Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[Ed Lizard]

I'll take the over on the current NHC odds on TC development in the bay of Campeche.

 

Hard to take the under on 0% without a lemon or even a mention through 5 days, so I guess you couldn't lose.

 

if that flareup can absolutely hug the Southern BoC and stay under he 20 to 30 knots of shear, I suppose it could briefly become a TC. Gets North of 20ºN it quickly gets into 30 knots plus of shear.

[icebreaker5221]

Le-le-le-lemon time! (Doesn't have the same ring as cherry time, does it?)

[attachment=106459:atl1.gif]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS

SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Santa Claus]

Get over it.

 

I guess I'll have to since Lorenzo is well on his way out

 

Not ready to give up on the season though.  Melissa wouldn't be the first November hurricane.

[Ed Lizard]

I don't remember it myself, but as long as Wiki insists a Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle just days before Thanksgiving, I won't completely give up on Florida.

[GaWx]

I don't remember it myself, but as long as Wiki insists a Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle just days before Thanksgiving, I won't completely give up on Florida.

 

Katie was strong well away from the Gulf. It produced TS force winds here in Savannah.

[hurricaneman]

The ECMWF has a very vigorous wave with a MLC around day 7 which knowing the ECMWF is a sign that this may be a go for development especially with the FIM, GFS, NAVGEM, and CMC on board with the same area. Landfall is an unknown right now but reading the models right this could landfall anywhere from Puerto Rico to Houndoras   but to be truthful this may be something to watch since the MJO is coming into the Caribbean and the vertical instability is higher than normal which is something that hasn't happened all year

[wxsmwhrms]

I don't remember it myself, but as long as Wiki insists a Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle just days before Thanksgiving, I won't completely give up on Florida.

I remember Kate well.  Was nearing the end of high school and had friends who were going to WDW for Thanksgiving and were freaking out about possible impacts.  Was working on a holiday travel weather hotline during college in '88, and had to deal with people have similar panic attacks about Keith.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hurricane Kate was actually a significant, Cat-2 impact on the FL Panhandle.  It came ashore with winds of 85 kt and Tallahassee, though inland, got pounded pretty hard by it.  My good friend, Michael Laca, chased it near the landfall point and got some pretty dramatic footage.  It wasn't a major at landfall, but it was the real thing.  (By the way, it was a major out in the Gulf, with winds of 105 kt.)

 

I completely dismiss Nov as a chasing month in the W Hemisphere-- to me, the season ends 31 Oct-- but Kate is a reminder that there are very rare, important exceptions.

[apm]

 At 9-1 I'm still taking the over

 

Le-le-le-lemon time! (Doesn't have the same ring as cherry time, does it?)[attachment=106459:atl1.gif]1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTSSOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOWCHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[HurricaneJosh]

Le-le-le-lemon time! (Doesn't have the same ring as cherry time, does it?)

 

 

You're right-- it doesn't.  

[Drz1111]

Hurricane Kate was actually a significant, Cat-2 impact on the FL Panhandle.  It came ashore with winds of 85 kt and Tallahassee, though inland, got pounded pretty hard by it.  My good friend, Michael Laca, chased it near the landfall point and got some pretty dramatic footage.  It wasn't a major at landfall, but it was the real thing.  (By the way, it was a major out in the Gulf, with winds of 105 kt.)

 

I completely dismiss Nov as a chasing month in the W Hemisphere-- to me, the season ends 31 Oct-- but Kate is a reminder that there are very rare, important exceptions.

  

 O REELEE?

[HurricaneJosh]

 O REELEE?

 

Lenny wasn't really very chaseable.  You should have cited Michelle 2001 or Paloma 2008.

[Drz1111]

Lenny wasn't really very chaseable.  You should have cited Michelle 2001 or Paloma 2008.

 

I'm partial to the irony of Lenny.  It looks like a well-formed Cape Verde storm - until you realize it's booking it eastbound.

 

I think that you underestimate the potential in November.  I've always suspected, cf Hurricane Kate, that late Oct/early Nov could be the best time of year for a big landfall in the Tampa area, because you can get storms in favorable environments for intensification moving rapidly E or ENE in the Gulf.  Somewhere between Kate and Lenny lies a big hit on Florida.

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm partial to the irony of Lenny.  It looks like a well-formed Cape Verde storm - until you realize it's booking it eastbound.

 

I think that you underestimate the potential in November.  I've always suspected, cf Hurricane Kate, that late Oct/early Nov could be the best time of year for a big landfall in the Tampa area, because you can get storms in favorable environments for intensification moving rapidly E or ENE in the Gulf.  Somewhere between Kate and Lenny lies a big hit on Florida.

 

Could be.  I see your reasoning.  And it's interesting that Tampa's only major hit in the last century was very late-season (25 Oct).

 

P.S.  Lolz Re: Lenny's track.  I was thinking the same thing tonight-- how at casual glance it doesn't look as weird as it really is.  

