DaculaWeather Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Two buoy's in the area are reporting rising pressures and SE winds, it appears the center is to the north or northwest of those. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=18.1N&lon1=85.3W&uom=E&dist=300&ot=A&time=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Two buoy's in the area are reporting rising pressures and SE winds, it appears the center is to the north or northwest of those. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=18.1N&lon1=85.3W&uom=E&dist=300&ot=A&time=3 Steve, I'm not sure about that. I was thinking the center is actually SSW of buoy 42056. I do think it is WNW of 42057. It doesn't seem to be extremely close to either and it appears to me to not be getting closer to either one, especially 42057. We seem to agree it is moving away from both buoys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I see WSW low level winds in clouds near 16.2ºN, 84.6ºW, so I'd guess whatever center there is in Northwest of there, maybe 17-ish and 85.5ºWest-ish. Yesterday's 12Z 15 km FIM-9, with a TS weakening back to a TD as it approached Jefferson/LaFourche parish, had all rain East of the center of the 1004-1008 mb low, latest 0Z FIM-9 has a very small area of 35 knot plus winds at landfall, possibly over parts of Plaquemines parish, and has a little bit of rain actually over the system center. Small steps. But from a TD at landfall with no rain falling inside closed 1008 mb isobar, to a 35-40 knot TS possibly affecting Empire, with some rain falling inside that closed 1008 mb isobar, the trend is our friend. TS watch as early as the 9:45 pm CDT advisory from Morgan City to Mobile? Edit to Add- Friday advisory on TD 12L... Second edit to add- yeah, out on a limb, I predict they will be issuing advisories on TD 12L, maybe even 35 knot TS Karen by Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I put the center at 20.1N 84.8W as of now as it may be relocating there, either that or I'm following a MLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I put the center at 20.1N 84.8W as of now as it may be relocating there, either that or I'm following a MLC I think my guess is better than yours, but I wouldn't actually bet money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I am very grateful the NHC and weather.gov sites are still up in the wake of the shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I put the center at 20.1N 84.8W as of now as it may be relocating there, either that or I'm following a MLC I'm noticing at the other bb more people favoring that this is or will become a new LLC. This would be quite a bit further north (2 degrees) and even a little east of where I was guessing and would totally change the potential for 97L. It would take the Euro scenario of a weak, far west solution out of the picture. However, until recon gets there and suggests a LLC reformation or buoy reports suggest the same, I'm not going to assume that is occuring. Regardless, I continue to think the GFS's idea of good development this time may be right for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 12z gfs wraps up 97l a good bit more than 6z thru 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 GFS is back with the mid/high end TS soloution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 wow, down to 996 mb thru 72hrs and approaching the panhandle moving ne. still looks sheared but not as bad as previous runs. moderate ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I'm noticing at the other bb more people favoring that this is or will become a new LLC. This would be quite a bit further north (2 degrees) and even a little east of where I was guessing and would totally change the potential for 97L. It would take the Euro scenario of a weak, far west solution out of the picture. However, until recon gets there and suggests a LLC reformation or buoy reports suggest the same, I'm not going to assume that is occuring. Regardless, I continue to think the GFS's idea of good development this time may be right for a change. The low cloud motions in the visible imagery suggests to me that the LLC may very well be relocating to that more northern area. If (big IF) that is so, it would lend credence toward a more vertically coherent system similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 a legit trop storm at 90 hrs nearing landfall, looks healthy and down to 987 mb, not as sheared looking either. EDIT: 70kt winds at 900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 As alluded to by others, this run of the GFS is quite a bit stronger than prior runs. Prior to this run, the strongest at landfall on the lower resolution that I follow was 1007 mb. The 12z of today has it landfalling in the FL panhandle at 1003 mb! (landfall Sun 10/6 at 12z). Also, note that it is strenghtening just about all of the period til landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 landfall near panama city at 96 hrs. storm gradually strengthened in the GOM but really wrapped up as it made the turn ne towards the panhandle. will be interesting to see if future runs follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It bottoms out around 986 mb on the high res data at landfall. 75 kt 950 mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If the 12z GFS verifies this could be a small tight core storm strenghtening in the NE Gulf right up to landfall. The small size should help the surface winds strengthen more quickly as the pressure drops. Probably a legit hight end TS this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Man...this is an impressive run of the GFS. Karen develops to a strong tropical storm, then once it interacts with trough, rain explodes north of the track through a lot of the interior Southeast. First time I've seen the GFS paint some 3-inch totals well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It bottoms out around 986 mb on the high res data at landfall. 