Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[jlauderdal]

As per Sunny & Warm's advice, a new thread seemed in order-- to remove the dreadful hex on this season.

 

Let's hope this thread brings higher instability, lower shear, and better luck.  

 

P.S.  Thanks, CT Rain, for locking the old thread.

wxma57 needs to bring out bones

[BuffaloWeather]

 

 

 

 

Hush, it owes me a Cat-4 landfall on a chaseable landmass.

 

 

To add to your examples, 1961 also had Hattie, another late-season Cat 5 in the W Caribbean.  (It hit Belize-- then British Honduras-- as a Cat 4.)

 

 

Yep-- totally.  I hope we break the record, just cuz I'm feeling spiteful.

 

With all this downtime. What are your top 5 Hurricane intercepts throughout your chasing career? Have you ever been scared at how high the winds got in any particular storm? Also, how are you able to chase these Hurricanes all over the country? Do you schedule vacation time impromptu? I would love to chase a Hurricane someday, its on my bucket-list! Finally looking like the tropics are getting a bit more active, hopefully we get rewarded for being so patient.

[Srain]

^^^

 

Ask away here...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20292-jonesing-for-a-chase/

[Ed Lizard]

Down 2 mb to 1007 mb on the best track, and moving WNW the last 6 hours.  SHIPS initialized with 30 knots, and likes it for slow and steady intensification, just below hurricane strength, until it commits suicide by Hispaniola per latest BAM track.

[bluewave]

Very consistent signal on the GFS continues of a CV system likely becoming a hurricane in a little over a week- If it does develop

a mid-ocean recurve is by far the most likely outcome. It is really only of interest to see if the satellite-era record of latest Atlantic basin hurricane can be broken. Otherwise it continues to look deadly dull, but I agree that late Sept-Oct might very well at least have a few interesting storms closer to the US.

 

We'll have to see if today's slightly weaker presentation on the Euro is a signal of another Eric-Dorian  clone or we can finally get our first hurricane of the season.

[wxmx]

Yes, 97L is getting better organized...if it weren't 2013 I would be very bullish, but I'm currently just cautiously optimistic. It will  miss PR, but that might mean that it will crash unto Hispaniola head on...hopefully it can miss that island to the west.

[wxmeddler]

 Just some scattered showers and thunderstorms right now, satellite looks decent for a tropical wave.

.

 

 

[Srain]

[wxmx]

Few hours old OSCAT

 

[Ed Lizard]

Verbatim, the Euro solution, 97L winding up East of Florida, the trough far to the North, in apparently weak Easterly steering towards Florida would be pretty good, assuming 97L developed, but looking at the satellite and current motion, and the models, it looks like it either escapes Hispaniola by passing through the Mona Passage, but then is in position to fish, or it passes through Hispaniola, doesn't die, but still probably fishes, or passes through Hispaniola and dies.

 

I think the Euro keeps it a viable SE ECUSA threat by weakening it over Hispaniola so it is too shallow to recurve, without completely killing it, so it can drift West until the trough passes by.  In a weakness between two ridge centers, it could easily sneak out North as come West,  But it is the only realistic glass half full game in town.

 

The ideal will be a continued track barely North of due West passing just below Hispaniola and Cuba, something between the extrapolated current movement and the shallow BAM, but I just don't see any reason to expect it.  BTW, looking at satellite, not super well organized, but looks like a closed circulation with convection around it, or a judgement call on being a TD.  I can see the NHC people waiting to see if convection persists before upgrading it without benefit of a recon.

[Mike.Ventrice]

If things don't start spinning up these next one-to-two weeks, that's it folks for the big CV season.