[Drz1111]

Lenny is a fascinating storm, in that it's the best example of how the most damaging landfalls are the ones that deviate the most from the usual.  IIRC, $500M+ (in 1999 dollars) of damage from a storm that managed to miss nearly every island and weakened dramatically right as it hit the islands; but because the swell / surge came from the Carribean side rather than the usual Atlantic, major property damage along the Carribean coasts.  It's the Leeward's version of Sandy, in a sense.  (And a point for why a late season landfall on the west coast of FL from a strong, fast-moving storm,  even if undergoing ET transition,could be a very damaging landfall with all the population growth in Tampa over the last few decades.)

 

 

Could be.  I see your reasoning.  And it's interesting that Tampa's only major hit in the last century was very late-season (25 Oct).

 

P.S.  Lolz Re: Lenny's track.  I was thinking the same thing tonight-- how at casual glance it doesn't look as weird as it really is.  

[phil882]

Lenny was definitely the strangest November TC track of all time... The storm at 15N (deep in the tropics) moves more than 20 degrees east without a substantial gain in latitude. Thats just not an environmental pattern you see very often that persists for 5+ days. 

 

[icebreaker5221]

Lenny was definitely the strangest November TC track of all time... The storm at 15N (deep in the tropics) moves more than 20 degrees east without a substantial gain in latitude. Thats just not an environmental pattern you see very often that persists for 5+ days. 

 

Yup, definitely not a pattern you see every day.  Even more impressive - usually when you do see such a setup at 700 mb, westerlies should be even stronger aloft associated with an even stronger upper-low to the north, resulting in a TC-destroying environment.  This was an exception, shear was relatively modest. 

 

[Chaser25973]

I think we've spent more time in this thread talking about other storms and how sh*tty this season is than we've used to talk about current storms of the season. And we still, somehow miraculously got up to Lorenzo.

[Ed Lizard]

I think we've spent more time in this thread talking about other storms and how sh*tty this season is than we've used to talk about current storms of the season. And we still, somehow miraculously got up to Lorenzo.

 

Saw it mentioned before, probably will set a record low ACE per named storm record.

 

 

Maybe we're headed back to the dark days of the 70s and 80s, and every other year we'll get a storm that draws in anybody but the hard core tropical nerds.  At least we have the West Pac, although as fast as storm spin up into Cat 5s, they seem to spin back down again.

 

Euro is showing a 986 mb or stronger low in a week.  Only problem, it is Minnesota.

 

Totally off topic, assuming any moisture return at all, 60 knot 850 mb jet suggests a massive Halloween Mississippi Valley severe outbreak.  So the Atlantic tropic forums loss is the Central/Western subforum's gain.

[HurricaneJosh]

I think we've spent more time in this thread talking about other storms and how sh*tty this season is than we've used to talk about current storms of the season. And we still, somehow miraculously got up to Lorenzo.

 

I don't think the number of storms is miraculous.  It's typical of the last several years-- plenty of named storms, but almost all of them complete and utter crap.  The problem in the NATL isn't the number of storms, which has been above average the last few years (including this year)-- it's the low quality.

[Amped]

I don't think the number of storms is miraculous.  It's typical of the last several years-- plenty of named storms, but almost all of them complete and utter crap.  The problem in the NATL isn't the number of storms, which has been above average the last few years (including this year)-- it's the low quality.

 

2011 had a lot of those. 2012 was a little better but still crappy. 2013 was a nightmare was the nightmare that I dreamed up after the 2011 season.

[Mike.Ventrice]

I'm surprised the wave out over the western MDR doesn't have any % of development by NHC.

[Eyewall2005]

Well....

 

[hurricaneman]

I'm surprised the wave out over the western MDR doesn't have any % of development by NHC.

Development isnt expected within 5 days according to the models which is probably the why but after that it looks like a go, and what the models are developing is not this wave but an area currently between 20 to 25W

[Chaser25973]

Well....

 

 

No.

[Ed Lizard]

Well....

 

I didn't even know they still ran the FIM-7, unless it was supposed to be used as some kind of ensembles for the FIM-8

 

 

Anyway, FIM 8 says it recurves between Haiti and Cuba.  I wonder if the whole Japanese island hopping thing has made people who avoid islands consider Hispaniola, which is pretty freaking big for an island.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Pretty baffling how quiet the season has been thus far. 

[Sunny and Warm]

Pretty baffling how quiet the season has been thus far. 

I don't know about that.  The video of Josh stringing a rope over the rafter after Humberto interrupted 2013's attempt at hurricane ineptitude by a few hours was mildly amusing.  The fact that the rope broke on him was worth a chuckle or two, and just shows how snake bitten and pathetic we were this year.    

[thewxmann]

I can't believe people are still posting model porn ITT. It's over... time to cut our losses and move on, we will eventually see a decent hurricane season.

[andyhb]

I can't believe people are still posting model porn ITT. It's over... time to cut our losses and move on, we will eventually see a decent hurricane season.

 

Especially the FIM lol.