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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

HurricaneJosh

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,
 The 0Z Thu Euro is finally caving into the much more realistic GFS with it having 97L ~100 miles east of its 12Z and earlier runs at hour 42 and significantly more organized with lower SLP vs. its earlier runs. I expect it to come even further east and be even stronger in later runs. It is still ~100 miles west of the 0Z GFS.

 

 

Edit: It is now up to 80% chance from 70% per NHC as of 2 AM.

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jconsor

jconsor

Posted
Posted

The Euro (like all models) has had significant issues picking up on the genesis and intensification of small tropical cyclones in the past - good examples are Karl in 2010 and Marco in 2008.

 

It's interesting to see that GFS has done better than the Euro with the genesis and intensity of the most significant Gulf/BOC systems - Barry, Fernand and Ingrid.  It looks very likely that Karen will join that list.

 

The GFS has overdone a few systems that didn't develop because of convective feedback, but its rate of false genesis within 5 days appears to be much less of an issue than in prior years.  It seems recent upgrades have significantly improved the GFS's performance with genesis and TC intensity.  

 

Folks,
 The 0Z Thu Euro is finally caving into the much more realistic GFS with it having 97L ~100 miles east of its 12Z and earlier runs at hour 42 and significantly more organized with lower SLP vs. its earlier runs. I expect it to come even further east and be even stronger in later runs. It is still ~100 miles west of the 0Z GFS.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

While the 00z ECMWF is completely different on the intensity of 97L the first 24-36 hours, it still decouples the mid-level vortex from the surface circulation thereafter and takes the llc into LA by 66 hours on 18z 5 Oct (Saturday) as a much weakened system. 

 

Ordinarily I'd be willing to trust the ECMWF a lot more, but there simply isn't a strong upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico, just a weakening shallow shear axis that could easily be amended by strong diabatic outflow from a TC. I think the GFSs take of 97L is more realistic than the ECMWF's take in which the system's outflow is able to modify the upper-level wind profile enough to mitigate the strongest southwesterly flow. This will still be a sheared TC, but it will be similar to Ingrid, fighting back with attempts to establish outflow.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

Not too often we see an invest at 40 knots. That guarantees we'll go straight to a TS once it is classified. Someone's weekend is going to be messed up. Combined with the major winter storm and severe weather event up north, this is turning out to be one heck of a start to October. 

 

At 0600 UTC, 03 October 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 21.5°N and 86.6°W. The current intensity was 40 kt and the center was moving at 11 kt at a bearing of 335 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.

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Martin

Martin

Posted
Posted

48hr Visible/Infrared Satellite Blend

 

0z GFS Winds

 

 

You should really ask Ian or Randy for a Pro tag at some point now that you've been working at WVEC. ;)

Haha good idea! Just in time for winter.... :)

 

wow according  to this, the northeast gets the best winds out of anywhere from this.  How is that possible?

At that point it would no longer be a pure tropical system. Interaction with a front might boost the winds a bit

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

wow according to this, the northeast gets the best winds out of anywhere from this. How is that possible?

That was at a certain hour from that run.

As "it" heads north, "it" will interact with a cold front and undergo baroclonic influences. So not purely tropical at that point.

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Guest Imperator

Guest Imperator

Posted
Posted

WPC doesnt like the GFS, track wise at least:

 

CONVECTIVE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP TOWARDS/ASHORE THE GULF COAST, BUT NOTHING
EXTREME FOR THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE CLUSTERING. A NON-GFS COMPROMISE LIES
WITHIN THE OVERALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS PREFERRED
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE
NATURE. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
FOR THIS CYCLONE'S LATEST STATUS.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

WPC doesnt like the GFS, track wise at least:

 

CONVECTIVE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME SPREAD WITH THIS

SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP TOWARDS/ASHORE THE GULF COAST, BUT NOTHING

EXTREME FOR THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE

EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE

GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE CLUSTERING. A NON-GFS COMPROMISE LIES

WITHIN THE OVERALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS PREFERRED

WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE

NATURE. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS

FOR THIS CYCLONE'S LATEST STATUS.

Ordinarily, I would completely understand the idea of not going with the eastern outlier, the gfs. However, even the gfs has so far been a little too far west as even it didn't have it going through the extreme western edge of the Yucatan Channel. I'd say the gfs is going to verify closest.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry.... we have to NOT go with the GFS... I want rain.  :popcorn: To far east and you and I miss it!

Lol! I'm just a friendly, objective messenger. ;)

This is going to turn out to be one of the worst Euro busts in a long time! Even the 0Z Thu run, with its somewhat stronger and further east track initially, is going to bust bigtime.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Some honking for the Carribean next week

 

 

The GFS has been consistent the last few days with a NW Caribbean threat...looks interesting, and even though it's the long range GFS, MJO transit supports this. Also, it looks like that shorter than normal long waves will keep ridging a bit north of climo, thus keeping the chances of shear lower than average. 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

As of October 3rd, there is still a finite chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the HGX CWA.

 

Saturday, not counting Steve's Barelycane Jerry, the season is officially over.

 

 

Although I'd take a badly sheared ugly out of season TC if it'd drop an inch or two on the water oak.

 

I see 1949 was the 8th wettest year ever at Hobby, 71.19 inches of rain, but I can't easily find 3 October 1949 or 10/4/1949 rainfall amounts.

 

680px-1949_Atlantic_hurricane_10_track.p

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

As of October 3rd, there is still a finite chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the HGX CWA.

 

Saturday, not counting Steve's Barelycane Jerry, the season is officially over.

 

 

Although I'd take a badly sheared ugly out of season TC if it'd drop an inch or two on the water oak.

 

I see 1949 was the 8th wettest year ever at Hobby, 71.19 inches of rain, but I can't easily find 3 October 1949 or 10/4/1949 rainfall amounts.

 

 

1912, storm #6

 

No recorded cane landfalls for MX west of 95W past Oct 10th.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

As of October 3rd, there is still a finite chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the HGX CWA.

 

Saturday, not counting Steve's Barelycane Jerry, the season is officially over.

 

 

Although I'd take a badly sheared ugly out of season TC if it'd drop an inch or two on the water oak.

 

I see 1949 was the 8th wettest year ever at Hobby, 71.19 inches of rain, but I can't easily find 3 October 1949 or 10/4/1949 rainfall amounts.

 

You should be able to access all archived F6 climate data for free here (once the govt shutdown is over):

 

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html

 

If it's official data, it will be available there. 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

The 00Z Multi Model TC Genesis Probabilities continue to suggest the SW Caribbean Sea does have a fairly high chance of developing a storm in the medium to long range. The operational GFS and European have been 'sniffing' that area for potential TC development and their ensembles do suggest lower pressure across the Western half of the Caribbean at that time. It is also noteworthy that an upper ridge is being modeled over the Western/Central Gulf of Mexico as well and once a secondary trough passes next weekend, perhaps conditions may be a bit more conducive for TC development as others have mentioned.

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