 

[WE GOT HIM]

It looks like it has enclosed itself in thunderstorms now

[wxmx]

The Yucatan disturbance has once again relocated it's energy back east during the day, colocated with the better upper level conditions. This is now reflected in the 18z GFS with a more conducive BoC environment and a stronger disturbance. Three days ago models had the disturbance reaching the Mexican east Gulf coast between tomorrow and Wednesday, but the low level energy has being dragged back east a little at a time. Now it's expected to landfall in 3 days approx., which leaves the disturbance with solid 48 hours of time over the BoC and decent upper level conditions. Let's see what happens overnight.

[Srain]

The Yucatan disturbance has once again relocated it's energy back east during the day, colocated with the better upper level conditions. This is now reflected in the 18z GFS with a more conducive BoC environment and a stronger disturbance. Three days ago models had the disturbance reaching the Mexican east Gulf coast between tomorrow and Wednesday, but the low level energy has being dragged back east a little at a time. Now it's expected to landfall in 3 days approx., which leaves the disturbance with solid 48 hours of time over the BoC and decent upper level conditions. Let's see what happens overnight.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

552 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION

VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC

REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

18Z UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE BASED ON LATEST

SATL/RADAR TRENDS.

...DAYS 2/3...

...TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAINLY WEAK

UPPER FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH

POSSIBLE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST

BACK TO THE TX COASTLINE. A FEW OF THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A VORT

NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SLIDING WEST TOWARD TX AND

INTENSIFYING... THIS WAS DOWN PLAYED TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SEA

BREEZE REGIME INTO SOUTH TX. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LOCALIZED QPF

AMOUNTS ACROSS FL/SOUTH GA AND CENTRAL/SRN TX COAST.

 

[wxmx]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

552 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION

VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC

REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

18Z UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE BASED ON LATEST

SATL/RADAR TRENDS.

...DAYS 2/3...

...TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAINLY WEAK

UPPER FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH

POSSIBLE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST

BACK TO THE TX COASTLINE. A FEW OF THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A VORT

NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SLIDING WEST TOWARD TX AND

INTENSIFYING... THIS WAS DOWN PLAYED TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SEA

BREEZE REGIME INTO SOUTH TX. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LOCALIZED QPF

AMOUNTS ACROSS FL/SOUTH GA AND CENTRAL/SRN TX COAST.

 

There's actually another feature reaching the Tamaulipas/TX coast day 6+ in the 18z GFS. Same thing happened with a couple of forecasts that depicted some low level vortex in that same area a few days after Fernand, but it didn't materialize. Either way it looks like a wet pattern for the area.

[Superstorm93]

GFDL and HWRF think that 97L could be a powerful system after it's tango with Hispaniola. We'll see what happens. It has improved in organization nicely today and finally has the ULAC aligned with its center. 

 

(  porn until this is an actual system) 

 

 

[EasternUSWX]

GFDL and HWRF think that 97L could be a powerful system after it's tango with Hispaniola. We'll see what happens. It has improved in organization nicely today and finally has the ULAC aligned with its center. 

 

GTE_INVEST97L_2013090312_track_and_intensity.gif

 

panel_c_10.png

 

Too bad it is modeled to go up up and away. 

[Superstorm93]

Too bad it is modeled to go up up and away. 

 

Eh, it would just be nice to see a powerful system again. 

 

Beggars can't be choosers. 

[Amped]

GFDL and HWRF think that 97L could be a powerful system after it's tango with Hispaniola. We'll see what happens. It has improved in organization nicely today and finally has the ULAC aligned with its center. 

 

(  porn until this is an actual system) 

 

GTE_INVEST97L_2013090312_track_and_intensity.gif

 

panel_c_10.png

 

The 12z HWRF actually deepened the storm to 1000mb by 12z tomorrow and 994mb by 18z. This is a little more near term than some of it's prior forecasts.  There is a definite llvl swirl with it and upper winds look favorable, especially for the next 72 hrs.   It's still a long shot but it may surprise.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The GFDL and HWRF are still used? 

[Ed Lizard]

The GFDL and HWRF are still used? 

 

I remember the GFDL was pretty decent for more than a few runs during Katrina.

