Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[DaculaWeather]

Not sure how this will effect things...

 

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NOUS42 KWNO 191431
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1427Z THU SEP 19 2013

UPDATE FROM NESDIS/SAB...THE PROBLEM WHICH DEVELOPED AT WALLOPS
APPEARS TO HAVE ONLY IMPACTED 1 SET OF GOES E/W IMAGERY AFTER
1315Z.. BUT THAT THEY ARE STILL ASSESSING IF POSSIBLE OUTAGE(S)
TO SATL DATASETS BEYOND THIS SET.  EXACT DETAILS AND HOW LONG OF
ANY OUTAGE WOULD BE WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY FROM
WALLOPS/SOCC.. NESDIS. MORE TO COME AS SOON AS WE ARE INFORMED.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[NJwinter23]

Really? We're rehashing Sandy AGAIN?

 

Hah i knew you would be unhappy, which is why I did implement a 95L comment to my post at least...i mean it's not like were talking about winter storms or the yankees here is it really thaat off-topic?

[Ed Lizard]

Not sure how this will effect things...

 

This alert was generated by the National Weather Service

EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)

from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.

NOUS42 KWNO 191431

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1427Z THU SEP 19 2013

UPDATE FROM NESDIS/SAB...THE PROBLEM WHICH DEVELOPED AT WALLOPS

APPEARS TO HAVE ONLY IMPACTED 1 SET OF GOES E/W IMAGERY AFTER

1315Z.. BUT THAT THEY ARE STILL ASSESSING IF POSSIBLE OUTAGE(S)

TO SATL DATASETS BEYOND THIS SET.  EXACT DETAILS AND HOW LONG OF

ANY OUTAGE WOULD BE WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY FROM

WALLOPS/SOCC.. NESDIS. MORE TO COME AS SOON AS WE ARE INFORMED.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

 

There was a bad frame that showed up about this time yesterday on SSD and ADD imagery, suggesting it was the satellite or ground station, not the web site.

 

Good thing nothing bad is approaching the US coast.

 

Copy and paste of my thoughts on 95L I wrote at KHOU-TV 11 weather forum.  KHOU stands for Houston.

 

The LLC of 95L is almost completely exposed North of the convection.  Arcus clouds also, I think shear and dry air,

Tomorrow's POD not out yet, but I think recon will be cancelled.  CIMSS shows displaced 850 mb and 500 mb vort maxes.  TPW doesn't look bad on MIMIC loop, ( http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif ) but the presentation looks like dry air on visible.

 

Maybe at mid levels.

 

I think 70% may be optimistic.  Shear is less right off the Mexican coast, a quick spin up is possible, but I don't see how this gets to be much.  12Z SHIPS guidance with secret official NHC track clearly keeps it offshore, and shows no real intensification until 48 hours when shear relaxes.  56 knots SHIPS and Decay SHIPS in 120 hours, a Cat 1 hurricane on LGEM intensity.  I can guess what the NHC secret track is reasonably well looking at TVCN, a slow drift West than Northwest and still offshore.  I think BAM guidance might actually be better, because 95L looks that bad.

[DaculaWeather]

Back to normal

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from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.
NOUS42 KWNO 191455
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1457Z THU SEP 19 2013

12Z GFS BEGAN ON TIME.

UPDATE FROM NESDIS/SAB ON THE WALLOPS POWER OUTAGE..GOES E/W
IMAGERY AND SOME DATASETS APPEAR TO HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL
PROCESSING... ALL IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE UPDATING INTO AWIPS.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[phil882]

Yea 95L might have a closed circulation, but its being partially sheared by the outflow of Manuel (surprise!) and convectively looks very poorly organized. I mentioned yesterday that what will be key is if the system can organize a lot the next few days. Its clear now that the system is going to sputter along and is no longer a good candidate to see a robust TC from. A weak TD or TS? Sure, but its just likely to get ripped apart by the trough in a few days time. 

[Eyewall2005]

What a season... This one should be looked at for sometime.

[thewxmann]

What a season... This one should be looked at for sometime.

 

For both basins.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we went the entire season without seeing a single major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere.

[Ed Lizard]

As expected, recon cancelled, although technically the later flight has just been delayed until tomorrow. 