75 kt 950 mb winds. What determines the extent to which those winds mix down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It looks a lot better organized, though I still think the low and mid levels are not stacked vertically...and until that changes, only gradual intensification is expected. Small anticyclone is on top of the Invest. With respect to pinpointing an LLC, it looks like one is consolidating around 20N 85W...east southeast of Cozumel. All in all, it getting that "look", but looks can be deceiving and can collapse if there's no strong backbone (low/mid level alignment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It looks a lot better organized, though I still think the low and mid levels are not stacked vertically...and until that changes, only gradual intensification is expected. Small anticyclone is on top of the Invest. With respect to pinpointing an LLC, it looks like one is consolidating around 20N 85W...east southeast of Cozumel. All in all, it getting that "look", but looks can be deceiving and can collapse if there's no strong backbone (low/mid level alignment) If any dominant LLC is really near 20N, 85W instead of ~18N, 85.5W like I thought earlier, that would mean the model consensus is likely too far south and would tell me that the further east model forecasts like the 12Z Wed. GFS would be much more likely assuming no further LLC reformations. The 0Z Wed. Euro doesn't even have the center reaching as far north as 20N until the Yucatan. Even the 12Z Wed. GFS only has the main center uo as far north as 19N and already near Yucatan coast as of 2 PM EDT today though it then has a new LLC forming at 22N, 88W tonight at 2 AM. This new LLC then dominates and becomes the TS center later. I have a feeling that this suspected center (per wxmx and others) near 20N, 85W may be what the 12Z GFS reforms as the new center at 2 AM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It looks a lot better organized, though I still think the low and mid levels are not stacked vertically...and until that changes, only gradual intensification is expected. Small anticyclone is on top of the Invest. With respect to pinpointing an LLC, it looks like one is consolidating around 20N 85W...east southeast of Cozumel. All in all, it getting that "look", but looks can be deceiving and can collapse if there's no strong backbone (low/mid level alignment) Excellent analysis IMO. The GFS is the only global model that totally aligns the low and mid level circs. GGEM/UK/00Z EC all have it more tilted, although the 12Z runs of the first two models do seem a bit more organized than earlier runs. It looks like the shear will definitely increase the farther NW it goes - would have to be quite a bit farther E more like the GFS shows to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Man...this is an impressive run of the GFS. Karen develops to a strong tropical storm, then once it interacts with trough, rain explodes north of the track through a lot of the interior Southeast. First time I've seen the GFS paint some 3-inch totals well inland. Bummer the Terps at Seminoles game is a Noon kickoff. Nothing more fun to watch on TV then rainbands moving in during the 4th quarter. Recon is airborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It looks a lot better organized, though I still think the low and mid levels are not stacked vertically...and until that changes, only gradual intensification is expected. Small anticyclone is on top of the Invest. With respect to pinpointing an LLC, it looks like one is consolidating around 20N 85W...east southeast of Cozumel. All in all, it getting that "look", but looks can be deceiving and can collapse if there's no strong backbone (low/mid level alignment) We did had an invest in this region back in the mid-August that failed to develop that looked similar on satellite. This is not unlike that scenario except there was a much stronger upper-level low over the GoM that essentially separated the mid-level vortex and low-level vortex. I don't see the same synoptic pattern in the GoM this time around, so things should be more favorable for the genesis of 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wow, the NHC just raised the 48 hour probability of a TC from 97L from 40% to 70%! TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSUREOVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZEDOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TODEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAYOR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATANPENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICOTONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERTHAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT ASTHE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECTTHE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATANPENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNITHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THEDISTURBANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Unflagged SFMR winds of 30 kt from the east north of the "center" as aircraft is on approach. Extrap surface pressure down to 1008.9 mb ENE of Cozumel. It sure looks like a TD in visible satellite - but of course looks can be deceiving. Glad we have a plane in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The 12Z Euro fwiw still has virtually no closed low and is still quite a bit west of the GFS. I think it is out to lunch this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The 12Z Euro fwiw still has virtually no closed low and is still quite a bit east of the GFS. I think it is out to lunch this time. Yesterday is was well west of the GFS....maybe it is out to lunch as you say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The 12Z Euro fwiw still has virtually no closed low and is still quite a bit east of the GFS. I think it is out to lunch this time.Did you mean west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Actually looking presentable for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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