Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[Superstorm93]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHETUMAL MEXICO IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.

 

[Srain]

Once again the Yucatan continues to offer surprises with disturbances organizing as they cross this Peninsula. 95L appears to be on the way to a TD tomorrow and strengthen once the dry air to its N is replaced with higher PW's and the broad surface low tightens up.

[Floydbuster]

September, Gulf of Mexico, no reason this shouldn't have a shot of becoming atleast a Category 1 hurricane.

 

Opal had similar genesis.

[Floydbuster]

[Derecho!]

It's interesting that there isn't a single 18Z GFS ensemble member that actually goes ashore in Mexico after the Yucatan. Of course, there's only one that makes it over land after the Yucatan at all (to New Orleans, after a long and circuitous wander).

[phil882]

oin.png

 

I was wondering when somebody would post this This is potentially a good analog for track, given the gyre origins and the potential to be picked up by the mid-latitude trough. Again if this system is sluggish the next 24 hours and becomes a strong system in the BOC, things get very interesting in the medium range. 

[wxsmwhrms]

I was wondering when somebody would post this This is potentially a good analog for track, given the gyre origins and the potential to be picked up by the mid-latitude trough. Again if this system is sluggish the next 24 hours and becomes a strong system in the BOC, things get very interesting in the medium range. 

Yeah, Phil.  This is just gut instinct, but based on the pattern here I am guessing there are two realistic scenarios based on the orientation of this trough (assuming development, of course):  1)  It just keeps going slowly west-northwest and makes LF in eastern Mexico.  2) it gets picked up and eventually goes in somewhere along the NE Gulf coast a la Opal.  The other alternative is it doesn't make the Mexican coast and gets left behind like the Euro shows - but my experience is that the models try to do that a lot in the Gulf, and it only very rarely actually happens.

[Superstorm93]

I guess one could make an argument that 95L is very close to tropical depression status as it moves just NW of Belize this evening. The developing convection is right over the low level circulation and the eastern flank over the NW Caribbean is looking healthy as well. Shouldn't have that much trouble once it reaches the Gulf. 

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952013 09/18/13 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 52 58 63 67 70 72 74
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 31 35 41 49 55 60 64 67 69 71
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 30 32 38 47 56 66 74 80 84 87

[phil882]

Yeah, Phil.  This is just gut instinct, but based on the pattern here I am guessing there are two realistic scenarios based on the orientation of this trough (assuming development, of course):  1)  It just keeps going slowly west-northwest and makes LF in eastern Mexico.  2) it gets picked up and eventually goes in somewhere along the NE Gulf coast a la Opal.  The other alternative is it doesn't make the Mexican coast and gets left behind like the Euro shows - but my experience is that the models try to do that a lot in the Gulf, and it only very rarely actually happens.

 

The left in the Gulf scenario become a greater possibility if the storm remains on the small size (not likely given the large envelope already). There are the freak cases like Roxanne (also 1995) where it literally gets trapped and dies in the BOC via dry air and upwelled cold SSTs, but thats rare. 

[phil882]

And before anyone gets too worked up about the fact 95L will travel along the track of Ingrid where it upwelled lots of cool SSTs, it actually had a limited impact. 

 

Take for example this Buoy @ 22.203 N 94.000 W that would have been directly impacted by the wind field of Ingrid. Only a .5C temperature drop. The relatively deep thermocline helped prevent a SST disaster that Nate was. 

 

[AutoPenalti]

Damn it, what will it take for a cane to hit SFL? Seriously, I'll do anything for a cane that hasn't hit this part of the region since 2005.

[tmagan]

And before anyone gets too worked up about the fact 95L will travel along the track of Ingrid where it upwelled lots of cool SSTs, it actually had a limited impact. 

 

Take for example this Buoy @ 22.203 N 94.000 W that would have been directly impacted by the wind field of Ingrid. Only a .5C temperature drop. The relatively deep thermocline helped prevent a SST disaster that Nate was. 

 

 

Is there a map of contoured thermocline depth?

[Ed Lizard]

Is there a map of contoured thermocline depth?

No

 

 

[phil882]

No

 

 

 

 

The depth of the 26 degree isotherm is really what we want to look at anyway, since this shows you the depth of sufficient TC sustaining SSTs. There is a nice warm eddy that out in the central GOM right now thats actually has the sea-level heights above normal over a large portion of the Western GOM. 

[Amped]

Manuel reforming in time to shear 95l also.

[OHweather]

Manuel reforming in time to shear 95l also.

