Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[wxmeddler]

She be goin' around the deck like a bosun who's ship just ran out of water. Arrggghh. Any more of this and she be WALKIN' THE PLANK!

[HurricaneJosh]

So the 00Z GFS and Euro remain extremely boring in both the NATL and EPAC for 10 days and beyond.  Wow-- craptastic September.

[NaoPos]

So the 00Z GFS and Euro remain extremely boring in both the NATL and EPAC for 10 days and beyond. Wow-- craptastic SEASON***

Fixed. Wish I could say it was banter too. Keep your fingers crossed, maybe the 2nd half of September can deliver some home brew in the gulf or SE coast.

[bluewave]

It's really odd that we are having a year with no majors through September like 

1994, but without the big traditional negatives that season had. September

1994 featured an unfavorable MJO for the Atlantic along with a strongly

negative SOI and cold AMO.

 

SOI with developing El Nino

 

1994 -1.6 0.6 -10.6 -22.8 -13.0 -10.4 -18.0 -17.2 -17.2 -14.1 -7.3 -11.6

 

MJO

 

 

AMO

 

1994 -0.272 -0.289 -0.259 -0.176 -0.186 -0.202 -0.209 -0.207 -0.117 -0.023 0.005 -0.075

[HurricaneJosh]

Fixed. Wish I could say it was banter too. Keep your fingers crossed, maybe the 2nd half of September can deliver some home brew in the gulf or SE coast.

 

Yep.  At this point, I'm just pinning my hopes on October, which can often be very hawt with W-basin action.

 

Cape Verde season is over.

[HM]

 

It's really odd that we are having a year with no majors through September like 

1994, but without the big traditional negatives that season had.

 

Indeed it is odd but necessary (and inevitable) for the sake of long range tropical forecasting. Things got pretty stale, in that department, with forecasts seemingly the same from each outfit, year-to-year. This year will force the experts in this field to reassess what is important and possibly look into new areas. Will next year's forecasts use the same, failing, formula anyway?

So far, I have heard things expressed about reasons why this season has been so dead, but they aren't really answering the question either (just creating more). Most likely it was/is the combination of factors before and during the season that led to a new precedent.

[wxsmwhrms]

Not that this will get anyone interested in chasing excited (LOL) but the models seems to be coming into better consensus on some sort of hybrid system developing over the northwestern Gulf - likely some kludge merging of 95L, convection coming off of TX, and the tail end of the front with upper divergence in the right entrance region of the upper jet.  UK has been the most consistent in showing this evolution, and this morning's 12Z GFS is now on board.  GGEM is most aggressive, having the system meander over the Gulf long enough to become more purely tropical, making landfall as a sub-1000 mb low over Vermilion Bay in about 5 days.

[Ed Lizard]

Not that this will get anyone interested in chasing excited (LOL) but the models seems to be coming into better consensus on some sort of hybrid system developing over the northwestern Gulf - likely some kludge merging of 95L, convection coming off of TX, and the tail end of the front with upper divergence in the right entrance region of the upper jet.  UK has been the most consistent in showing this evolution, and this morning's 12Z GFS is now on board.  GGEM is most aggressive, having the system meander over the Gulf long enough to become more purely tropical, making landfall as a sub-1000 mb low over Vermilion Bay in about 5 days.

 

I'd be so excited by a solution showing in excess of four inches of rain IMBY if it wasn't the Canadian.  GFS solution isn't terrible, close to 2 inches, which would be much better if the low were 50 or 100 miles closer to the coast.

 

I appreciate the desire for Usagi type Cat 5 imagery and chases, often overlooked is the importance of tropical weather to agriculture and horticulture..  And, frankly, I welcome the return of the cold AMO.  Less storms, but more rain back in the 80s and early 90s, and while there were less storms, there were still Gilberts, Hugos and Andrews for high end chaseable storms.  Ask Josh if he'd trade in this season for 1988 or 1992.

 

Naked swirl approaching landfall, and still generating outflows from weak attempts at convection, which is impressive, CIMSS invest floater PW product doesn't look dry at all.

