Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[IsentropicLift]

A few of the 12z GFS ensemble members and some of the GFS runs the past few days, including the 10/4 18z GFS have a nice Caribbean cruiser in about ten days that is near the Yucatan as a potent looking large tropical cyclone. Obviously fantasy range but this seems to agree well with that idea.

 

[thewxmann]

To be honest, the GFS has been showing a big Caribbean cyclone at the 10+ day range on and off for about 3 weeks now. I really wouldn't put too much stock in it.

[Superstorm93]

 

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricaneman]

the area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico may need to be watched as admittedly this will start out as an ET system that transitions into something tropical and threatens the Carolina Coast next week and has been showing this for several runs in a row but as we've seen in 2013 one can't say it will develop even though the models say so

[Ed Lizard]

Besides Euro suggesting a potential STS Lorenzo and then a freakishly far East TS Melissa (icing on the cake of the STS Lorenzo, a low shear photogenic Atlantic storm Melissa?) Possible suggestions of  mid-late October action.

 

Not an MJO master, and I wish the Op was higher amplitude, but Halloween season hijinks maybe?  Happened last year.  And I won't be bummed about missing the Wilma anniversary w/o a Florida hurricane if there was an end of month or even November hurricane, and I cling tight to the memory (well, I read it somewhere, I was out in the Navy) of 1985's Hurricane Kate for holding out my trademark optimism, that Florida can be slammed past mid-November.

 

[GaWx]

 It does look like to me that the original LLC of Karen is pretty much open/dead. However, I am slightly curious about whether or not there could be a new circulation (maybe non-Karen) about due south of the MS/AL border. The thunderstorms seem to have persisted in a concentrated somewhat circular area for several hours as it moves ENE:

 

 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-avn-long.html

 

With no vis, it is quite difficult to tell at night. This is probably a longshot, but I thought it to be well worth mentioning after hearing about that possible new LLC last evening.

[phil882]

The system in the far E Atlantic has a pretty good shot to develop. It had support form the GFS and now has support form the ECMWF. The ECMWF is particularly interesting as it shows the large upper-level trough that will dig in behind it will completely cutoff and drop into the E Caribbean. If that happens, the shear over the system will only be strong temporarily and then relax again as the storm moves N of the Lesser Antilles.

 

The GFS is actually much more unfavorable for a change with no cutoff developing and dropping SW and just a large corridor of upper level westerlies that will shear apart the system.

 

The other system Ed is referring to is not a tropical or subtropical cyclone but just an extratropical low. 

[phil882]

ECMWF continues to be bullish on Invest 98L... very favorable environment beyond 120 hours allows for genesis to the NE of the lesser Antilles.  

[Floydbuster]

If we can get Lorenzo and Melissa soon, that leaves the opportunity for any big late season October/November Caribbean storm to be named "Hurricane Nestor".

 

[jconsor]

IMHO most of the models are likely keying on the wrong wave in the e. Atlantic.  The wave behind 98L which just moved off the African coast has better vorticity.  It also better upper pattern currently (w/ 200 mb high nearly overhead) and a better upper environment ahead (it will be able to maintain more distance from the strong TUTT in the central Atlantic and from associated dry air aloft).   

 

Yesterday's 12z GFS developed the wave behind 98L and today's 6z run has gone back to that solution.

 

See http://sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=false&region=wa and http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR039/BW/WESTERNAFRICA/index.htm for sat loops of the system behind 98L.

 

Vorticity:

 

Shear:

 

 

 

 

[wxmx]

IMHO most of the models are likely keying on the wrong wave in the e. Atlantic.  The wave behind 98L which just moved off the African coast has better vorticity.  It also better upper pattern currently (w/ 200 mb high nearly overhead) and a better upper environment ahead (it will be able to maintain more distance from the strong TUTT in the central Atlantic and from associated dry air aloft).   

 

Yesterday's 12z GFS developed the wave behind 98L and today's 6z run has gone back to that solution.

 

See http://sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=false&region=wa and http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR039/BW/WESTERNAFRICA/index.htm for sat loops of the system behind 98L.

 

Vorticity:

CIMSS_Eatl_vort.GIF

 

Shear:

CIMSS_Eatl_shear.GIF

Agree. If the front runner tries to develop, it will recurve most probably and would stay weak. The one in the back has more probabilities of staying low latitude thanks to more zonal ridging along 25N thru most of the C Atlantic mid and late week.

[phil882]

Agree. If the front runner tries to develop, it will recurve most probably and would stay weak. The one in the back has more probabilities of staying low latitude thanks to more zonal ridging along 25N thru most of the C Atlantic mid and late week.

 

I think the 00z ECMWF is keying on the merger of the two waves that are already beginning to interact currently. The GFS and ECMWF continue to be at odds Re: how they handle the digging upper-level trough at 50W. The ECMWF continues to remain steadfast that the trough will amplify to the point it cuts off from the mid-latitude flow, providing a narrow corridor of easterly upper-level flow for the disturbance to traverse to its north. The GFS remains steady in its solution refusing to cutoff the trough and providing moderate to strong westerly flow over the disturbance, preventing significant development. This is one of the rare times this year that the ECMWF is actually more aggressive than the GFS with development.

 

Given the track record this year, I think the ECMWF has the upper hand, although its a very fragile upper-level pattern beyond 5 days, and if the cutoff ends up not dropping far enough south, it could still easily shear it apart (a la GFS).