I'm not sure if Manuel will be nearly as big of an issue for 95L as it was for Ingrid. You can see the outflow and associated stronger upper level SWrlies heading into Texas well north of the Bay of Campeche. It looks like there may be an upper level trough axis immediately to the NW of 95L on water vapor imagery but the GFS remains insistent on intensifying the anti-cyclone over 95L once it hits water and rendering this trough axis a non-issue.

 

[bluewave]

The one thing that we can say is that this season has been really consistent. The two main

choices on the tropical menu have been CV TS to Cat 1 systems along with the BOC perma-gyre 

spin ups of the same general strength.

 

 

[Sickman]

Damn it, what will it take for a cane to hit SFL? Seriously, I'll do anything for a cane that hasn't hit this part of the region since 2005.

Obviously you're not wishing hard enough.

[wxsmwhrms]

95L is probably not too far away from being classified as a depression right now, given the surface obs/visible imagery, although most of the robust convection is well to the E of the center.  1005 mb MSLP at Campeche.  It definitely seems to be coming off the Yucatan farther N than the other systems so far this year.  The overall track and intensity scenarios don't look like they have changed a whole lot with the 00Z information.

[Srain]

Surface observations, Sabancuy, MX radar and High Resolution Visible satellite imagery suggest the surface feature associated with 95L has move offshore of Campeche, MX into the Bay of Campeche. This is a bit higher in latitude than previous systems have emerged off the Yucatan this year. 95L remains highly sheared with most of the deep convection displaced to the E. Once the upper trough and dry air associated with that troughs weakens later today into tonight, conditions appear favorable for development. I believe we will see TS Jerry in the next 24-36 hours somewhere ESE of Tampico.

[Ed Lizard]

Is the 3pm CDT recon mission for today still on?  Holy Ambiguous Language, Batman!

 

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181530
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 18 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-109 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 19/1800Z                    A. 20/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1530Z                    C. 20/0930Z
       D. 22.0N 94.3W                 D. 23.0N 96.0W
       E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2100Z        E. 20/1130Z TO 20/1530Z
       F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT        F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  CONTINUE 12 HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
       IS A THREAT.

    3. REMARKS: RESEARCH
       NA872 TO FLY DEPARTING 19/1100Z, 68 DROPS PLANNED
       AREA BOUNDED BY 27N 88W, 27N 96.5W, 20N 96W, AND 20N 90.5W
       ON STATION 10 HOURS.

    4. SUSSEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NA871 TO AREA ETD 20/1400Z, NO DROPS.

    5. ADDED: MISSIONS TASKED FROM TCPOD WERE CANX BY NHC AT 18/13Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

 

 

[ineedsnow]

recon is flying today

Is the 3pm CDT recon mission for today still on?  Holy Ambiguous Language, Batman!

[wxmx]

It's kinda looking Roxanne '95 'ish. Troughs missing it, and cold fronts shoving it S. Dry air and shear finally killed the poor thing.

[Akeem the African Dream]

This rainstorm is going to waste a lot of peoples time over the next week.

[phil882]

Is the 3pm CDT recon mission for today still on?  Holy Ambiguous Language, Batman!

 

recon is flying today

 

No. Recon missions were canceled today due to the poor current appearance of 95L. 

[Ed Lizard]

This rainstorm is going to waste a lot of peoples time over the next week.

 

I think there is enough shear to push dry air at it.  It has West winds South of it, but the sloppy surface center has most convection to its East, and the West side is producing arcus.

[Akeem the African Dream]

I think there is enough shear to push dry air at it.  It has West winds South of it, but the sloppy surface center has most convection to its East, and the West side is producing arcus.

 

 

I just don't see any compelling reason to believe that this system will ever get its act together to be anything more than a Tropical Storm that is lopsided on the east side.

[wxsmwhrms]

I think there is enough shear to push dry air at it.  It has West winds South of it, but the sloppy surface center has most convection to its East, and the West side is producing arcus.

 

Obviously, we don't have any observed soundings in the area, but the dry air currently on the NW side of the system must be in relatively limited layers in the mid/upper levels, given that the sounder retrievals show that PW values are 2-2.5".  That may allow what dry air does exist to mix out.  Given that the shear vector is supposed to turn more easterly, eventually convection could start to wrap more around the west side.  We'll see.

[phil882]

Yea right now the air over the GOM is not that unfavorable thermodynamically...

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

95L appears to be under some northwesterly shear.. Looks like mid-level circulation may be over water now with all the convection still over the Yucatan. Tough to be sure though... anyone else see a structure moving southeastward through all the convection up to the northeast of 95L?  Can't tell if this is an arc cloud/gravity wavy/frontal boundary? Its not moving too fast.