 

 

The wind barbs are confusing me.  Or not, judging by the text...

 

76692 Hacienda Ylang Ylang Ver Observations at 12Z 20 Sep 2013

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1006.0     13   24.8   23.2     91  18.17    240      1  297.4  350.3  300.7 1000.0     62   24.8   23.9     95  19.09    210      7  297.9  353.6  301.3  925.0    747   22.4   20.8     91  17.03    170     18  302.2  352.7  305.3  879.0   1189   20.2   18.8     91  15.75    195    312  304.4  351.5  307.3  863.0   1348   19.4   18.0     91  15.30    185    311  305.2  351.1  308.0  857.0   1408   19.1   17.7     91  15.13    185    112  305.5  351.0  308.2

[tmagan]

 

I'd be so excited by a solution showing in excess of four inches of rain IMBY if it wasn't the Canadian.  GFS solution isn't terrible, close to 2 inches, which would be much better if the low were 50 or 100 miles closer to the coast.

 

I appreciate the desire for Usagi type Cat 5 imagery and chases, often overlooked is the importance of tropical weather to agriculture and horticulture..  And, frankly, I welcome the return of the cold AMO.  Less storms, but more rain back in the 80s and early 90s, and while there were less storms, there were still Gilberts, Hugos and Andrews for high end chaseable storms.  Ask Josh if he'd trade in this season for 1988 or 1992.

 

Naked swirl approaching landfall, and still generating outflows from weak attempts at convection, which is impressive, CIMSS invest floater PW product doesn't look dry at all.

 

 

The wind barbs are confusing me.  Or not, judging by the text...

 

76692 Hacienda Ylang Ylang Ver Observations at 12Z 20 Sep 2013

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1006.0     13   24.8   23.2     91  18.17    240      1  297.4  350.3  300.7 1000.0     62   24.8   23.9     95  19.09    210      7  297.9  353.6  301.3  925.0    747   22.4   20.8     91  17.03    170     18  302.2  352.7  305.3  879.0   1189   20.2   18.8     91  15.75    195    312  304.4  351.5  307.3  863.0   1348   19.4   18.0     91  15.30    185    311  305.2  351.1  308.0  857.0   1408   19.1   17.7     91  15.13    185    112  305.5  351.0  308.2

I looked at another data source, and here is what I got:

[Wannabehippie]

Yep.  At this point, I'm just pinning my hopes on October, which can often be very hawt with W-basin action.

 

Cape Verde season is over.

We had a Cape Verde season this year?

 

It will be very interesting to see the post season analysis of why the season was so quiet.

[wxsmwhrms]

We had a Cape Verde season this year?

 

It will be very interesting to see the post season analysis of why the season was so quiet.

 

Yeah, there was a Cape Verde season this year.  And it was LITERALLY a Cape Verde season- that's the only place it impacted.

[bluewave]

 

 

Indeed it is odd but necessary (and inevitable) for the sake of long range tropical forecasting. Things got pretty stale, in that department, with forecasts seemingly the same from each outfit, year-to-year. This year will force the experts in this field to reassess what is important and possibly look into new areas. Will next year's forecasts use the same, failing, formula anyway?

So far, I have heard things expressed about reasons why this season has been so dead, but they aren't really answering the question either (just creating more). Most likely it was/is the combination of factors before and during the season that led to a new precedent.

 

It seems like the underlying issues with the dry and more stable conditions of recent years were able to completely

overwhelm the Tropical Atlantic this year. 

[jordanwx]

It seems like the underlying issues with the dry and more stable conditions of recent years were able to completely

overwhelm the Tropical Atlantic this year. 

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The problem is finding what is causing the dry, sinking and stable air mass over the MDR. Few problems I have found:

 

1. Subtropical SST anomaly pattern in the northern Atlantic as it relates to the Hadley cell/meridional overturning.

2. South Atlantic SST anomaly pattern as it relates to the s. hemi. Hadley cell/meridional overturning...this could be one of the biggest problems as the anomalies are quite significant.