[the moors in england]

We have a mandarin that is pretty low in lat.

[Mike.Ventrice]

It's interesting that the 00Z European ensembles are showing AL98 having a much faster westward propagation speed than what the deterministic solution shows. With the convectively suppressed phase of a CCKW slated to interact with this invest over the few days, I presume the trades will pick up and carry this disturbance a bit faster than what you'd typically want to see for  a meaty TC to get going. Should be interesting to watch.

 

[GaWx]

It's interesting that the 00Z European ensembles are showing AL98 having a much faster westward propagation speed than what the deterministic solution shows. With the convectively suppressed phase of a CCKW slated to interact with this invest over the few days, I presume the trades will pick up and carry this disturbance a bit faster than what you'd typically want to see for  a meaty TC to get going. Should be interesting to watch.

 

 The 12Z Euro is weaker with AL98 and, therefore, keeps it at a much lower latitude than the 0Z did. It has a very weak disturbance in the PR/Leewards area at hour 216 fwiw. That's pretty far westward movement for mid October.

[Ed Lizard]

98L doesn't look terrible this morning.

 

Too bad it isn't 6 weeks ago.

[jconsor]

98L has significantly better organization than 94E this morning, with stronger vorticity and convergence. 94E is lacking in convection near the center, and a blob of growing convection 150-200 miles south of the center appears to be restricting inflow and hobbling the system.

 

Occasionally, it seems NHC is a little too invested in model forecasts and not focused enough on current trends. They have 98L with a 50% chance of developing next 48 hours and 94E with 70%.  Personally I'd reverse the percentages, though I think 94E is likely to develop beyond 48 hours.

 

[apm]

Purely academic, but it seems as though a TD has spun up just south of Nova Scotia this morning. Has there been an ASCAT pass of the area recently?

 

[Edit:] Best I could find

[Ed Lizard]

Purely academic, but it seems as though a TD has spun up just south of Nova Scotia this morning. Has there been an ASCAT pass of the area recently?

 

[Edit:] Best I could find

 

The wind field, while containing strong winds, doesn't seem quite concentrated enough, and 6Z GFS doesn't think it is or will become warm core.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/13101106/52.html

[apm]

Look at the hi-res visible.  The center is about to become exposed... and look like a lot of the named systems we've had this year.

[Ed Lizard]

Look at the hi-res visible.  The center is about to become exposed... and look like a lot of the named systems we've had this year.

It does sort of look like a sheared TD/STD, and is near the 26º SST isotherm.  I'd think as slow as this year is, NHC would pick up on it.  I'll check the JB Twitter...

 

...

 

Nothing on the Twitters about offshore New England/Canadian maritimes.  Enough politics it almost belongs in AP.  (I am (still) an AccuWx Pro subscriber, and may even qualify as an AGW denier, but the quality of his discussions and forecasting took a hit when he became all global warming, all the time)  Joe will be appearing on Indian TV, however re Phailin.

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

 

 

I'll defer to a red tagger on this system.

[wxmx]

We now have a cherry.

[Amped]

If nothing else forms, the 2013 ACE is at 28. 

 

That would put it at a tie with 1972 for the 3rd lowest since 1950.   The two lower years were 1977  had 25 and 1983 had 17.  1982 is the only other year with only 2 hurricanes

 

1994 had 2 hurricanes in November, so the season is not over yet, even though I gave up hope a long time ago. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The thread should be titled, "One more chance".

 

[Ed Lizard]

We now have a cherry.

 

I have seen nothing on satellite imagery that, in my amateur and humble opinion, justified a 48 hour cherry for 98L.  OTOH, I turned down 4 *free* football tickets to Dallas yesterday, my amateur opinions sometimes fail, but in a happy way.

[jordanwx]

I have seen nothing on satellite imagery that, in my amateur and humble opinion, justified a 48 hour cherry for 98L.  OTOH, I turned down 4 *free* football tickets to Dallas yesterday, my amateur opinions sometimes fail, but in a happy way.

Never had much model support but 40kts of southerly winds (regardless of closed/not-closed) is pretty impressive

 

[Ed Lizard]

Never had much model support but 40kts of southerly winds (regardless of closed/not-closed) is pretty impressive

 

Indeed, it has impressive winds, but it doesn't look close to closing off a center.  Not even a mid-level center. 

Just looked at the 12Z FIM.  Would seem to be predicting separation of the low levels, which continue Westward, from the mid levels (and PW max).  I'm not optimistic.

[AutoPenalti]

From a cherry to a lemon.

Best. Season. Ever.

[DopplerWx]

RIP 2013 season.  

[Roger Smith]

If the models have underestimated east coast trough potential from about 19th to 23rd, the mess north of PR has some chance of giving us something to watch. I think there's enough energy available to create a fair sized storm out of this, but everything would depend on some amplitude that doesn't currently appear on most model runs. I would say there is still some chance as model accuracy at 4-7 days is not carved in stone. This is where and when I was speculating we might see a storm (at the moment I would say any additional potential would be aimed at Cape Cod to eastern Long Island rather than further west, or possibly into eastern Canada).

 

But other than that, what a dud of a season, in the forecast contest I think normal (1993-2012) is going to win but normal 1851-1880 would do even better.