 

Manuel would have been a major if it had another day before land interaction.

 

GFS suggests another tropical wave pushing in from the Caribbean in about 4 to 5 days, a closed 700 mb circulation passing near the Northern Yucatan, but 700 mb RH and PW forecast says it will have dry air issues and not develop.

[Juliancolton]

I did a bit of number crunching and it seems the Atlantic is at its lowest year-to-date cumulative ACE since 1994, which by today's date had produced just over 11 units. The season ended with a total ACE of 32 units, and we're at just over 23 currently. Just for the sake of comparisons.

[Dunkman]

 

Manuel would have been a major if it had another day before land interaction.

 

 

Yeah but that's been this season hasn't it.  The only favorable environments have been 50 miles from land.  Out in the open ocean there's nothing but trouble.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Manuel is irritating, and by the looks of satellite... the naked swirl that is 95L is racing awfully fast towards the Mexican coastline.

 

I'll say... if convection doesn't blow up during tonight's diurnal maximum to help slow down 95L, this system is dead.

[Srain]

Manuel is irritating, and by the looks of satellite... the naked swirl that is 95L is racing awfully fast towards the Mexican coastline.

 

I'll say... if convection doesn't blow up during tonight's diurnal maximum to help slow down 95L, this system is dead.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE:  DRIFT UP THE MEXICAN COAST

CONFIDENCE:  BELOW AVERAGE -- SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER -- NHC -- GIVES THIS SYSTEM AN 80%

CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS

IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A PORTION OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- AND ASSOCIATED UNDERLYING TRADE WINDS --

GUIDES THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE DAYS, BEFORE AN UPPER

TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FLATTENS THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE OUT OF EXISTENCE AND LEAVING THE SYSTEM IN A REGION OF

DOLDRUMS WITHIN BECALMED FLOW BELAYING MUCH FORWARD MOTION.  WEAK

UPPER TROUGHING -- ADVERTISED BY THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE -- ALONG THE

GULF COAST OPENS THE DOOR TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT IN A FEW DAYS.  A

WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL PLUNDER SOME OF

THE GULF SYSTEM'S MOISTURE, LEADING TO A PRE-TYPE PRECIPITATION

EVENT IN 2-3 DAYS, DEPENDING UPON ITS MAGNITUDE.  SEE WPC QPF

GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL FORECAST.

EVEN THOUGH THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE PARROTS ONE ANOTHER IN RECURVING

THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TEXAS, NHC WAS SPELLBOUND BY THE SIREN SONG OF

THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS DURING THE 17Z MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION

CALL, WITH A FORECAST TRACK THAT WOULD PILLAGE PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S

DISSIPATION.  A BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT LEAVE THE

SYSTEM FOUNDERING OVER THE GULF FOR DAYS, WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.  THE NHC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT

WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  SEE

NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST ON THE SYSTEM'S STATUS.

 

[wxmeddler]

PREFERENCE:  DRIFT UP THE MEXICAN COAST

CONFIDENCE:  BELOW AVERAGE

EVEN THOUGH THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE PARROTS ONE ANOTHER IN RECURVING

THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TEXAS, NHC WAS SPELLBOUND BY THE SIREN SONG OF

THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS DURING THE 17Z MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION

CALL, WITH A FORECAST TRACK THAT WOULD PILLAGE PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S

DISSIPATION.  A BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT LEAVE THE

SYSTEM FOUNDERING OVER THE GULF FOR DAYS, WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.  THE NHC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT

WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

 

Forecaster mud-slinging.

[Ozarkwx]

EVEN THOUGH THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE PARROTS ONE ANOTHER IN RECURVING

THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TEXAS, NHC WAS SPELLBOUND BY THE SIREN SONG OF

THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS DURING THE 17Z MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION

CALL, WITH A FORECAST TRACK THAT WOULD PILLAGE PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S

DISSIPATION.  A BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT LEAVE THE

SYSTEM FOUNDERING OVER THE GULF FOR DAYS, WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.  THE NHC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT

WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  SEE

NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST ON THE SYSTEM'S STATUS.

 

I have never seen anything like that spill out into the NOAA village square.  I guess there are going to be meetings and conference calls now about respectfully offering alternative solutions without name calling.

