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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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Buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Channel reported peak 1-minute winds of 35 kt this hour and 32 kt last hour.  Peak gusts this hour were 41 kt  It's near some of the stronger convection so some of the strong winds may be due to convection, but it suggests that 97L is near or at tropical storm strength.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

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Beginning to see a circulation around the center from the visible imagery.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

 

Recon shows though that its very poorly defined at the surface, with little evidence so far to concluded its well defined enough to be classified as a TC. 

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Recon getting some nice SW winds now compared to earlier, pressure has dropped as well from earlier

203530 1952N 08518W 9773 00264 0072 +234 +225 198025 025 026 002 00
203600 1954N 08516W 9772 00264 0071 +232 +228 200025 026 026 003 00
203630 1956N 08515W 9771 00265 0071 +231 +230 203024 024 027 002 00
203700 1957N 08514W 9772 00263 0070 +234 +229 208024 024 028 001 03
203730 1959N 08514W 9769 00266 0070 +235 +224 210019 024 /// /// 03
203800 2000N 08515W 9771 00265 0071 +235 +224 216016 017 024 002 00
203830 2000N 08517W 9772 00264 0071 +235 +225 213016 017 023 003 00
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You can see the surface circulation is just starting to become better defined closer to where the mid-level vortex has been looking well organized most of today. The wind shift has become more pronounced and the storm is probably no the verge of being named. Its clear, however, that the surface circulation and mid-level vortex are not yet perfectly aligned. 

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1006.8 millibars at 20.2N 86W. They were investigating the remnant low-level circulation as a new one formed near the mid-level center. Maybe enough for classification considering it's steadily becoming better defined on satellite. 

interesting as the wxbell 12z gfs maps didnt have it down to 1006mb until tomorrow.

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Looking good...actually more than good. Now that it appears that a new LLC is consolidating farther N, under the better conditions, we may see some faster paced intensification for the next 24 hours...well into mid end TS. 

latest visible shots show storms firing right over the possible new coc.

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That new vigorous convective burst is very close to the ML (and soon to be LL?) center of circulation may be the kick needed to entice genesis. 

 

attachicon.gifavn0.jpg

 

Recon now finding some 35 knot SFMR winds in the area of the convection, but the flow is southeasterly in the region, implying that if there is a center its still displaced west of the convective burst. 

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gfs is a tad weaker and a tad slower, still a decent ts though.  doesn't really ramp it up until it nears landfall and doesn't show much organization at all in the next 36 hrs or so.

 

EDIT: well i take that back, at landfall @ 96 hrs it is almost identical to 12z landfall strength, 75kt at 900mb.

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If that's not a TD I'll eat my socks.  Outflow is great to the north, east, and SE.  Fairly moist environment and high TCHP.  Wish we had radar or a more recent TRMM pass.

We just had recon....low level was broad, ill defined and with multiple centers...not a TD. What dressing would you like with that?

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