HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 I don't know about that. The video of Josh stringing a rope over the rafter after Humberto interrupted 2013's attempt at hurricane ineptitude by a few hours was mildly amusing. The fact that the rope broke on him was worth a chuckle or two, and just shows how snake bitten and pathetic we were this year. You hush! Me, I'm happy as a clam this year. Three typhoon eyewalls in one week was all the medicine I needed this year. Turning to the WPAC for action felt like sleeping with some totally hawt stranger because my spouse wouldn't put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I can't believe people are still posting model porn ITT. It's over... time to cut our losses and move on, we will eventually see a decent hurricane season. As this year was certainly a disappointment, but it's hard to count out another storm this year. We've seen big upticks in the rest of the globe in activity and intensity, which both the West Pacific and East Pacific typhoons/hurricanes were timed well with the intraseasonal state of convection in the tropics. The Atlantic is transitioning to a favorable intraseasonal state for convection and tropical cyclogenesis. This might be a time where short-term memory loss may be better suited than pattern recognition based off the current year as there has been some changes in the tropics to a state to a place where we all wish it were August-September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I can't believe people are still posting model porn ITT. It's over... time to cut our losses and move on, we will eventually see a decent hurricane season. Eyewall started it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 As this year was certainly a disappointment, but it's hard to count out another storm this year. We've seen big upticks in the rest of the globe in activity and intensity, which both the West Pacific and East Pacific typhoons/hurricanes were timed well with the intraseasonal state of convection in the tropics. The Atlantic is transitioning to a favorable intraseasonal state for convection and tropical cyclogenesis. This might be a time where short-term memory loss may be better suited than pattern recognition based off the current year as there has been some changes in the tropics to a state to a place where we all wish it were August-September. Nice post. 1994 had 2 storms in November after a crappy season. It wouldn't take much to get the strongest storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Has anyone written a proper eulogy for this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Has anyone written a proper eulogy for this season? It was like a hockey season with two hockey games. In other words, it was slightly better than the 2004-2005 NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I think WxMx said a hurricane has never hit Mexico west of 95W after October something. Sure, its the FIM, and has let me down many times this season, but if it did verify, I don't see anything obvious that would stop continued Westward motion into the Gulf coast of Mexico. BTW, some GEFS support for the Mexican hurricane threat, which in November, well, not the apparent act of a benign Supreme Being the 2004 South Texas Christmas Snow Miracle was, but would still be in the minor miracle catagory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 Since the NATL sucked so badly this year, here's some hawtness from another basin. This cyclone was a 90-kt Cat 2-- and the video shows how angry and edgy even a non-major can be. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 ^^^ Glad 2013 wasn't a complete strike out, even if you had to travel halfway around the Earth. Each 30 km FIM-8 run is different in final destination, but shows a tropical cyclone out beyond 10 days, 6Z GFS has a Nicaragua landfall at the every end of fantasy range, so there is still a chance to polish the turd that was 2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Since the NATL sucked so badly this year, here's some hawtness from another basin. This cyclone was a 90-kt Cat 2-- and the video shows how angry and edgy even a non-major can be. Enjoy! Wow! Great video. That roar towards the end is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 GGEM has two systems basically at the same time affecting Florida LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 ECMWF also has a possible system in the NW Caribbean toward Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Looking at how inactive 2013 has been, the number of named storms is 12 but heres a list of ACE per storm for each season since 1950 ACE per storm1961:18.631955:16.581967:15.251950:15.192004:15.101999:14.751964:14.171965:14.001951:13.701980:13.551966:13.181963:13.111998:13.001996:12.771960:12.571952:12.431989:12.271958:12.101995:12.002003:10.931992:10.861957:10.501979:10.331954:10.272008: 9.122005: 8.861969: 8.782010: 8.741988: 8.581975: 8.441976: 8.401981: 8.331985: 8.002000: 7.932006: 7.901971: 7.461953: 7.432001: 7.331962: 7.202012: 7.001959: 7.001990: 6.931956: 6.752011: 6.581984: 6.461986: 6.002009: 5.892002: 5.581974: 5.551973: 5.381982: 5.331997: 5.251978: 5.252007: 4.931993: 4.881987: 4.861994: 4.571991: 4.501968: 4.381983: 4.251977: 4.171972: 4.001970: 3.402013: 2.50 Looking at this 2013 in terms of ACE per storm is last by almost a full unit which makes this according to this list the most craptacular hurricane season by far but if I were a betting man next year if we can get rid of the stable air will be more active, its almost a given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Looking at how inactive 2013 has been, the number of named storms is 12 but heres a list of ACE per storm for each season since 1950 ACE per storm 2013: 2.50 Looking at this 2013 in terms of ACE per storm is last by almost a full unit which makes this according to this list the most craptacular hurricane season by far but if I were a betting man next year if we can get rid of the stable air will be more active, its almost a given While I wouldn't bet against a more robust year next year, there is more to it than less stable air. I suspect a mild Nino starting next spring which may add shear across the basin. That's just one of many variables great and small that will impact 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 and of note if you remove the greatness of Felix and Dean 2007 was exactly like this year as far as storms fizzling out and not becoming strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 With no immediate areas of interest across the Atlantic currently, or in any model fields, I think it's safe to say the season is "over" (quotations because the season doesn't officially end until November 30). That being said, here's a list of some facts about the season. 2013 is... - the first since 1968 to have the strongest storm not surpass Category 1 intensity. And with a minimum barometric pressure of 980mb, Humberto is the weakest most intense tropical cyclone in the satellite era. - has the 5th lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index since reliable ACE records began in 1950, at 30 units. - will go down with 47 deaths and ~$1.51 billion (2013 USD), the lowest such totals since 2009 - will continue the streak of hurricane seasons that failed to bring a major hurricane (Cat. 3, 4, 5) onto USA soil - will likely see 0 retired storms, the first since 2009 - by far contains the lowest ACE per storm (see above) - Will be forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 F Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. I am so glad the Atlantic Basin is waking us up in the middle of November just to show us yet another POS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I am so glad the Atlantic Basin is waking us up in the middle of November just to show us yet another POS storm.Lol! Looks like we should have subtropical storm Melissa later today. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A LARGE GALE-AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/08 KT. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDERNEATH A 200 MB LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY 48 HORUS AND BEYOND...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE UNITED SATES IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE MELISSA TO THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MELISSA IS FORECAST OT INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. MELISSA HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN 36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 29.3N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 30.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 42.8N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 50.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z 55.