Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[Ed Lizard]

I hate to wish a Mitch that kills tens of thousands on any poor people in Central America, but the only way 97L ever becomes more than a minimal hurricane, more likely just a TS, is to do what Mitch did, defy forecasts to move out of the Caribbean*, and stay down over high OHC and under favorable shear.

 

5 day 12Z GFS position North of the Yucatan puts it in 20 to 25 knots of SW shear, with the 2 inch plus PW pushed to the East of the Center.

 

Same upper forecast says if 97L can somehow stay South of the Yucatan Channel, it'd be under an anticyclone.

 

0Z Canadian develops a point anticyclone over the top of 97L in the Gulf, but even the Canadian is a high end TS battling dry air issues.

 

Everyone knows of my super-weenie optimism, but this thing is toast if it comes into the Gulf before it becomes well established, and even then, will likely be weakening as it approaches land.

 

SHIPS doesn't like it...  http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13092912AL9713_ships.txt

 

(* Three day forecast had it moving Northwest between the Caymans and Cuba, or on its way to the Gulf, the Southwest turn was not well forecast.  It was 15 years ago, of course)

[Sunny and Warm]

I hate to wish a Mitch that kills tens of thousands on any poor people in Central America, but the only way 97L ever becomes more than a minimal hurricane, more likely just a TS, is to do what Mitch did, defy forecasts to move out of the Caribbean*, and stay down over high OHC and under favorable shear.

 

5 day 12Z GFS position North of the Yucatan puts it in 20 to 25 knots of SW shear, with the 2 inch plus PW pushed to the East of the Center.

 

Same upper forecast says if 97L can somehow stay South of the Yucatan Channel, it'd be under an anticyclone.

 

0Z Canadian develops a point anticyclone over the top of 97L in the Gulf, but even the Canadian is a high end TS battling dry air issues.

 

Everyone knows of my super-weenie optimism, but this thing is toast if it comes into the Gulf before it becomes well established, and even then, will likely be weakening as it approaches land.

 

SHIPS doesn't like it...  http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13092912AL9713_ships.txt

 

(* Three day forecast had it moving Northwest between the Caymans and Cuba, or on its way to the Gulf, the Southwest turn was not well forecast.  It was 15 years ago, of course)

I know you're not suggesting otherwise, but the difference in model accuracy from when Mitch was around to now is astounding.  I can't imagine at least some models not sniffing out a "Mitch" scenario by now if it were in the cards. 

[Ed Lizard]

I know you're not suggesting otherwise, but the difference in model accuracy from when Mitch was around to now is astounding.  I can't imagine at least some models not sniffing out a "Mitch" scenario by now if it were in the cards. 

 

The '15 years ago' comment was in regards to improvements in track forecasting.  Main point, this is a dead invest walking if it follows most guidance into the Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

It's weird, though, that:

 

1)  The NHC's TWO wording seems to suggest the SE Gulf will be hospitable:  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

 

2) The intensity guidance, while not exactly amazeballz, doesn't show any substantial weakening later in the period, when it would presumably be gaining latitude.  (There's  some leveling off or slight decrease after 84 h, but nothing dramatic.)

 

I know I'm grasping at straws here, but perhaps the future isn't as grim as is being suggested.

[HurricaneJosh]

Did I imagine it, or did the GFS really just totally crap out with 97L?

[GaWx]

Did I imagine it, or did the GFS really just totally crap out with 97L?

 

 Yes, it pretty much crapped out on it a number of runs ago. This is the 3rd Invest the GFS has done that to since August (one in August/two in Sep.). For all three, it showed at least a TS hit the US Gulf Coast on multiple runs whereas the Euro had zilch! These three invests were all in the Caribbean at the time the GFS was getting the most excited. So, the Euro has been much more reliable regarding Invests in the Caribbean that turned out to do nothing in the Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes, it pretty much crapped out on it a number of runs ago. This is the 3rd Invest the GFS has done that to since August (one in August/two in Sep.). For all three, it showed at least a TS hit the US Gulf Coast on multiple runs whereas the Euro had zilch! These three invests were all in the Caribbean at the time the GFS was getting the most excited. So, the Euro has been much more reliable regarding Invests in the Caribbean that turned out to do nothing in the Gulf.

Ah, OK-- I guess I missed the last couple of runs. I noticed it had gotten weaker, but now it seems like it just went POOF!!

So pathetic. Someone needs to get a shotgun and put the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season out of its misery. It's like a diseased horse sprawled on the side of the pasture.

[Ed Lizard]

18Z FIM gets a minimal tropical storm to Louisiana next weekend.

 

 

12Z GFDL ensembles got me excited until I realized they haven't been run for this weekend's 97L

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Ah, OK-- I guess I missed the last couple of runs. I noticed it had gotten weaker, but now it seems like it just went POOF!!

So pathetic. Someone needs to get a shotgun and put the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season out of its misery. It's like a diseased horse sprawled on the side of the pasture.

 

 Interestingly and kind of ironically: as soon as we talk about the GFS completely going POOF with 97L for a number of runs through 12Z Sunday, the subsequent two runs (18Z Sun and 0Z Mon) actually have a weak closed surface low (~1010 mb) make it into the western GOM this Thu-Fri. Let's see if this is the start of a new trend.

 

Edit: Fwiw (near nothing), the 0Z Monday GFS way out in fantasyland has an interesting scenario with a strong blocking western Atlantic high (persistent Bermuda high displaced to the north, perhaps in response to a strong upper trough near the Rockies) 10/7-14 that directs a developing homegrown tropical low that forms 10/9 near 26N, 68W, and then is directed by that strong high WNWard to near 31N, 76 W on 10/11. Then, it recurves sharply and skirts NC 10/13 before being absorbed by a cold front 10/14 along the NE coast.

