klw Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Is the burst in the SE Gulf worth paying attention to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Is the burst in the SE Gulf worth paying attention to? Depends on what you consider worth paying attention to, I guess. I am thinking that this is the beginning of the system that the EC/GGEM have been showing crossing FL and then developing in a more extratropical fashion NE of the Bahamas later this week. At least in the GFS, it looks like the upper jet that is imparting shear onto this system currently will be pulling away and allowing the shear to decrease, potentially allowing some development before it makes FL. But as we have seen so many times of late, to me it's just something to keep an eye on rather than having any significant higher end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 SPC mesoanlysis suggests the corpse of 95L isn't really frontal, with the actual surface low in 76ºF or above dewpoints, with the actual surface front right on the coast. 20 knots of Northerly shear now, but NAM shows surface low in favorable 250 mb jet region for lift with center under favorable shear. That said, if NAM, which develops everything, loses the corpse of 95L in a couple of days, it won't develop. If JB says it won't develop, it won't develop. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h Awesome shot of 95L, trying to fight the dry air and get some convection.. #losingbattle pic.twitter.com/o9Rm3ziMdy But it is fun to watch a spin off the coast with occasional puffs of convection and pretend Texas had a tropical cyclone season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 The fact that it's not even a Lemon is pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 GFS analysis of PW suggests why my pet offshore Texas swirl, the corpse of 95L won't develop, with sub 2 inch PW being pushed at it. Caribbean starts to get interesting in 8 days per GFS, might be something that gets South Florida. (Also on the Canadian) Could be Karen, I can see a STS Jerry in the modelling. The GFS Hour 192 Caribbean system isn't all that impressive, but it is a week away. Sure, nobody cares about sub-tropical low moving East into the ocean, but that means we'll have Jerry in 2019 to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 This zit is ripe for popping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Got excited until I saw the IR. The late-day visibles always exaggerate stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Dont know why they demoted the lemon... Trivia stuff: One record was broken this season...the westernmost cyclogenesis in the basin with TD8...it will be hard to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Got excited until I saw the IR. The late-day visibles always exaggerate stuff. late day viisibles tend to throw some shadows and make things look more impressive than they really are.....however, have I detected a slight loss of latitude with the last scans??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Its elongated to the NE, but convection is in the SW lobe...NE half is losing definition as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 LOL. That thing puts Don to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 That's an awfully crappy WV image of the Gulf for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 That's an awfully crappy WV image of the Gulf for September. Welcome to the desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Welcome to the desert Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming). Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming). Yes You're attributing the lull to climate change? Seems like a rather bold correlation to draw. Despite the unbelievable crappiness of this year, I think it's a bit much to attribute what's basically a pinprick in the grand scheme to such a large-scale evolutionary process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming). Is the global warming thing a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 You're attributing the lull to climate change? Seems like a rather bold correlation to draw. Despite the unbelievable crappiness of this year, I think it's a bit much to attribute what's basically a pinprick in the grand scheme to such a large-scale evolutionary process. And here I thought global warming contributed to increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 And here I thought global warming contributed to increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. *shrug* Well, I have absolutely no opinion on this-- but if folks are going to dip a toe in there, I feel it should be qualified somehow, and not just a drive-by comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Well, I have absolutely no opinion on this-- but if folks are going to dip a toe in there, I feel it should be qualified somehow, and not just a drive-by comment. I would be absolutely intrigued to see how global warming decreases the frequency of hurricanes. It's not something I've heard of either before and I would be fascinated by a full explanation. A lot of great minds on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 I would be absolutely intrigued to see how global warming decreases the frequency of hurricanes. It's not something I've heard of either before and I would be fascinated by a full explanation. A lot of great minds on here... Oh, I've heard arguments both ways. But either way, I don't think a season or two demonstrates a connection that can be meaningfully discussed. These are really long-term, slow processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 The Euro is showing something funny in the Day 5-6 range. Not my cup of tea, but I'm sure interesting to some: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The Euro is showing something funny in the Day 5-6 range. Not my cup of tea, but I'm sure interesting to some: Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif How can I tell if that's warm or cold core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 How can I tell if that's warm or cold core? 850-500 mb temps are usually good indicators of that. Euro has it as a warm core but it's not all that pretty looking. It seems to form off the Carolinas so if anything were to develop, it's "tropical" characteristics will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 the area on the Euro in 5 days is the area in the eastern Gulf right now, could become interesting if the dry air doesn't get too involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0z GGEM shows something along the east coast 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0z GGEM shows something along the east coast GEM picked this up quite early, much like it did Sandy. The fact that the Euro is hinting at something too makes it interesting considering that it picked up on Sandy early as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Posting the GGEM is equivalent of posting spam. It overdoes everything. It's Op run is not supported by its Ensembles either. Same for the Euro Ensembles vs its Op run. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Posting the GGEM is equivalent of posting spam. It overdoes everything. It's Op run is not supported by its Ensembles either. Same for the Euro Ensembles vs its Op run. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=156 I agree that the op. CMC is pretty bad and usually overdoes things. However, don't forget that it did best with Gabrielle. I know that's not saying too much since the gfs and Euro had essentially nothing, but I'm just saying it has found the nut on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0z GGEM shows something along the east coast 0z GGEM Euro has 1000 mb low making landfall just S of NYC in New Jersey at 156 hours... At 120 hours, Euro has small area of hurricane force sustained 10 meter winds North of the low, but, sadly, weakens it through landfall. Gale to storm force winds on immediate coast at hour 144. Part of Long Island would still ahve 40-45 knot onshore winds at Hour 156 at system landfalls. Amazing if NYC area gets 3 TCs/ sub-TCs in 3 years, and Florida goes eight years w/o a hurricane. Everyone wants a tight core Florida major, but failing that, a New Jersey sub-tropical storm (and I believe it it did achieve hurricane force winds there is no such term as a sub-tropical hurricane) with TS conditions on the Long Island and New Jersey coast would be a decent consolation prize. Edit to Add: No Joe Bastardi tweets yet. Many false positives, but rarely does a system develop w/o a JB tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.