[wxmx]

And the 12z Euro now joins the GFS camp...which is making the NHC call look good.

[Ed Lizard]

It is Talk like a Pirate Day.

 

Parrots and pillaging and siren songs...

[Santa Claus]

EVEN THOUGH THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE PARROTS ONE ANOTHER IN RECURVING

THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TEXAS, NHC WAS SPELLBOUND BY THE SIREN SONG OF

THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS DURING THE 17Z MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION

CALL, WITH A FORECAST TRACK THAT WOULD PILLAGE PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S

DISSIPATION.

 

You know something's up when people get cutesy in their outlooks/forecasts.

[eurojosh]

You know something's up when people get cutesy in their outlooks/forecasts.

 

Ah, makes sense.

 

But then - how do you know if you're a pirate?

 

You just "arrrrr!"

[Srain]

From BRO...

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SHIVER ME TIMBERS! THIS
BE ONE ANNOYING FORECAST TO CRACK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT
IN THE LONG TERM BRINGS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
ASSORTED PIECES ARE AS FOLLOWS: FIRST...THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING ALONG THE
FIRST COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL TEXAS. SECOND: THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES ON IT WNW TREK
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIRD...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MANUEL
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE TROUGH PICKING UP THE GULF
DISTURBANCE TO THE ADVANCING TROUGH LEAVING BEHIND THE GULF
DISTURBANCE AND A PORTION OF THE ENERGY FROM MANUEL ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE POPS FOR SATURDAY ARE FURTHER
INCREASED TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT...WITH SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FORECAST DEPENDS HIGHLY ON
WHERE THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
FINALLY TRACKS. WITH THE LOW LURKING JUST OFF T THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...THE FRONT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. PLUS WITH ANY RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM MANUEL IN THE VICINITY...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE NUDGED
THE FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
 

[Ed Lizard]

And the 12z Euro now joins the GFS camp...which is making the NHC call look good.

 

Hour 156 a weak low/barely perceptible 850 mb vort max is making landfall near the international frontier after spending 3 days slowly weakening offshore, with some remnant rains reaching SETX in 180 hours.

 

I'm ok with that if it verifies.  Not to mention the predicted 2.7 inch rainfall this weekend sans TCs just from the cold front.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE:  DRIFT UP THE MEXICAN COAST

CONFIDENCE:  BELOW AVERAGE -- SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER -- NHC -- GIVES THIS SYSTEM AN 80%

CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS

IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A PORTION OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- AND ASSOCIATED UNDERLYING TRADE WINDS --

GUIDES THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE DAYS, BEFORE AN UPPER

TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FLATTENS THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE OUT OF EXISTENCE AND LEAVING THE SYSTEM IN A REGION OF

DOLDRUMS WITHIN BECALMED FLOW BELAYING MUCH FORWARD MOTION.  WEAK

UPPER TROUGHING -- ADVERTISED BY THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE -- ALONG THE

GULF COAST OPENS THE DOOR TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT IN A FEW DAYS.  A

WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL PLUNDER SOME OF

THE GULF SYSTEM'S MOISTURE, LEADING TO A PRE-TYPE PRECIPITATION

EVENT IN 2-3 DAYS, DEPENDING UPON ITS MAGNITUDE.  SEE WPC QPF

GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL FORECAST.

EVEN THOUGH THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE PARROTS ONE ANOTHER IN RECURVING

THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TEXAS, NHC WAS SPELLBOUND BY THE SIREN SONG OF

THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS DURING THE 17Z MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION

CALL, WITH A FORECAST TRACK THAT WOULD PILLAGE PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S

DISSIPATION.  A BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT LEAVE THE

SYSTEM FOUNDERING OVER THE GULF FOR DAYS, WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.  THE NHC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT

WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  SEE

NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST ON THE SYSTEM'S STATUS.

 

 

 

That's a bit hilarious... I'm going to agree more with the NHC here...except I'm decently sure that the word 'pillage' is a bit exaggerative.

 

There's still the chance something bigger happens as they have discussed, but things need to start happening a lot faster for that to occur.

[Santa Claus]

From BRO...