[wxtrackercody]

I doubt 97L develops into a tropical cyclone. It has a strung out and weak area of low-level vorticity battling 20 knots of shear with very dry air lurking to the northwest. It has no substantial model support to develop either.

 

Of course, what else would we expect from 2013? 

[HurricaneJosh]

97L looks like a joke. There's no convection. It's bald. Lolz.

[GaWx]

Interestingly and kind of ironically: as soon as we talk about the GFS completely going POOF with 97L for a number of runs through 12Z Sunday, the subsequent two runs (18Z Sun and 0Z Mon) actually have a weak closed surface low (~1010 mb) make it into the western GOM this Thu-Fri. Let's see if this is the start of a new trend.

The 0Z Mon Euro actually now has a very weak sfc low in the NW GOM 10/5 that then moves ENE just off the coast and gets down to 1007 mb (probably not fully tropical) as it crosses the FL panhandle 10/6. Teeny weeny baby steps on the way to being a player or just a tease? You decide.

Edit: the Monday 6z GFS pretty much drops the western Gulf weak low that was on the prior two runs. However, way out in dreamland (10/14), it has a very weak closed (1011 mb) tropical surface low move NWard into the far north FL peninsula from the Atlantic beneath that aforementioned strong northerly displaced Bermudaish high (surface and aloft).

[Ed Lizard]

Silver lining alert on the 97L fail.

 

If it stays a shallow system, while modelling suggests moisture below 700 mb on SE winds probably doesn't quite make it to SETX before the strong weekend front, I am going to remain optimistic, at least a little, on enhanced moisture in place.

 

And I don't just keep my eyes out for EastPac Narda and Octave (cool name, or what) for the 1994 Rosa potential, but only 64 years since a Pacific system crossed Tehuanepec and no doubt brought needed October rain to Southeast Texas.

 

 

In even more trivial news, 11L is now Jerry...

[klw]

We have TS Jerry.

 

Remain calm and I think we may be able to ride this out safely.  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#JERRY

[phil882]

We have TS Jerry.

 

Remain calm and I think we may be able to ride this out safely.  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#JERRY

 

NHC is going to have to make some substantial adjustments to their forecast with Jerry, its much further north and east of the current position and forecast as the mid-level vortex has been able to remain vertically coupled with the low-level circulation. 

 

It appears that weak upper-level low that has been gradually decaying is diving southward and providing a temporary relaxation of the shear over Jerry today. 

[wxmeddler]

[Chaser25973]

I've never seen such a stretch of ugly looking TC's before... this is extending years. I think the last time we saw a series of good cans and tropical storms was the super year of 2005. 

[Ed Lizard]

I've never seen such a stretch of ugly looking TC's before... this is extending years. I think the last time we saw a series of good cans and tropical storms was the super year of 2005. 

 

 

I thought Gustav was ok.

 

[thewxmann]

I've never seen such a stretch of ugly looking TC's before... this is extending years. I think the last time we saw a series of good cans and tropical storms was the super year of 2005. 

 

Igor in 2010 was nice. Nothing since then though...

[wxmx]

Dean and Felix were kind of meh...but what would you expect from cat 5 canes?

[phil882]

 Dean and Felix were kind of meh...but what would you expect from cat 5 canes?

 

... I don't think people realize how spoiled we were in 2005, that was a once in a lifetime year. Even the last 4-5 years have been well above normal. Only 2012 and 2013 have been below normal in terms of accumulated energy. 

[phil882]

Jerry has some curved bands and has become decidedly more symmetrical. 

 

 

[Supercane]

... I don't think people realize how spoiled we were in 2005, that was a once in a lifetime year. Even the last 4-5 years have been well above normal. Only 2012 and 2013 have been below normal in terms of accumulated energy. 

 

2012 had an ACE of 133, which is above average (and greater than the ACE of 2011, I might add). Unless you're talking about a different measure of energy?

 

Either way, I certainly agree with your broader point.

[klw]

Igor in 2010 was nice. Nothing since then though...

There was this one for a short spell last fall

[wxtrackercody]

Hmm.

 

Eyewall open to the southeast?

 

[GaWx]

 The 18Z GFS is back to having a closed surface low though weak in the GOM. It moves northerly from 10/3 through 10/5 and "landfalls" in AL.

 

 In fantasyland, it has that western Atlantic couplet of a strong high over a developing TC 10/10, but the TC then recurves E of the CONUS through the end of the run 10/16.

[wxmx]

97L is getting better organized...at least it has convection over the area with the highest low level vorticity and is under a somewhat favorable upper level regime. Mid level vorticity is well displaced to the east still, so I wouldn't expect any sudden strengthening just yet. Next step would be a solid CDO which would rebuild/drag the mid level energy to stack it on top of the low level energy.

[Santa Claus]

Jerry looking quite well organized now but lacking in cold cloud tops despite the sun being absent.  NHC predicts a marginal chance of a hurricane... though it's a bit like saying a 10% lemon has a marginal chance of becoming a TC.  Too bad it's going to drag itself back over its own path although it probably hasn't upwelled too much cold water, being so weak.

[GaWx]

97L is getting better organized...at least it has convection over the area with the highest low level vorticity and is under a somewhat favorable upper level regime. Mid level vorticity is well displaced to the east still, so I wouldn't expect any sudden strengthening just yet. Next step would be a solid CDO which would rebuild/drag the mid level energy to stack it on top of the low level energy.

 

TWO chances went from 10/30 at 2 PM to 20/30 at 8 PM to 30/50 at 2 AM.

 

 The 0Z Tue GFS was another run that had a very weak closed surface low in the GOM fwiw.

[bluewave]

This was the first time since 1994 that we had no Cat 2 hurricane through September.