3. Strong band of upward motion centered around 10-20N in the EPAC.

[Yeoman]

Has Dr Gray submitted the 12th revision yet?

[wxsmwhrms]

BRO radar and surface obs clearly show the hybrid type low forming east of BRO.  Shorter range models actually did a good job in showing this evolution.

[Ed Lizard]

Other than a possible out of season Cape Verde-ish storm suggested by two different globals, that would probably not get too strong and would probably fish anyway, not seeing any signs of activity either side of North America of interest through the rest of September.  Nothing obvious, anyway, on reliable globals, or looking at GEFS ensembles.

 

[Amped]

Other than a possible out of season Cape Verde-ish storm suggested by two different globals, that would probably not get too strong and would probably fish anyway, not seeing any signs of activity either side of North America of interest through the rest of September.  Nothing obvious, anyway, on reliable globals, or looking at GEFS ensembles.

 

e

 

 

Euro has an extra-tropical storm with a tight core around  216hrs se of Newfoundland. 

 

I don't know why I am still following this season expecting a change.

[Ed Lizard]

BRO radar and surface obs clearly show the hybrid type low forming east of BRO.  Shorter range models actually did a good job in showing this evolution.

Pressure below 1006 mb (29.70") at a buoy off Texas.  SPC mesoanalysis, the front hasn't really reached the center yet, or it could be briefly achieving STD status now.   Not that models do much with it.

 

I still consider it 95L, the multi-day cherry that never developed.

[dizzy9479]

Pressure down at the buoys off Texas down to 29.60" (1002 mb) and falling -- no expectations, but interesting nonetheless.

[Sunny and Warm]

so, will it turn out that Humberto and Ingrid were the height of the Atlantic season activity-wise?? I just don't see much the next two weeks, and that takes us into the time period in October where OHC goes past peak as well.

Sorry to be the Debbie Downer, but I think the best level of activity is in the rear view mirror. Doesn't mean a robust storm won't excite us though. Just that the overall number of remaining storms may not impress.

[wxsmwhrms]

Pressure down at the buoys off Texas down to 29.60" (1002 mb) and falling -- no expectations, but interesting nonetheless.

 

Visible satellite imagery and surface obs this morning show a well defined surface low of around 1003 mb centered near 26.5N, 94.5W.  While it clearly has some westerly shear on it, there is actually a fair amount of thunderstorm activity pretty close to the center.  It's obviously not in an environment favorable to do anything high end with some westerly shear and very dry air to its west - but if it could move slowly E/ENE more like the GGEM and UK show and gradually break away from the frontal zone, it would be something to keep an eye on at any rate.

[bluewave]

We would probably need the MJO to move back into a more favorable phase 10-15 to 11-15

to get a shot at bumping the ACE closer to 30 from 23 today. The below 30 ACE season

has been a rarity with the last occurrence in 1983.

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Usually when the Atlantic is quiet, we can turn to the East Pacific...and vice-versa. In the off chance both are quiet in September, we can usually turn to the West Pacific. And we've had Usagi this past week...but other than that, not much of significance (besides Utor).

 

There's something weird going on with the global tropics this year. I just hope it's exclusively this year...

[thewxmann]

Usually when the Atlantic is quiet, we can turn to the East Pacific...and vice-versa. In the off chance both are quiet in September, we can usually turn to the West Pacific. And we've had Usagi this past week...but other than that, not much of significance (besides Utor).

 

There's something weird going on with the global tropics this year. I just hope it's exclusively this year...

 

Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming).

[hurricaneman]

The last few runs of the GFS have been giving a pinpoint of hope in the long run but its the long run so it has to be taken with a grain of salt

[HurricaneJosh]

The last few runs of the GFS have been giving a pinpoint of hope in the long run but its the long run so it has to be taken with a grain of salt

 

I see what you're talking about.  The last few runs have shown a lot of unsettledness across the Caribbean, and I see now a low is forming in Wilma Land very late in the period (like, beyond Day 10).  Is that what you're talking about?