[wxmeddler]

The GFDL and HWRF are still used? 

 

They are good if you know their limitations and thus know how and when to use them.

[Ed Lizard]

The Yucatan disturbance has once again relocated it's energy back east during the day, colocated with the better upper level conditions. This is now reflected in the 18z GFS with a more conducive BoC environment and a stronger disturbance. Three days ago models had the disturbance reaching the Mexican east Gulf coast between tomorrow and Wednesday, but the low level energy has being dragged back east a little at a time. Now it's expected to landfall in 3 days approx., which leaves the disturbance with solid 48 hours of time over the BoC and decent upper level conditions. Let's see what happens overnight.

 

 

Looking at the CIMSS vorticity products at 850 mb and 700 mb, I think the afternoon convection over land (the Yucatan) actually increased the vorticity of the wave, and extended it farther North.

 

The Yucatan seemed to almost help Fernand.

[wxmx]

Looking at the CIMSS vorticity products at 850 mb and 700 mb, I think the afternoon convection over land (the Yucatan) actually increased the vorticity of the wave, and extended it farther North.

The Yucatan seemed to almost help Fernand.

Yes, very similar to Fernand. Visible shows low level westerly winds, partially confirmed by obs in Cd. Del Carmen And Campeche. I still want to see what the structure looks like tomorrow morning.

[Superstorm93]

Up to a DT 1.5. Pretty decent amount of convection still sticking around at this hour. 

 

 

TXNT28 KNES 040010
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 03/2345Z

C. 15.4N

D. 64.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH DT=1.5 BASED ON
3/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[Ed Lizard]

Sustained winds came up just short of 25 knots at Buoy 43060 as pressure reached its minimum, 1008 mb and the wind has been falling as the pressure is rising.  Judging from the 2 km shortwave IR (the SSD page ruined the color scales on the shortwave IR for floaters), and persistent persistent convection near the center, which has a closed circulation judging from visible imagery earlier, this is close enough to being a tropical depression which could require warnings for the USVI and Puerto Rico (I think it would already be too late for tropical storm watches), this should be a high end 50% Mandarin, not a low end 30% Mandarin.  Assuming this is about a TD, and thus SHIPS will be in the ballpark, a ballpark 45 knot tropical storm could be passing near or over Puerto Rico about this time tomorrow.

 

I really don't Joe Bastardi or weenie style question NHC very often, they are trained professionals, I am a hobbyist, but I think a 30% mandarin is too low.

 

 

Loop the SWIR

[AutoPenalti]

Sustained winds came up just short of 25 knots at Buoy 43060 as pressure reached its minimum, 1008 mb and the wind has been falling as the pressure is rising. Judging from the 2 km shortwave IR (the SSD page ruined the color scales on the shortwave IR for floaters), and persistent persistent convection near the center, which has a closed circulation judging from visible imagery earlier, this is close enough to being a tropical depression which could require warnings for the USVI and Puerto Rico (I think it would already be too late for tropical storm watches), this should be a high end 50% Mandarin, not a low end 30% Mandarin. Assuming this is about a TD, and thus SHIPS will be in the ballpark, a ballpark 45 knot tropical storm could be passing near or over Puerto Rico about this time tomorrow.

I really don't Joe Bastardi or weenie style question NHC very often, they are trained professionals, I am a hobbyist, but I think a 30% mandarin is too low.

Loop the SWIR

I think it looks like what's left of the dry air is still battling 97L. Maybe I'm a little optimistic but I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a depression sometime tommorrow afternoon.

[wxmeddler]

FWIW, I think the LLC is still around 15N.

[Ed Lizard]

FWIW, I think the LLC is still around 15N.

IMHO, very near 16N and 64W myself, from CIMSS SWIR loops

[wxsmwhrms]

IMHO, very near 16N and 64W myself, from CIMSS SWIR loops

 

It definitely looks to be N of 15N.