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The best part is that SS ACE is not included in the years final ACE number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/2538/ftp4.png It looks like there was a un named tropical storm or hurricane ESE of Barbados yesterday, is this a possible reanalysis candidate as it seems to be the most interesting thing the Atlantic has put out this year or am I just full of something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 A fittingly ugly, lame storm to cap off this incredibly pathetic NATL season. Obviously I'm not bitter about it, since I found good chase subjects on the other side of the earth-- but I have to say, the NATL's lameness this year has just been astounding. Literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Colorado State University has released their summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season/seasonal forecast verification. In it, they attribute the below-average activity to a very weak Thermohaline circulation (in fact, the values between May and June using their new proxy [read more in the report] were at all-time record lows going back to 1950). Excerpt: "We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. OurTHC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W.ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall ofany year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THCset up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air,stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical windshear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico." http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/nov2013/nov2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Colorado State University has released their summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season/seasonal forecast verification. In it, they attribute the below-average activity to a very weak Thermohaline circulation (in fact, the values between May and June using their new proxy [read more in the report] were at all-time record lows going back to 1950). Excerpt: "We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. Our THC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W. ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall of any year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THC set up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air, stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical wind shear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico." http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/nov2013/nov2013.pdf That was an interesting read. I find it intriguing that the years that defied their period's THC classification occur awfully close to the end of that cycle. 1962 was 8 years (borderline) and 1968 2 years before the end of that positive cycle. 1988-1989 were 6-7 years before the end of that cycle. It makes me think that 2013's THC dip is serving as a "caution light" that the end of the current cycle will likely be occurring in the next ~6 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 As someone who spent several years of grad school studying the THC, let me save you trouble: that is the stupidest, sloppiest work I've ever seen. Colorado State University has released their summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season/seasonal forecast verification. In it, they attribute the below-average activity to a very weak Thermohaline circulation (in fact, the values between May and June using their new proxy [read more in the report] were at all-time record lows going back to 1950). Excerpt: "We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. Our THC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W. ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall of any year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THC set up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air, stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical wind shear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico." http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/nov2013/nov2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Final eulogy? With just a few days left in the 2013 hurricane season, NOAA issued its end-of-season press release this morning. Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two of these (Ingrid and Humberto) became hurricanes, but neither became a major hurricane (category 3 or higher), and in fact, neither Ingrid nor Humberto even reached category 2. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook, issued by the Climate Prediction Center back on May 23rd, called for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. Even in August, NOAA’s confidence in an above-normal season was still high; the August update called for 13-19 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms did fall within the forecast range, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below the forecast range, and also well below the long-term averages of 6 and 3, respectively. The season was so quiet that NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flew only 45 aircraft reconnaissance missions over the Atlantic basin, and the total number of hours flown, 435, was the fewest since at least 1966 (and probably longer, but older records on flight hours are hard to come by). This year had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982; it was also the first year since 1994 without a major hurricane. In terms of ACE, the collective strength and duration of the season’s subtropical storms, tropical storms, and hurricanes, 2013 will likely end up as the sixth-quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1950. So what happened? The obviously unexpected (but fortunate) lack of strong storms was related primarily to sinking motion and very dry air across portions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. In addition, wind shear was higher than normal over portions of the basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. These conditions offset otherwise more “active” climate patterns, such as above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a lack of an El Nino. So you might ask - why all the persistent sinking and dry air this year? That’s a good question, but there don’t appear to be any definitive or satisfying answers at the moment. Clearly there are some aspects of seasonal hurricane prediction - especially the factors that affect the ability of the atmosphere to support deep thunderstorm activity - that are not yet very predictable, even just a few weeks in advance. When these patterns take an unexpected turn, the seasonal forecast will fail. It’s worth noting that even though the season overall was quiet, Mexico was repeatedly affected by tropical cyclones this year, including three in the Atlantic and five more from the eastern North Pacific. And it’s also worth noting that even quiet seasons can bring massive devastation (remember Andrew in 1992?). So regardless of whether the season is quiet or active, regardless of whether the outlook says above- or below-normal, residents of hurricane-vulnerable areas always need to prepare each and every season as though this is one that’s going to affect them – and then feel very fortunate if the season ends without any impacts. Given this, you might ask why does NOAA bother to make a seasonal hurricane outlook at all, since it doesn’t seem to have much direct practical benefit. Well, in most years the outlooks are actually skillful, but the best answer from our perspective is that the outlooks raise awareness of the hurricane threat. It’s fascinating that at NHC the question we get more often than any other is “How busy is the season gonna be?”. People clearly have a deep curiosity about this, even if the forecast is not about them specifically. So we know that we’ll get folks' attention for a few minutes if we make and publicize these forecasts. And our hope is that while we have their attention, people will start thinking about their own vulnerabilities - and make sure they’re prepared if a storm should threaten. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=598644863534331&set=a.126275484104607.22530.112957945436361&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I guess not... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL100 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW ISPRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THECENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A NON-TROPICAL LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULDBECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICALCHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLYNORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL ORTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTSON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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