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SHIVER ME TIMBERS! THIS

BE ONE ANNOYING FORECAST TO CRACK.

 

Good lord.  I can't wait to see what they cook up for the anniversary of Edgar Allen Poe's death on October 7th.

 

BUT THE CYCLONE, SPINNING LONELY ON THE RIDGE'S EDGE, TURNED ONLY

TO THE WEST, AS IF BLOCKED BY THAT ONE HIGH SITTING OFF ATLANTIC SHORE

TRACKED TO LANDFALL BY THE EURO, TO FLOOD MANY A FLORIDA BOROUGH,

WHILE THE CANADIAN WENT TOO FAR, PONDERED 900 MILLIBARS

FORECASTERS SALIVATED O'ER A PLETHORA OF MODEL GORE

YET JOSH PROTESTED, "THERE'S NO TIGHT CORE"

 

INIT 75 MPH

12H 50 MPH...WEAK AND WEARY

24H...NEVERMORE

[wxmx]

There's a small burst of convection south of the center, and the swirl is losing definition...it appears we'll have another relocation south, closer to the mid level energy.

[Drz1111]

Good god, man, at least try to keep meter.

But the cyclone, spinning, spinning

Heat capacity is wringing

From the surface waters, bringing

Up the cold from ocean's floor

Thus, the hurricane will weaken

Not the rainfall boon we're seeking

Leaving one to wonder when

A storm will threaten at our door

Quoth the Euro, "Nevermore."

Good lord.  I can't wait to see what they cook up for the anniversary of Edgar Allen Poe's death on October 7th.

 

BUT THE CYCLONE, SPINNING LONELY ON THE RIDGE'S EDGE, TURNED ONLY

TO THE WEST, AS IF BLOCKED BY THAT ONE HIGH SITTING OFF ATLANTIC SHORE

TRACKED TO LANDFALL BY THE EURO, TO FLOOD MANY A FLORIDA BOROUGH,

WHILE THE CANADIAN WENT TOO FAR, PONDERED 900 MILLIBARS

FORECASTERS SALIVATED O'ER A PLETHORA OF MODEL GORE

YET JOSH PROTESTED, "THERE'S NO TIGHT CORE"

 

INIT 75 MPH

12H 50 MPH...WEAK AND WEARY

24H...NEVERMORE

[Santa Claus]

Good god, man, at least try to keep meter.

 

I prefer working in English units.

[HurricaneJosh]

Good lord.  I can't wait to see what they cook up for the anniversary of Edgar Allen Poe's death on October 7th.

 

BUT THE CYCLONE, SPINNING LONELY ON THE RIDGE'S EDGE, TURNED ONLY

TO THE WEST, AS IF BLOCKED BY THAT ONE HIGH SITTING OFF ATLANTIC SHORE

TRACKED TO LANDFALL BY THE EURO, TO FLOOD MANY A FLORIDA BOROUGH,

WHILE THE CANADIAN WENT TOO FAR, PONDERED 900 MILLIBARS

FORECASTERS SALIVATED O'ER A PLETHORA OF MODEL GORE

YET JOSH PROTESTED, "THERE'S NO TIGHT CORE"

 

INIT 75 MPH

12H 50 MPH...WEAK AND WEARY

24H...NEVERMORE

 

 

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

It's official.  All tropical cyclone forecasters/enthusiasts have gone crackers (polly want one?).

[Santa Claus]

It's official.  All tropical cyclone forecasters/enthusiasts have gone crackers (polly want one?).

 

I enjoy learning from you guys who are, at the very least, degreed meteorologists (and quite a few of you who have gone far beyond that).  I am way out of my depth trying to forecast the basin more than like a day in advance and mostly just enjoy the FSU phase space diagrams for the pretty colors.  In the absence of action I hope I can play comic relief   But I promise if anything interesting starts to happen I will be here to remark about how convection-y the convection looks on IR for Subtropical Storm Jerry.

[Srain]

It's official.  All tropical cyclone forecasters/enthusiasts have gone crackers (polly want one?).

Nah. Just National Pirates Day. A little levity after this season deserves an "argh".

[wxmx]

Well, 95L has relocated further south, or so it appears...wondering what will be the effect of that