 2100Z mission, I say 25% chance this would be a TD already. I may be off a little, but the SWIR doesn't seem that ambiguous. BTW, anybody have access to the Global Hawk data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Thee tracks are nicely clustered in the sense that they're all equally lame. I hope this dies. Ouch. If they didn't canx today's 2100Z mission, I say 25% chance this would be a TD already. I may be off a little, but the SWIR doesn't seem that ambiguous. BTW, anybody have access to the Global Hawk data? The Global Hawk is not on station at this moment, it's hanging around the area of convection around 16.5N 57W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 On another note, if both 97L and the Yucatan wave develop w/o getting very strong, we will tie 2011 with the highest number of consecutive tropical storms without our first hurricane (8). Might as well root for this record while we count down the days 'till we beat 2002. And then there's this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 97 seems to be moving only slightly west of due north now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Center around 15/64 where new convective flare up is maybe? System still doesn't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Harder to tell now, but think it is moving NW, and the new 'hot convection is slightly SE of the center. Look closely, a -80C pixel. Haven't seen even one -80 pixel in the Atlantic since don't know when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 The CV storm the GFS is showing day 10 is a an unusually large storm. I don't know about intensity, but the circulation is probably comparable in size to Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 I just want to break the record for latest-first-hurricane (11 Sep), so at this point I'm just hoping everything dies, at least until mid-month. And I realized why it's important to me-- because I want this hideous suffering we're all enduring to be somehow commemorated and acknowledged by the record books. And 97L and that CV thing next week would all be totally lame and boring anyway, unless you're some sicko who gets off on weak-fish watching. Scorched-earth policy, babe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Harder to tell now, but think it is moving NW, and the new 'hot convection is slightly SE of the center. Look closely, a -80C pixel. Haven't seen even one -80 pixel in the Atlantic since don't know when. Since Fernand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 The 0zGFS sends one piece of 97L out to sea and leaves another piece east of the Bahamas and at 312hrs sends it west to Florida as a weak disturbance, and seems to slowly be coming to the Euro solution which if the GFS starts to show this before truncation this would be watched for a Jeanne like scenario with a weaker solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 The 0zGFS sends one piece of 97L out to sea and leaves another piece east of the Bahamas and at 312hrs sends it west to Florida as a weak disturbance, and seems to slowly be coming to the Euro solution which if the GFS starts to show this before truncation this would be watched for a Jeanne like scenario with a weaker solution Yea its hard to get a feel for 97L right now... The other vort max to its NE is actually more convectively active right now with better banding features. If that system becomes the dominant one (something the GFS has been trying to suggest off and on) its a recurve scenario. However, if the blob in the caribbean remains the dominant vorticity, it opens up a whole different set of possibilities. That's the more interesting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Yea its hard to get a feel for 97L right now... The other vort max to its NE is actually more convectively active right now with better banding features. If that system becomes the dominant one (something the GFS has been trying to suggest off and on) its a recurve scenario. However, if the blob in the caribbean remains the dominant vorticity, it opens up a whole different set of possibilities. That's the more interesting solution. She may be staring to absorb the NE vort per satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Radar has some sort of mid-low level center around 16N / 64.5W... which is NW of the recent deep convective burst of satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 The CV storm the GFS is showing day 10 is a an unusually large storm. I don't know about intensity, but the circulation is probably comparable in size to Sandy. It's almost a little too large. I have a feeling it will be one of those slopgyrecanes (assuming on the dubious premise that it does become a hurricane sometime in its life). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Since no hurricane formed today (03 Sep), 2013 will now place at least 4th on the list of modern (recon/satellite) seasons with the latest first hurricane. The next cluster of records to beat are Mon, Tue, and Wed of next week. Woo hoo! 1 – 11 Sep (GUSTAV 2002)2 – 10 Sep (DIANA 1984)3 – 09 Sep (ERIN 2001) ****2013 SO FAR*****4 – 03 Sep (ARLENE 1967)5 – 02 Sep (DEBBY 1988) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Y'all know what would be loltastic? If we beat the pre-satellite/recon record of 08 Oct, set in 1905. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It's almost a little too large. I have a feeling it will be one of those slopgyrecanes (assuming on the dubious premise that it does become a hurricane sometime in its life). This easterly wave hasn't formed yet. We are relying on the conv parameterization schemes of the models to trigger the wave still... Not a good thing =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 If a major hurricane doesn't strike the U.S. this year, that would be the 8th consecutive season without a U.S. Major landfall. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 As Mike's excellent chart shows, 98L still has a strong signature. Its vorticity and rotation are holding together decently S. of the Cape Verdes though convection has been on the wane. I would watch it for development in 3-5 days - as long as it moves slowly enough to maintain enough distance from the TUTT and dry air to its west. Some good satellite links:http://sat11.sat24.com/af?ir=truehttp://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest®ION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&PRODUCT=ir_images&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=AFRICA/Overview/ir_images/meteo8&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant This easterly wave hasn't formed yet. We are relying on the conv parameterization schemes of the models to trigger the wave still... Not a good thing =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 As Mike's excellent chart shows, 98L still has a strong signature. Its vorticity and rotation are holding together decently S. of the Cape Verdes though convection has been on the wane. I would watch it for development in 3-5 days - as long as it moves slowly enough to maintain enough distance from the TUTT and dry air to its west. Kill it!! I totally hope it dies. I want to break the 11 Sep record. Just one more week to go. We might as well have fun with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Any speculation that these two vortical towers merge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 The Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are even more dried out than we saw during the strongest El Nino on record which was developing during the summer of 1997. At least in 1997, we were able to get 3 hurricanes and a major by September 8th before things slowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hmmm, I wonder what would cause RH to be lower in the tropics, higher in the subtropics and lower in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hmmm, I wonder what would cause RH to be lower in the tropics, higher in the subtropics and lower in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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