Guest Imperator Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sandy. Sandy Sandy Sandy. It seems everytime a storm shows up on a model over the past year whether its a noreaster, blizzard or tropical system, people automatically want to compare the situation to Sandy no matter how different it is. Its annoying and bothersome for those of us that actually lived through Sandy and its after effects ( and not from the sidelines like most of you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sandy Sandy Sandy. It seems everytime a storm shows up on a model over the past year whether its a noreaster, blizzard or tropical system, people automatically want to compare the situation to Sandy no matter how different it is. Its annoying and bothersome for those of us that actually lived through Sandy and its after effects ( and not from the sidelines like most of you). Sunny did not compare it to Sandy, only pointed out where GGEM did a reasonable job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 TS conditions on the Long Island and New Jersey coast would be a decent consolation prize. Anyone hoping for this again for us needs their head examined. Sorry. I was born in Flushing, grew up in Massapequa, missed 5 days of school in the 1978 Blizzard, saw cable TV for the first time when we evac'd for Belle, and missed Gloria in the Navy. I have found out, the house corner of Curlew and Leewater in Nassau Shores I grew up in, it did flood in Sandy, but was repaired, on the market, asking half of million, which is double what a house of similar square footage would sell for in Houston. BTW, I could root for 1938 to happen next week, but I have remarkably little ability to actually control the weather. Houston wouldn't have had a drought this Summer if my wishes came true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'm not surprised that the op GFS is not picking up on anything yet. The GFS still had Sandy backing into Cape Cod while the rest of the guidance envelop was into NJ and the Delmarva. Look at the amazing support from the 06z GEFS for a strong low pressure system near NYC next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sandy Sandy Sandy. It seems everytime a storm shows up on a model over the past year whether its a noreaster, blizzard or tropical system, people automatically want to compare the situation to Sandy no matter how different it is. Its annoying and bothersome for those of us that actually lived through Sandy and its after effects ( and not from the sidelines like most of you). Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning... Sunny did not compare it to Sandy, only pointed out where GGEM did a reasonable job. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'm not surprised that the op GFS is not picking up on anything yet. The GFS still had Sandy backing into Cape Cod while the rest of the guidance envelop was into NJ and the Delmarva. Look at the amazing support from the 06z GEFS for a strong low pressure system near NYC next Sunday. You're joking, Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 You're joking, Right? 1024 mb high could explain how Euro could have an area of 65-70 knot winds North of a 996-1000 mb low. 1018 mb isobar right through middle of New England on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Jim cantore tweeted about it & Ryan maue to @JimCantore: @RyanMaue The EURO though with that left hook brought back some memories. Could be interesting. @RyanMaue: @JimCantore track isn't so "unprecedented" as media led us to believe with #Sandy last year. Blocks mean bad weather for someone somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXTransplant Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Euro has 1000 mb low making landfall just S of NYC in New Jersey at 156 hours... At 120 hours, Euro has small area of hurricane force sustained 10 meter winds North of the low, but, sadly, weakens it through landfall. Gale to storm force winds on immediate coast at hour 144. Part of Long Island would still ahve 40-45 knot onshore winds at Hour 156 at system landfalls. Amazing if NYC area gets 3 TCs/ sub-TCs in 3 years, and Florida goes eight years w/o a hurricane. Everyone wants a tight core Florida major, but failing that, a New Jersey sub-tropical storm (and I believe it it did achieve hurricane force winds there is no such term as a sub-tropical hurricane) with TS conditions on the Long Island and New Jersey coast would be a decent consolation prize. Edit to Add: No Joe Bastardi tweets yet. Many false positives, but rarely does a system develop w/o a JB tweet. He did tweet it early this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 You're joking, Right? My bad, should have looked at it more closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 My bad, should have looked at it more closely. It happens dude, I can see how that got confusing. Actually happened to me this morning when I thought there was a localized temp inversion just to find out the ASOS was broken at one of the stations. I should've looked at the wind speeds and other stations to verify that but it was just a quick glance and post type thing. I just checked the GEFS mean spread and it's not hinting at anything yet, as expected, but if the GFS decides to jump on board, which is anyone's guess really, that'll be bound to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Is the global warming thing a joke? Not really going to discuss this further in this thread but I recall a paper where the negative correlation is mentioned. Pure speculation still at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Not really going to discuss this further in this thread but I recall a paper where the negative correlation is mentioned. Pure speculation still at this point. If I remember correctly, I believe the idea is not necessarily that warm = negative/positive towards TC formation... it's more about the mean energy in the atmosphere at different latitudes. Since tropical cyclones are pretty much the largest energy transfer from the tropics to the mid-latitudes and therefore exist to attempt to balance the energy between these two areas... if the difference in energy between these two areas decrease, then the need for tropical cyclones to balance the energy between these two areas also decrease. That said, the decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the past several years is likely just an effect of the PDO and/or some other yet-to-be-discovered oscillation and not global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 3h Bad SST observation still out in Gulf of Mexico off Tampa. Shows up in ECMWF ensemble precip fields as a void. pic.twitter.com/flVprDZbmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 CMC but, the idea is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 CMC but, the idea is there. The GFS is farther East, but the Canadian is not completely in left field... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z ECM is similar to the previous run; while being quite a bit slower. Getting closer to the "lock in" range for the euro. Near-miss recurve at hr 144 due to slower movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z Euro hour 138 about 100 miles or so due east of the Delmarva peninsula. A hair weaker than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I mean, there's a closed low, but it's like 998mb and a very unimpressive precip shield north of HAT. Maybe - MAYBE - gales at the coast as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I mean, there's a closed low, but it's like 998mb and a very unimpressive precip shield north of HAT. Maybe - MAYBE - gales at the coast as modeled. 0Z Euro (can't see the 12Z graphics yet) had 65-70 knot 10 meter winds North of its surface low at hour 120 because of the gradient, and on the AccuWx PPV map it was below 1000 mb but above 996 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0Z Euro (can't see the 12Z graphics yet) had 65-70 knot 10 meter winds North of its surface low at hour 120 because of the gradient, and on the AccuWx PPV map it was below 1000 mb but above 996 mb.EarthSat wasn't showing anything over 50kts at 0z and nothing over 40kts at 12z, and those are all marine exposure. I didn't see anything that showed anywhere close to hurricane strength at 10m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0Z Euro (can't see the 12Z graphics yet) had 65-70 knot 10 meter winds North of its surface low at hour 120 because of the gradient, and on the AccuWx PPV map it was below 1000 mb but above 996 mb. EarthSat wasn't showing anything over 50kts at 0z and nothing over 40kts at 12z, and those are all marine exposure. I didn't see anything that showed anywhere close to hurricane strength at 10m.Nvm, I see it on Accuwx. Not sure how their algorithm differs from EarthSat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z ECM is similar to the previous run; while being quite a bit slower. Getting closer to the "lock in" range for the euro. Near-miss recurve at hr 144 due to slower movement. How is making "landfall" in SNJ, heading north into upstate NY (Oz) "similar" to remaining SE of Montauk point heading northeast (12z)? The February Blizzard was much stronger than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Welcome to the desert BRO came close to the lowest PW on record for this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'd argue at D+5-6, showing a left turn toward the CONUS and passing over ACK is similar to making left turn toward the CONUS and brushing ACY. It's not like we're talking about short range details here. There is clearly less than a 1SD difference in track for this time range. I don't know what you're getting in such a twist about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 This looks more like an early season Nor'easter than anything purely tropical to me. This is very much unlike sandy which was a a purely tropical entity before it interacted with a mid-latitude trough along the Florida coastline. You can clearly see the baroclinic nature of this disturbance as it undergoes genesis. Maybe it becomes subtropical at some point, but even at 96 hours I still see frontal features (warm front stretching westward over Bermuda). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 This looks more like an early season Nor'easter than anything purely tropical to me. This is very much unlike sandy which was a a purely tropical entity before it interacted with a mid-latitude trough along the Florida coastline. You can clearly see the baroclinic nature of this disturbance as it undergoes genesis. Maybe it becomes subtropical at some point, but even at 96 hours I still see frontal features (warm front stretching westward over Bermuda). More like the November Nor'Easter of 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2013 Author Share Posted September 25, 2013 The models remain mind-blowingly dull. It's hard to even find a coherent low going 10 days out in either the GFS or Euro, in either the NATL or the EPAC. It's seriously just... weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 More like the November Nor'Easter of 2009. that had a mostly tropical origin feeding into the nontrop entity (Ida). This will have some tropical moisture but no tropical parent (in all likelihood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 The best that I can tell, this is the first time through the end of September that there were no major hurricanes without an El Nino or -AMO in the last 100 years. Just goes to show how rare this season is turning out to be so far. Years with no major hurricanes through September 1994...-AMO...El Nino 1986...-AMO....El Nino 1972....-AMO...El Nino 1968....-AMO...El Nino..weak 1962.....neg to neutral AMO with 1 Cat 2 through September 1946................El Nino 1940...............El Nino 1939...............El Nino 1934...............strongly - SOI 1925....-AMO....El Nino 1920.....-AMO 1914.....-AMO..El Nino 1913.....-AMO..El Nino 1912.....-AMO...-SOI 1911.....-AMO..El Nino 1910......-AMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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