 

P.S.  I quoted you in the thread subtitle.  

[hurricaneman]

I see what you're talking about.  The last few runs have shown a lot of unsettledness across the Caribbean, and I see now a low is forming in Wilma Land very late in the period (like, beyond Day 10).  Is that what you're talking about?

 

P.S.  I quoted you in the thread subtitle.  

yep, and the Canadian also picks up on it, but its the canadian. The biggest thing is that even in real dull seasons this area is one to watch in October and the list o hurricane landfalls in the US from this area are

 

2012 Sandy(still hurricane strength even though just turned ET) 80mph

2005 Wilma 115mph

1999 Irene 80mph

1995 Opal 115mph

1987 Floyd 75mph

1968 Gladys 80mph

1964 Isbell 125mph

1950 King 120mph

1948 Hurricane8 125mph

1947 hurricane8 80mph

1946 hurricane5 75mph

1944 hurricane13 75mph

1926 Havana Hurricane 130mph

1924 Hurricane10 90mph

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane 115mph

 

So in conclusion the Western Caribbean can produce some real monster hurricane landfalls in October as listed above

 

the 0zGFS shows a low forming at about 177hrs and coming very near landfall in Miami to Palm Beach between 252 and 264hrs so the possible formation has moved to about 7 1\2 days which makes it slightly more plausible so this area may need to be watched next week

[HurricaneJosh]

yep, and the Canadian also picks up on it, but its the canadian. The biggest thing is that even in real dull seasons this area is one to watch in October and the list o hurricane landfalls in the US from this area are

 

2012 Sandy(still hurricane strength even though just turned ET) 80mph

2005 Wilma 115mph

1999 Irene 80mph

1995 Opal 115mph

1987 Floyd 75mph

1968 Gladys 80mph

1964 Isbell 125mph

1950 King 120mph

1948 Hurricane8 125mph

1947 hurricane8 80mph

1946 hurricane5 75mph

1944 hurricane13 75mph

1926 Havana Hurricane 130mph

1924 Hurricane10 90mph

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane 115mph

 

So in conclusion the Western Caribbean can produce some real monster hurricane landfalls in October as listed above

 

the 0zGFS shows a low forming at about 177hrs and coming very near landfall in Miami to Palm Beach between 252 and 264hrs so the possible formation has moved to about 7 1\2 days which makes it slightly more plausible so this area may need to be watched next week

 

Oh, yeah-- I'm a big fan of October.  Lots of cool, intense hurricanes have made landfall in October-- not just in the USA, but in MX, Cuba, and Central America:  Hattie 1961, Inez 1966, Joan 1988, Roxanne 1995, Iris 2001, Michelle 2001 (actually November!), Wilma 2005, Richard 2010.

 

I also want to add a couple more notable USA October hurricanes to your list:  

 

*  Lili 2002 (LA) -- Was a Cat 4 just hours before it came ashore.

*  Jerry 1989 (TX) -- Unsual late-season action for TX.

*  Hilda 1964 (LA) -- Powerful Cat 3 in the bayous.

*  Hazel 1954 (SC/NC) -- The strongest known hurricane landfall in NC-- the only Cat 4 for that state, and one of the worst 'canes ever to hit the East Coast.

 

P.S.  I strongly doubt Isbell 1964's winds were that high.  It was a messy, asymmetric "halfacane" battling dry air when it made landfall on FL's Gulf Coast and was probably a Cat 1-- Cat 2 at the most.

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00Z GFS continued to advertise something forming in the W Caribbean and moving N, across Cuba, into SE FL, and then out to sea during the Day 7-12 range.  Just the persistence of something in that general place and time range makes it worth noting, I would think.

[Floydbuster]

The 00Z GFS continued to advertise something forming in the W Caribbean and moving N, across Cuba, into SE FL, and then out to sea during the Day 7-12 range.  Just the persistence of something in that general place and time range makes it worth noting, I would think.

 

You know when someone flirts but they're really just being nice? Josh, wait for Hurricane Gonzalo 2014.