HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 How many Campeche Crawlers have we had this year? I have: TS Barry TS Fernand TD 8 H Ingrid And possibly this Jerry thing. The end-of-season track map is gonna need to have one of them fancy, zoomed-in box things to show all the hawt action down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The LLC and MLC are still sheared with the LLC being NE of the MLC (which has the thunderstorms coming off the coast now). CIMSS derived vorticity shows a bit of a tilt to the SE from the low to mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 what's crazy is we haven't even had any model porn to look at this season, i can't remember the last time we had a trop wave that the gfs or euro blew up or even showed SOME sign of hope, it's bad when even the models can't give us entertainment. i guess it shows the improvement in the gfs at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 CIMSS derived vorticity shows a bit of a tilt to the SE from the low to mid levels. Yes. I meant SE, I don't know why I put N, I think I was thinking from MLC to LLC and not vice versa and confused myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 So uh, what are the chances for a hurricane for the 3rd year in a row to hit the eastern seaboard? Has this ever been done before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 So uh, what are the chances for a hurricane for the 3rd year in a row to hit the eastern seaboard? Has this ever been done before? 03 Isabel 04 Gaston 05 Ophelia (Frances and Jeane if you count S Florida) The later 2 weren't much. There were also 3 in 1954 Carol, Edna and Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 03 Isabel 04 Gaston 05 Ophelia (Frances and Jeane if you count S Florida) The later 2 weren't much. There were also 3 in 1954 Carol, Edna and Hazel. If you want to get really technical, Ophelia 2005 and Sandy 2012 were not hurricane landfalls, although they each produced hurricane winds on the coast while they were offshore hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Oh, the record for successive years with East Coast hurricane landfalls happened in the 1950s and won't be exceeded for many years-- see below. I left off the intensities because these are all being reanalyzed now: 1952 - Able (SC) 1953 - Barbara (NC), Carol (ME) (Note: Carol may get downgraded.) 1954 - Carol (NY, CT, RI), Edna (MA, ME), Hazel (SC, NC) 1955 - Connie (NC, VA), Diane (NC), Ione (NC) The early/mid-1950s was just a really active time for the East Coast. Given that Irene was a weak Cat 1 and Sandy 2012 wasn't technically even a hurricane landfall, we're nowhere near any kind of record territory right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Oh, the record for successive years with East Coast hurricane landfalls happened in the 1950s and won't be exceeded for many years-- see below. I left off the intensities because these are all being reanalyzed now: 1952 - Able (SC) 1953 - Barbara (NC), Carol (ME) (Note: Carol may get downgraded.) 1954 - Carol (NY, CT, RI), Edna (MA, ME), Hazel (SC, NC) 1955 - Connie (NC, VA), Diane (NC), Ione (NC) The mid-1950s was just a really active time for the East Coast. Given that Irene was a weak Cat 1 and Sandy 2012 wasn't technically even a hurricane landfall, we're nowhere near any kind of record territory right now. Sandy not a hurricane? Wasn't there a mountain of evidence posted here when Sandy hit NJ that Sandy was indeed still warm core and still a hurricane? Or at least still tropical in nature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 Sandy not a hurricane? Wasn't there a mountain of evidence posted here when Sandy hit NJ that Sandy was indeed still warm core and still a hurricane? Or at least still tropical in nature? Nope. The official NHC verdict was not a hurricane at landfall in NJ. However, it counts as a hurricane hit for NY because it produced hurricane winds in NY while it was offshore and still a hurricane. Keep in mind that a hit is not the same thing as a landfall: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Nope. The official NHC verdict was not a hurricane at landfall in NJ. However, it counts as a hurricane hit for NY because it produced hurricane winds in NY while it was offshore and still a hurricane. Keep in mind that a hit is not the same thing as a landfall: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html For the record, you can take a look at my weather station data and you can see that temperature and dew point increase and pressure falls rapidly as the center approaches. While not necessarily enough to declare warm-core, its rather significant and unusual for a mid-ladtitude cyclone in late October. My wind data was rather bad during this event because of tree obstructions so ignore that. Sorry if OT. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNJCAPEM5&graphspan=day&month=10&day=29&year=2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 For the record, you can take a look at my weather station data and you can see that temperature and dew point increase and pressure falls rapidly as the center approaches. While not necessarily enough to declare warm-core, its rather significant and unusual for a mid-ladtitude cyclone in late October. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNJCAPEM5&graphspan=day&month=10&day=29&year=2012 Oh, I don't doubt it! And, just to be clear: this is the NHC's verdict, not mine. That having been said, their verdict makes sense to me-- because the cyclone just didn't have a tropical-cyclone structure when it crossed the coast: no eye, no eyewall, no core convection, an enormous RMW (well over 100 mi), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Think they cancel all the flights tomorrow about 9 am Miami time, or just the first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 lol what a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 I'm going to enter October with a clean mindset-- as if the rest of the season didn't happen. I say this because October is in some ways my favorite month-- not just in the EPAC (where it is the month for major landfalls) but also in the NATL, where we've seen some extremely hawt landfalls since 1960: Hattie 1961 (Cat 4 - BZ) Hilda 1964 (Cat 3 - LA) Inez 1966 (Cat 3 - MX) Joan 1988 (Cat 4 - NI) Opal 1995 (Cat 3 - MX) Roxanne 1995 (Cat 3 - MX) Iris 2001 (Cat 4 - BZ) Wilma 2005 (Cat 4 - MX; Cat 3 - USA) And there've been some almost-hawt close calls, like Keith 2000 (BZ) and Lili 2002 (LA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 lol what a mess. They call that a squashed spider, but Rorschach, I see a scorpion. Usually a sign of weak steering. GFDL usually errs high on intensity, if the GFDL and ensembles aren't excited, hard to see this doing much, but that is just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I thought there might be some subtropical garbage coming out of that low to the northwest of Humberto but only the CMC has any vague hint of that kind of evolution and I'll be honest I'm just really bored, you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 The 00Z GFS shows something vaguely interesting moving NW from the W Cairbbean and across the Gulf around Days 10-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The seasons strongest hurricane so far is 85 mph, which also matches 1968's strongest hurricane at 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 0z Euro track looks mildly interestin' through the Central Gulf. I wonder what synoptic factors are holding this one back in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 The seasons strongest hurricane so far is 85 mph, which also matches 1968's strongest hurricane at 85 mph. Gladys is currently considered a Cat-2 landfall for FL, which is just one of many examples of the discrepancies between the best-track data and the official landfall list. Reanalysis will either up the winds in best track or reduce the category in the landfall list, so everything matches. So, it could be that 1968 actually had a stronger 'cane than 75 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 For the record, you can take a look at my weather station data and you can see that temperature and dew point increase and pressure falls rapidly as the center approaches. While not necessarily enough to declare warm-core, its rather significant and unusual for a mid-ladtitude cyclone in late October. My wind data was rather bad during this event because of tree obstructions so ignore that. Sorry if OT. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNJCAPEM5&graphspan=day&month=10&day=29&year=2012 P.S. Cool pressure trace from Sandy! 952 mb is pretty hawt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 P.S. Cool pressure trace from Sandy! 952 mb is pretty hawt! It was pretty intense but it was not a true blue cane; good thing I did not live on the beach. Storm surge was New Orleans-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Author Share Posted September 19, 2013 It was pretty intense but it was not a true blue cane; good thing I did not live on the beach. Storm surge was New Orleans-esque. Oh, yeah-- tropical or not, the surge was spectacular in magnitude. I noticed your winds weren't crazy high. I assume it's because you don't have open exposure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 We are going to break the record for the 1995 to present +AMO phase of no major hurricane until 9-21 set in 2002. We are also going to be among the lowest ACE years of the satellite era. But at least we won't finish with a lowest ACE of this period recorded in 1983 at 17. No major hurricanes by 9-15: 2013....23 so far which is 34% of normal 2002....67................El Nino..... 1994....32................El Nino....-AMO 1987....34................El Nino.... 1986....36................El Nino....-AMO 1982....32................El Nino...-AMO 1973....48..............................-AMO 1972....36................El Nino...-AMO 1968....45........weak El Nino ..-AMO 1962....36..............................-AMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 It was pretty intense but it was not a true blue cane; good thing I did not live on the beach. Storm surge was New Orleans-esque. I dont have the personal weather station to prove it, but without question I recall it was noticeably warmer and tropical feeling during the evening at the height of the storm while it was making land fall south of me. The SE winds began mixing down better at this point with 70-80 mph gusts. For you it is interesting that you were south of where land fall took place with north/nw winds and your temperature was rising on its approach. With that said the highest temperature doesnt exactly line up with the lowest pressure, I'd say that could be demonstrating the extra-tropical transition that was taking place. Anyhow, I'm not impressed with 95L this morning, expected it to look better after i left yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Anyhow, I'm not impressed with 95L this morning, expected it to look better after i left yesterday I agree. While it at least has more convection than yesterday evening, it doesn't look as organized as it did then. Think I'll just watch Usagi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Really? We're rehashing Sandy AGAIN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Really? We're rehashing Sandy AGAIN? Lol active season eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I think 70% could be a touch optimistic on 95L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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