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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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Sea surface temperatures have been 28-29C throughout. I doubt that's the issue.

 

But the change in where the warmer anomalies are located this year relative to the last few is the most obvious difference.

Just looking at the at the what the actual SST's are won't tell you the whole story. These SST's the result of this being

the first summer since 2006 with a +NAO  which is a big change from the -NAO dominated 2007-2012.

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What about Easy 1950?  It didn't go directly over Tampa but then again neither did 1921. 

Easy 1950 was up in Cedar Key.

 

A direct hit means the inner core (not necessarily the eye) passed over the city-- which is what happened in 1921.  Another example of a direct hit without being in the eye would be Mobile, AL, in Frederic 1979.

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What about Easy 1950?  It didn't go directly over Tampa but then again neither did 1921. 

I think the eyewall of Easy touched Pinellas and Pasco counties as it moved slowly north.  There was also a cat 1 in the mid 40s that moved directly up from the south. In this area with our population and lack of storms recently, a cat 1 would be a huge deal.  Also, this is the anniversary of the 1896 Cedar Key hurricane, which wiped out Cedar Key (killed 100) and allowed Tampa to become the port city on the FL West Coast. 

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I think the eyewall of Easy touched Pinellas and Pasco counties as it moved slowly north.  There was also a cat 1 in the mid 40s that moved directly up from the south. In this area with our population and lack of storms recently, a cat 1 would be a huge deal.  Also, this is the anniversary of the 1896 Cedar Key hurricane, which wiped out Cedar Key (killed 100) and allowed Tampa to become the port city on the FL West Coast. 

 

Easy's core did not affect Tampa or St. Petersburg but came close.

 

The Gulf Coast of FL around Tampa actually saw a few hurricanes in the mid-1940s-- listed below, with landfall points.  The one you're talking about was the 1946 storm.  Although none were major, direct hits, there were a lot of impacts on the metro area:

 

Oct 1944 - Venice, FL - 90 kt

Jun 1945 - Brooksville, FL - 70 kt

Oct 1946 - Brandenton, FL - 75 kt

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Easy 1950 was up in Cedar Key.

 

A direct hit means the inner core (not necessarily the eye) passed over the city-- which is what happened in 1921.  Another example of a direct hit without being in the eye would be Mobile, AL, in Frederic 1979.

 

Yes, I'm aware that being within the eyewall still constitutes a direct hit.  I was under the impression the core of Easy did go over Tampa but it appears I was mistaken. 

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Yes, I'm aware that being within the eyewall still constitutes a direct hit.  I was under the impression the core of Easy did go over Tampa but it appears I was mistaken. 

 

Nope, it didn't.  Tampa/St. Petersburg has gone longer than any other major population center along the Gulf Coast without a direct hit from a major.

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In talking with some of the locals over the years, it is very likely that the eyewall came onshore or extremely close during Easy.  Of course, there is no way to know. I recently spoke with a 78 year old who has lived here is whole life. He said the worst storm he has ever seen was Easy '50, nothing else has come close.  He said whole houses on Clearwater Beach were being swept into the Gulf.  

 

The Oct 1946 "hurricane" is shown making landfall on the coast of Manatee Co then the next point is north of Pinellas Co as a TS. So it would've had to go directly over Pinellas/Tampa Bay to get between the two points as it made a transition from Cat 1 to TS.  Still probably a wet and windy Oct storm but the center very likely came directly over.

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In talking with some of the locals over the years, it is very likely that the eyewall came onshore or extremely close during Easy.  Of course, there is no way to know. I recently spoke with a 78 year old who has lived here is whole life. He said the worst storm he has ever seen was Easy '50, nothing else has come close.  He said whole houses on Clearwater Beach were being swept into the Gulf.

I read the reanalysis of Easy, done by Andrew Hagen a couple of years ago, and it seemed like the core stayed just offshore of Pinellas County. The center got no closer than ~30-40 mi, and the RMW wasn't that big-- only ~15 n mi. Up N, where it came ashore, it was a very severe storm-- a high-end Cat 3 and possibly higher.

 

The Oct 1946 "hurricane" is shown making landfall on the coast of Manatee Co then the next point is north of Pinellas Co as a TS. So it would've had to go directly over Pinellas/Tampa Bay to get between the two points as it made a transition from Cat 1 to TS.  Still probably a wet and windy Oct storm but the center very likely came directly over.

Why do you say "hurricane" in quotes? It was a hurricane-- at least as per recent reanalysis. The landfall point was set at 27.5N 82.6W: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/1944-1953_Published_Paper.pdf

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I don't understand how the 1946 Hurricane is not considered a direct hit on Tampa Bay. But no one talks about it and there isn't much record of damage.  Without recon/radar we won't know.

Huh? It is considered a direct hit.

It just wasn't a major. But it's considered the last direct hurricane hit on the city.

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Ha ha ha, thanks for posting this.   :)

 

Wilma was awesome.  No, it wasn't a tight-core deal when it hit FL, but it was just very robust and powerful.  It was a great storm.  I'll never forget that backside, after the eye passed-- how potent it was.

 

The backside was pretty strong. I think it caught a lot of people off guard. Was also my first and only time I was in the eye of a hurricane. 

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The 18zGFS is developing in that area of convection at 14N 73W when the best vorticity is with the wave at 13.9N 77.5W which would make all the difference in possible landfall location next week so that could be a case of convective feedback from the GFS which it sometimes has problems with but not to the degree of the CMC

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